British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - July 14th 
Races :-
  • 336: Ayr 2:40, 6f Maiden (5)
  • 337: Windsor 6:30, 5f Maiden (4)
  • 338: Windsor 8:30, 6f Maiden (5)
  • 339: Wolverhampton AW 7:20, 6f Auction (5)

  •   July 14th Summary : 
     
    • Two maidens at Windsor on Monday evening and, as is often the case, the 6f event has more quality and depth than that over 5f despite the shorter event being a Class 4. The 5f maiden has attracted 11 runners and those that have already run do not look a strong group. Unless Kayceebee, and just possibly Black Salix, has more improvement than looked likely on his debut here the best of them look to be Court Approval & Red Rossini. 
    • The first of those has run in two higher class races but apart from when being to allowed to lead at a sedate pace at Ascot has never been competitive. At Royal Ascot the started at 100/1 and finished behind the midfield in a large field with all manner of types around him. Just behind him was Dabbers Chief who went on to place in a 6f Listed race. That runner has a peculiar attitude which includes a lot of immaturity and inability to concentrate on being a racehorse. When he concentrates, which he did for part of the Listed race he goes well but other times nothing happens. In front of Court Approval included runners dropped to sellers and beaten in nurseries subsequently. In short, he hasn't shown the form to win an open maiden and one to oppose with the right material. Red Rossini fits into the same category with a volunteer second in the gap between the solid enough Klynch and some very limited athletes on debut and then never competitive in an ordinary 5f Sandown race at 10/1.
    • So, a race to look through the newcomers to see what can reach and perhaps better the below average standard that will be needed to win. The pair that have enough of the right credentials are Art Correspondent & the filly Zelos Girl. The first is trained by Gary Moore who used not to take much interest in 2yo racing and had built up a strong, dual-purpose, stable over the years. FTO wins were very rare and the quality not that high. In 2006 he had just 3 juveniles run for him and no winner. In 2007 things looked to be changing with the number of runners up and, more notably, some expensive purchases. The four winners he had were the first four runners of the year and all were bought at the breeze-up sales and three owned by the art dealing Green family.
    • A similar story in 2008 with 4 runners to date and two bought at the breeze-up sales (one debut winner and one placer on later runs). His last two runners have won on debut although the second of those only had to beat Like For Like which is a mission entirely possible. Art Correspondent (we won't need any research to guess who owns him..) was bought at the breeze-up sales for 55,000 guineas and has a pedigree which doesn't shout '5f' which is a bit of a niggle. But the rest of the profile is sound and he should go well enough FTO.
    • A more interesting contender at an each-way price is likely to be Zelos Girl trained by Rae Guest. In the last 4 seasons Mr Guest has had a total of 6 juvenile winners and two have won on debut (the useful fillies Guilia at 50/1 & Rosa Grace at 16/1). In 2006 his two winners were his first two runners of the year and both made third (14/1 & 50/1) on debut prior to later wins. In 2004 his two winners were his second and fourth runners of the year and finished 4th (66/1) and 5th (25/1) in slightly tougher races than this is on profile. Which means that Zelos Girl is either running because she's a competitive 2yo or because she's no good and wont be a winner. 
    • She has a mixed pedigree but the trainer has said in interview that she seems to have inherited the speed for 5f from the sire and would have run by May but for a hold-up in training with a cough. So she sounds like a usable one and given the full preparation the trainer tends to give his horses she clearly has a good profile to at least place in this group.
    • In summary, the two with 'form' don't look strong and Red Rossini isn't a taking type physically although he's likely to be favourite. Court Approval is small as well although more strongly built but the trainer is less sure than the Hannon's at converting this type to a winner. A set-up for the on-course guy to be really important in the choice with feedback on the newcomers, especially Art Correspondent & Zelos Girl and probably worth a bit each-way on the latter anyway.
    • Last week the runners went to the far rail on the easy ground and with 'Good to Soft' in the frame at present that is still a possibility. On firmer going a high draw and the stands' rail a big advantage but on easier ground with the field often spread out across the course the best horses tend to get to the front anyway (as they did in the 6f maiden here last week).
    • 16 runners in the 6f Maiden and Richard Hannon presumably tried very hard to get the race divided into two parts because he has four in the race, a quarter of the group. The 7 horses that have already run have not shown the form to win an open maiden like this so you are really looking for clues as to which might have the physical scope to step forward. Goldvil received a positive in paddock review on debut, just medium frame but strongly enough built and a fluent mover. He made a typically incompetent debut by trainer Meehan's standards and looks most likely to best of the septet. West Leake ran here a week ago and was the tallest in the field although more lightly made, a little narrow through the body and a bit underpowered behind. His sheer size means that he ought to be able to rate into the OR70s but he seems more likely to be here fore a 'development run' than a STO win attempt.
