Call Me Naan (Nottingham, KR Burke, 5-6f Debuts)
Sehoy (Sandown, JHM Gosden, June to August Debuts)
There are some other interesting points with FTO runners during the day.
Professional punter (and talker) Harry Findlay began owning 2yos with a
few low grade ones in 2007 with (think back to the eternal placer Shatter
Resistent). They have run under his mother's name as owner (M Findlay)
in purple colours with grey hoops on the sleeves.
The four that have run so far this season have been - Kerrys Requiem
(4th of 10 at 7/2 on debut), