British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Preview - July 13th 
Races :-
  • 335: Haydock 2:50, 6f Maiden (5)

  •   July 13th Summary : 
    • A difficult week to keep a handle on the racing what with heavy rain producing odd results .This has been a really big factor this week and there's nothing like a long dry spell and Good-Firm going for weeks to see understandable form and results. Add to that draw biases, front runners' bias at Newmarket, Royal Ascot form being exposed as over-rated in various ways and a number of interesting newcomers winning at longer odds to make a week to test the resolve. This preview will have some notes on the week added during Sunday but let's consider the race at Haydock.
    • This is to be run on Heavy going with 'Soft' places. If the bulk of the course is heavy then why bother adding the sop of it being a bit less wet in areas? Anyway, more ground in which a surprise result caused by a runner handling the ground well is more possible. Those that have run have not achived a great deal and set a moderate standard for a newcomer to reach. Captain Scooby was a relative short SP and a solid debut by his trainer's standards when 3rd in a maiden at Beverley on debut. He was well drawn in 8 and the field was not strong which probably contributed to that. The horse just in front of him has been beaten twice since in ordinary (i.e. mostly moderate) northern events. Those close behind have achived little other than a minor win for Calley Ho who has since been beaten in a claimer. So, a mixed story and he should improve his rating but not a strong standard and perhaps not much above claimer level at best.
    • Secret City was third in a small field.maiden at York FTO and, as is often the case, that was a thin race in quality terms for the venue behind the useful front pair. He is probably best judged on his poor effort STO when 17/2 on SP despite being in a low ability race at Yarmouth. Another who doesn't appeal as anything other than a moderate level. What else in those with previous form? Well Olympic Dream ran in the Brocklesby for Richard Fahey but ran appallingly and was no better at 12/1 at Carlisle when he finally reappeared. He ought to be better than he has shown but without Paddock Review the call is to pass him over. Silent Hero runs for a major stable but has shown nothing worthwhile to date. Hopelessly inexperienced on debut he was adrift early. In a slow race at Newmarket he finished well back and another where a great leap forward would be a real surprise.
    • Of some interest would be Who Art Thou who is a relatively expensive US purchase for his trainer. He started at 100/1 in a big field at Newbury on debut and never figured but looked an OR70+ rater on paddock review but notably young mentally. His trainer knows how good his 2yos are before they run so that 100/1 SP is a niggle and perhaps he has a 'hole' in him. But with a solid physical report and a solid jockey booked he's one to really check for positives from the pre-race betting.
    • All of which means that the newcomers may well have more trouble handling the going than the previous runners unless Who Art Thou is here to win. There are three breeze up sales (i.e. the 2yo sales earlier this year) graduates and the most expensive was Striker Torres who cost Reg Bond (Monsieur Bond, Bond City and all that) 100,000 guineas and runs for Bryan Smart. He was seen at the yearling sales and seen as just a usable sprinter at the average maiden winner level. A good question would be why the horse is making his debut so late? In recent seasons the best and most precocious 2yos would already have run for the trainer and the best might well have won on debut. He has shown the same pattern this year with three debut winners by May 16th and lesser debuts of late. 
    • He does introduce the odd better type into July but debut wins then are rare. The filly Sirenuse who was a relatively short 3/1 on her July 1st debut at Thirsk is supposed to be better than his Royal Ascot second Spin Cycle. She led her field for 5f before fading in the last furlong and seems likely to run over 5f next time and perhaps the hype will prove to be true. She's by new sire Exceed And Excel who is building a solid record to add a positive to her balance. Anyway, to expect Striker Torres to win here FTO you would need to know why he hasn't run yet and want to see some real positives in the market. Not just the he-cost-a-lot-and-is-trained-by-Smart type positives (perhaps 3/1 & under in this group)
    • Toldeo Gold cost 51,000 as a 2yo but runs for a trainer who hadn't had a debut winner for ages until a late season accident last year. He's by the sire Needwood Balde who didn't do much at 2yo depsite being trained by master precocious juvenile handler Bryan McMahon. He's had one seller win to date from a lot of runs and the signs are his progeny will need time to get going. So, positives for tracking but not for today. Which leaves two other newcomers for trainer's who do get debut winners. 
    • David Simcock is in his 5th season with a licence and when he started what his horses did on debut was what they were. The preparation before debut was through. The last two seasons suggest he's changed a little bit with no debut win in 2007 although only 3 winners overall so perhaps the quality was lacking. The best runner finished 2nd FTO at 20/1 to hint at him still being a 'strong debut' type with the right material. He's a trainer who has a lot of fizzy attitude types and sweating FTO and this often goes along with the full preparation types.
    • This year he started with a 66/1 4th on debut and a 16/1 2nd. His last newcomer won earlier this week in heavy going at Ripon to confirm tje view that if the material is right the preparation will enable them to compete to a high level on debut. Desert Phantom is a 50,000 2yo purchase bythe good US sire Arch and overall the profile is for a good debut here.
    • James Given is another full preparer for debut and the inate ability is usually apparent there. The SP usually bears little relation to the performance expected. Real Dandy has a solid pedigree although the dam has not produced a winner recently and he was retained at the sales. A difficult one to judge before the paddock information and the market unlikely to be helpful.
    • In summary, those with previous runs do not appeal unless Who Art Thou has some positive vibes on the day. Striker Torres is unlikely to be value because of the connections and Desert Phantom & perhaps Real Dandy more each-way material in a tricky race on slop.
    • [Short notes on the last week's events to follow, time permitting]

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • None Today.

    ~ HYDK 2:50 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    2 DESERT PHANTOM [34] - 1 36
    10 WHO ART THOU [32] - 2 -23 1 -23 23
    5 REAL DANDY [30] - 1 23
    8 STRIKER TORRES [29] - 1 35
    1 CAPTAIN SCOOBY [28] - 2 19 1 19 20
    6 SECRET CITY [22] - 3 17 1 17 32
    3 OLYMPIC DREAM [20] - 3 4 2 -29 32
    7 SILENT HERO [20] - 3 6 2 -24 42
    9 TOLEDO GOLD [7] - 1 14
    4 PICCOLO EXPRESS [4] - 1
    11 SAMPOWER ROSE [0] +5 2 -30 1 -30 69

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