    • But, the race features a range of interesting debut runners and the likelihood is that one of them will be good enough to win. Retro is the best of the Hannon set on profile and has a middle draw. He looked a natural 2yo at the yearling sales and the report B2yoR got suggested that if this thing couldn't win at 2yo we might need to seek alternative employment. So, lots of positives although the trainer only gets debut wins with high class horses for the most part (especially if owned by the Queen, which this one is not) although this one probably just reaches that category.
    • We then have a set of newcomers all with usable 2yo pedigrees and costing solid amount at the sales with 
      • Olynard (solid profile and trainer Beckett a plus and Sanders on board), 
      • Lochan Mor (Spencer her is probably a real positive on his likely ability), 
      • Nasri (missed last week's race here and runs for important owners but would need to be Group level to win off a Meehan prep), 
      • Tagula Night (trainer gets regular debut wins each year as his father-in-law did when he had the licence & this one looked another usable 2yo at the sales although less taking than Retro
      • along with Come On Toby (expensive for his sire and pedigree and trainer gets odd FTO wins although not in form at present), & Rocoppelia (cost $150k and a good sprint 2yo pedigree although trainer gets rare FTO wins and usually earlier in the year with the precocious types in the yard.)
    • In summary, a difficult race to put your finger on t he winner with the doubts about the going & draw allied to a strong cast of wannabes. Another race where info from the paddock will be invaluable to filter the contenders on the day from the ones to follow and the future opposables.
    • At Wolverhampton the top two on profile appear to be in a different class to the rest of the field. Both have been talked up as better class 2yos by their trainers. Blown It was seen as being the best of Jamie Osborne's early 2yos and better than Mount Pleasant & Cee Bargara from the 2007 team. The stable has been behind schedule this year and the 2yos not competing strongly when they have been seen at all. Blown It finally got to the track late but ran well to keep on into second at Salisbury. There was a 50/2 third in that race and subsequent events have shown that he bloody well needed to finish second because the rest of the field were mostly pretty limited. That run when a little underdone convinced the trainer to at least try him at Royal Ascot and he ran in midfield getting a B2yoR estimate of 46 which might be a little high but is still well clear of what most of the others will ever be capable of. If he's fit and in form he should be able to win this unless Defector is as good as William Muir says.
    • The trainer is supposed to have said that Defector reminds him of Averti in quality terms who was probably the best 2yo he has trained. At times a remark can be blown up to mean more than the trainer meant or the nuances get lost which hedged the comment. Andrew Balding made the same point last week that an owner had said to him that they had heard that Swindler was the best 2yo he had trained. He hadn't actually said that although he confirmed that he held that horse in high regard. Either way, Mr Muir isn't a Mark Prescott when it comes to knowing how good your horses are from their home work and he can get too misty eyed at times. Not quite in the George Margarson class but a long way from the Prescott 'School of Realism'.
    • He made a solid debut at Windsor but with the moderate runners too close behind to suggest it was a high class run. The VP picture shows a well prepared horse for that debut but he isn't that neatly put together (not in proportion front  to back for example, head & neck a bit too large, etc). He ought to be able to push Blown It but it would be a surprise if he could beat that runner if he runs to the form he has shown and, hopefully, a bit better.
    • A couple of other points of interest in the race. Reg Hollinshead runs Weet In Nerja on debut and his runners often show their best form FTO & STO. So far this year his three debuts have 3rd, 2nd & 4th FTO at longer odds with the first two beaten less than a length and one touched off in a photo at 20/1. In a race where something has to make the frame at longer odds Weet In Nerja is an obvious candidate. Abhainn is another possibility if he has finally settled down. Bryn Palling is another ready-for-debut trainer that gets a lot of fizzy attitude types as part of the deal. Along with being by Hawk Wing Abhainn has looked like his brain is being fried on both runs to date and has pressed the pace and faded. That was after he had unseated the jockey at periodic intervals among the mayhem. Along with Mr Cowell's Spanish Baron he is the other possible for a longer price runner to make the frame.

