British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - June 30th 
Races :-
  • 261: Musselburgh 7:55, 5f Maiden (5)
  • 262: Pontefract 3:15, 6f Conditions (3) "Spindrifter Stakes"
  • 263: Windsor 6:40, 5f Maiden Fillies' (5)
  • 264: Wolverhampton AW 4:30, 7.1f Maiden (5)

  •   June 30th Summary : 
     

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Happy Forever  (Windsor, M Botti, All Debuts)
    • Dancing Delta  (Windsor, WR Muir, 5-6f Debuts)
    • Southoffrance  (Windsor, WGM Turner, Long Shot)
    • All three qualifiers are at Windsor and represent different approaches to the 2yo season and getting juveniles ready for debut. Bill (WGM) Turner enjoys being the underdog so much that he has never pressed on to a higher level of competitiveness and quite possibly likes the excuses of "cheap horses, what do you expect..." & "..any win is a good one when you are competing against the big stables..".
    • This mentality leads him to get his 2yos ready for the first 2 weeks of the season by which time they will already have taken part in paired trials and be well drilled. This early batch of 2yos will include the usable ones and the best of them will win on debut. The rest of the season after early April is usually a string of poor debuts from poor horses. He also looks to win sellers & claimers later in the season and you get the impression he knows "that's his place".
    • This season has been typical with 9 debuts by April 9th including a debut win in the first race of the season. The six debuts since than haven't recorded a positive rating. Southoffrance doesn't have a 5f pedigree but he starts most of his horses at that disatnace anyway.
    • Willie Muir has a wider range of horses from cheaper runrarounds through to very expensive ones. He chooses a few obvious 2yos to run early and he has his 2yos competent for debut without them being wound up (throughout the season). The three he ran early this year include two that have now won (3TO & 4TO). The other (Entrancer) is probably the best of the three and had placed but has run too freely and this has hampered his development. 
    • So, he's showing a typical year and his string should be at a higher average level of preparedness for debut. The better ones can win FTO and tend to be at the longer odds that make it profitable to follow him over a long period although the number of debut winners is low. He introduced the solid looking Defector (half brother to Stubbs Art) at the course last week with some stuff about "..the best 2yo I've had since Averti..." stuff. He tends to be a bit too gushing about his 2yos and Big Robert (2yo debut winner and also ran in various major races as an older horse) was the next Nijinsky in the hype in his year, for example. The tiny, but speedy early, Enodoc was talked up last year and ran in Listed and Group races - he's currently unsuccessfully touring the gaffs as a 3yo while running off OR70ish, you get the idea.
    • We are now into the period when we should be looking for him to fluke his 50/1 winner with a good one but Dancing Delta doesn't really look like that on profile. Retained for just £1,000 at the sales and a full sister to a placed runner in 2007 who cost £2,000.
    • Marco Botti is very sparing with his 2yo runners and they they are at a high level, within their overall ability, on debut. In his first two seasons with a smaller set of 2yos the earliest debuts have been the solid ones and compete to win FTO. He has more 2yos now and we should see more runners and presumably less of a 'tail' of garbage and more competitive ones.
    • So far he has run two cheaper fillies who have made the first 4 on debut. His first runner with Solo Attempt was too wound up on debut in the preliminaries but still managed to finsih second. She won STO after being mounted in a closed box so presumably she is still 'tricky' but manageable. His other runner Kitty Allen is a lesser physical type than Solo Attempt and 4th on debut (which she achieved) was as much as she could have hoped for even at her best. She has been well beaten since.
    • We haven't seen a real better one from him yet but when he does produce one it ought to go close to winning FTO. Happy Forever is out of a superstar mare who won Grade 1s of 5 seasons in New Zealand and then the US. She hasn't produced anything worthwhile yet but this one cost a highish 85,000gns as a 2yo at the breeze-ups. If you add the preparation she had for the 2yo sale to what Mr Botti has done since you would assume she's going to show most of what she's capable of here.
    • The Windsor event looks winable for a good debut runner. Like For Like is a smaller, skinny, model and we've seen what she can do even when in good condition. She's been beaten as favourite behind Solo Attempt and her last place at the course was moderate. Willie Haggas has said that Jargelle is a small filly and usable without being a star and her debut would confirm that. So she'll set an ok standard without being frightening after a reasonable debut. Boho Chic was behind Jargelle FTO and comes from a low class family that Mr Beckett always gets to peak STO so whe should be closer her.
    • Gosden's Anjuna ran better than her finishing position would suggest at Leicester FTO. She was drawn in the outside stall in centre course and went wide at the break (horse's often do this because they think they are going back behind the stalls for more loading practice). She then ran free for 2-3 furlongs and pressed the winner until the stiff part of the climb. She then looked immature and got intimidated by other fillies rolling around and into her and the jockey eased her. She ought to be much better her and is presumably better than Like For Like and perhaps than Jargelle.
    • In summary, a good race set-up for Happy Forever to win if she's a bit above average despite the low draw (the stands' rail is a big advantage at the course on firmer going). Anjuna should improve notably and Like For Like (paddock reviewed) likely to be poor value and Jargelle (not pr'vd) just an average chance. Anjuna probably better value than either of those two given her debut run 'reads' so poorly in form terms. And we should see a good step forward from Boho Chic to see what level she can reach. 


    ~ EDIN 7:55 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    3 ELDORADO DAYS [40] - 3 36 2 7 35
    5 MINTOE [37] - 2 21 1 21 33
    4 MESYAAL [32] - 3 30 1 30 34
    2 COMPTON FORD [20] - 3 15 2 -44 29
    1 BLOW YOUR MIND [18] - 3 18 2 18
    6 VISTERRE [17] +5 3 11 1 11 35
    7 WEE BIZZOM [2] +5 1 2

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    ~ PFCT 3:15 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    3 INDIAN ART [50] +2 4 51 3 30 35
    5 REVE DE SOLEIL [46] +5 4 48 3 38 32
    4 IN TRANSIT [41] +2 7 41 6 25 34
    2 SENATORIAL [38] - 5 38 4 38 37
    1 KEEPTHEBOATAFLOAT [33] - 3 28 2 -21 35

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    ~ WDSR 6:40 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    4 HAPPY FOREVER [40] - 1 35
    6 JARGELLE [36] - 2 31 1 31 40
    1 ANJUNA [35] - 2 2 1 2 43
    7 LIKE FOR LIKE [31] - 4 35 1 35 35
    2 BOHO CHIC [30] - 2 16 1 16 34
    8 QUEEN OF THEBES [23] - 1 38
    12 TOUCHING [21] - 1 35
    5 IMAGINARY DIVA [17] - 1 36
    10 SILVER SALSA [16] - 1 30
    11 SOUTHOFFRANCE [14] - 1 10
    3 DANCING DELTA [8] - 1 30
    9 RUBY TALLULAH [7] - 1 22

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    ~ WTON 4:30 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    10 TALKING HANDS [40] - 3 36 2 8 31
    8 STIRLING CASTLE [39] - 1 29
    7 SEMINOLE [38] - 2 28 1 28 43
    6 SCARTH HILL [27] - 2 15 1 15 25
    5 CONGREGATION [14] - 2 -6 1 -6 43
    3 ARTESIUM [10] - 2 -8 1 -8
    9 SUNNY FUTURE [9] - 1 12
    2 AMAZING BLUE SKY [6] - 1 3
    12 SHAWS DIAMOND [5] +5 2 -9 1 -9
    1 ABUELITO JOHN [4] - 2 -18 1 -18 69
    4 BLUSHING BERTIE [1] - 2 -68 1 -68
    11 BELLA OLYMPIA [0] +5 2 -23 1 -23 30

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