British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - July 22nd 
Races :-
  • 378: Great Leighs AW 7:50, 5f Auction (5)
  • 379: Salisbury 3:20, 6f Maiden (4)
  • 380: Yarmouth 2:15, 5.2f Maiden (5)

  •   July 22nd Summary : 
    • Moderate stuff at Great Leighs with Evelyn May an OR70ish type and vulnerable in open maidens (see her picture in the VP). But, this is an auction and she receives weight from everything else except Kitty Allen who is a slight lesser physical type anyway, and has shown a little less on the track. The sort of set-up where you would instinctively look for something with a better profile. But, aided by a suspect or little understood range of trainers, none of the others stand out. Handcuff was an early debut runner for Jamie Osborne and was probably a limited member of his early team. His 2yos haven't run well this year and Handcuff was an early indicator with a bad run at Southwell. A long break and probably with limited development potential anyway he doesn't appeal.
    • Nick Littmoden is a trainer to avoid with 2yos and Jubilee Juggins achieved little FTO and you can't trust the development. Michael Wigham seems one of those trainers, Barney Curley would be the Über example, who takes more pleasure in being clever about training winners than the winners themselves. So, if there's a lot of market support for Elsie Jo you might take some interest but there's nothing else in the profile to recommend her. New trainer G. Baker started his training career with 2yos by winning a seller with a wound up filly and the three debuts since have been poor. So a positive for picking out the usable one from his string but was it really necessary to use the seller route to win with her? Anyway, Rebelwithoutacause hasn't shown anything in two goes and 3TO isn't the time to start if you are looking for a handicap mark.
    • Which means that having turned left and right, been through the double doors, down the stairs at the back you have two choices. Going through the door back out onto Evelyn May 'Street' or thinking John Best might train a debut winner with Dakota Hills. Not a tempting prospect because Mr Best doesn't seem to know when they are going to win and that leaves the rest of us guessing as well ("I'm in you head!", "I'm in your head...", Yes, John). 
    • And so to Salisbury and, oh dear, more pondering about the unstable edifice that is the Best Stable career development policy. If Square Eddie were trained by, nice Vanilla, Mr Hannon he would already have won at least one race and had a go in something a bit more taxing. He cost a lot of money by the stable standards ($200,000) and because they are always looking to sell for a profit this often leads to runs in high class races to boost the perceived value for potential buyers. So, he started off in a Windsor conditions race (like Bertie Southstreet did in 2005) and ran well in what looks a better race in retrospect. The winner has competed well, when she is in the mood, since and the second nearly won a sub-standard July Stakes having given Classic Blade and easy lead and a head start. The other runner has come back from running badly to win a nursery off topweight.
    • So, pick off a maiden and then Royal Ascot? No, lets just run at the Royal Meeting. A midfield run in the Coventry Stakes which B2yoR rated 44 but readers should have learned that following Ascot form can lead to supporting a lot of over-rated losers NTO. This is because the Royal Ascot races often get over-rated even if you are trying to avoid it because the Group/Listed race labels cloud the thinking even when you know it's happening. He finished just behind Blown It who has converted his promise into a win (with a rliable trainer) and just in front of Shampagne who has run poorly in two outings since.
    • So, do you trust Mr Best to get rid of the maiden tag here? Too much watching his highly tried horses struggle to do it and variable performances from one run to the next leaves you wanting to support something else or leave it alone. On the plus side Square Eddie is a strongly built type but short in height and probably vulnerable to a rangier mover. Mr Hannon's Retro didn't look to have developed that well from the sales when he made his debut at Windsor last week and ran just a so-so debut but with a Hughes 'try out' ride rather than the full thing. If he's an each-way price you can trust the trainer that he will improve to show his full potential here and it's then a question of whether that's good enough to better wherever Square Eddie might land in his performance range.
    • The each-way alternatives perhaps rest with the Evans newcomer Scarlets (covered below) and Meehan's expensively purchased US breeze up type Galpin Junior. He ought to compete well in this group despite the relatively unstressed preparation the trainer goes in for.
    • At Yarmouth the Godolphin runner Global City ought to win comfortably. He ran better than the result makes it look on debut after getting involved in a war for the lead that left Carnaby Haggerston befuddled and out of the race (with a stronger ride that one came back to show that form wrong with a Nursery win over the weekend). He should improve a lot for that and would be value to beat a much tougher group than that he faces. He isn't going to be much of a price but he's a 'Good Favourite'.

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Scarlets  (Salisbury, PD Evans, Long Shot). The point was made yesterday of the unbalanced nature of the debuts by the trainer. The earliest debuts contain most of the competitive 2yos and the high level of fitness and racecraft preparation means the best of them can win and often lead, even FTO. He has had 8 individual runners who have won for him after making the debut under his preparation. They include six of the first 8 to start out by April 14th. The exceptions have been dual winner White Shift who won her April 30th debut and seller winner Cherry Belle who is the only winner to come from his last 12 juveniles to begin their careers after April 30th.
    • In the last 5 seasons just a single winner in the turf season has made their debut later than the end of June. Which means all the stats say Scarlets either has a 'story' to explain a late debut or she's duff. But, she's owned by Kevin Mercer who is behind Usk Valley Stud in Wales (the green & blue colours, 'Gower' prefixed horses and so on). This seems like the first 2yo he has had with Mr Evans and she was retained for a solid price at the sales by the stable's standards. This would make her a relatively important project for the stable and the Usk horses aren't early starters with the usual range of trainers.
    • The dam was a small, minor winner but well related and the sire can get useful sprint 2yos. If she is any good then the preparation will mean it will show on debut so you can't dismiss her before Paddock Review as you would with most (pretty much all) of his later kick-off 2yos.

    ~ GLGH 7:50 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    6 EVELYN MAY [36] - 3 34 2 30 37
    7 KITTY ALLEN [24] +5 4 17 3 9 35
    2 DAKOTA HILLS [19] -9 1 31
    3 HANDCUFF [16] -9 3 -23 1 -23 31
    4 JUBILEE JUGGINS [7] -9 2 3 1 3 22
    5 ELSIE JO [4] -2 2 -8 1 -8
    1 REBELWITHOUTACAUSE [0] -11 3 -3 2 -50

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    ~ SALS 3:20 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    12 SQUARE EDDIE [41] - 3 44 2 35 31
    10 RETRO [37] - 2 19 1 19 35
    4 GALPIN JUNIOR [33] - 1 35
    15 SCARLETS [31] +5 1 30
    2 AULD ARTY [27] - 3 30 1 30 41
    6 JEREMIAH [25] - 3 25 2 14 22
    11 SHORT CUT [20] - 2 -65 1 -65 31
    5 HELLBENDER [19] - 2 -8 1 -8 31
    13 TASMAN GOLD [18] - 2 6 1 6 34
    7 LOUIE'S LAD [16] - 2 10 1 10
    14 LUVMEDO [14] +5 2 -20 1 -20 35
    8 PAPA MEILLAND [14] - 1 20
    16 SISTER CLEMENT [12] +5 2 -36 1 -36 28
    1 ARROGANCE [11] - 1 38
    9 RED ROBERT [8] - 2 -70 1 -70 36
    3 DARK DESERT [0] - 1 17

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    ~ YARM 2:15 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 GLOBAL CITY [48] - 2 34 1 34 49
    2 JOE CASTER [26] - 2 29 1 29 34
    3 GREEN POPPY [24] +5 3 21 1 21 20
    4 USUAL SUSPECTS [9] +5 3 6 1 6 26

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