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Olynard  (Windsor 8:30, RM Beckett, All Debuts)
    • Chief Red Cloud  (Ayr, KR Burke, 5-6f Debuts). Trainer has not had the pre Royal Ascot debut winners this year .However, he has had two strong debuts this month with Captain Ellis (9/2) a good second to the experienced Pure Poetry at Haydock and Frontline Girl (20/1) a close second at York two days ago. 
    • 12 of his 24 debuts to date have made the first 4 places with 7 placed 2nd or 3rd. It is interesting to consider the SPs of those 24 debuts. Only 7 have started in single figures (less than 10/1) with 5 making the first 4 and one exception being Johnmanderville who made an early debut but has proved up to winning with development. The other exception was Chicken Momo who ran in a race full of garbage at Catterick where having four legs would have made you 4/1 if you came from a stable with a solid record. While there are hints that the 'Market' knows a bit about which are the good ones the longer priced places FTO for Lord Shanakill (his best 2yo on the evidence to date and 20/1 against winners FTO) & Frontline Girl show it isn't all knowing. His five individual winners to date have started at 11/2, 7/1, 20/1, 22/1 & 33/1 on their debuts to make the point further that teasing out the competitive ones from the FTO SP isn't a simple affair.
    • Chief Red Cloud is an expensive US purchase by a good US sire running for the Market Avenue syndicates (names all their horses with Marc Bolan/T. Rex references appparently) whom the trainer has had success for over the years.

    ~ AYR 2:40 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 CHIEF RED CLOUD [37] - 1 35
    5 SURUOR [35] - 3 34 2 17 38
    3 MISTER FANTASTIC [34] - 2 29 1 29 29
    4 POSTMAN [28] - 1 35
    8 BELLA'S STORY [21] +5 3 16 2 14 4
    6 WHAT A FELLA [20] - 3 20 1 20 25
    7 ASSERTING [4] +5 1
    2 LIBERTY TRAIL [0] - 2 -118 1 -118

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    ~ WDSR 6:30 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 ART CORRESPONDENT [36] - 1 38
    2 COURT APPROVAL [36] - 3 31 1 31 41
    4 RED ROSSINI [35] - 3 35 2 26 35
    11 ZELOS GIRL [35] +5 1 20
    7 BRER RABBIT [24] +5 2 14 1 14 37
    3 KAYCEEBEE [18] - 2 6 1 6 34
    9 MY DIXIE DARLING [17] +5 1 35
    5 SERICUS [15] - 3 12 2 -2 25
    6 BLACK SALIX [14] +5 3 4 1 4 21
    8 EMERALD LASS [9] +5 2 -9 1 -9 32
    10 SILVER SALSA [8] +5 2 -16 1 -16 30

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    ~ WDSR 8:30 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    8 RETRO [42] - 1 35
    7 OLYNARD [40] - 1 34
    5 LOCHAN MOR [39] - 1 32
    6 NASRI [38] - 1 35
    3 GOLDVIL [36] - 2 16 1 16 35
    11 TAGULA NIGHT [34] - 1 40
    9 ROCOPPELIA [32] - 1 32
    2 COME ON TOBY [30] - 1 32
    14 WEST LEAKE [25] - 2 -16 1 -16 37
    13 TIDAL FORCE [24] - 1 36
    1 CANADIAN ROCKIE [20] - 2 3 1 3 17
    4 HAWKSPUR [18] - 2 -21 1 -21 35
    12 TARTAN TURBAN [17] - 2 -5 1 -5 35
    15 DANCING WAVE [15] +5 4 17 3 -2 10
    16 LYONESSE [14] +5 1 35
    10 SILVER SCEPTRE [5] - 2 1 1 1 13

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    ~ WTON 7:20 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 BLOWN IT [46] - 3 46 2 41 31
    3 DEFECTOR [39] +2 2 29 1 29 30
    6 WEET IN NERJA [26] +4 1 37
    9 IGNEOUS [25] +6 2 14 1 14 35
    5 SPANISH BARON [24] +2 1 47
    2 ABHAINN [21] +2 3 16 1 16 36
    11 PREMIER DEMON [21] +7 3 -40 2 -44 30
    10 BOUNTY REEF [20] +7 2 15 1 15 30
    7 DIDDUMS [20] +6 1 40
    12 SENORITA MIRASOL [20] +9 1 35
    8 FANTASTIC FRED [15] +6 1 31
    4 HANDCUFF [13] +2 2 -23 1 -23 31
    13 HAAFHDS DELIGHT [10] +11 1 15

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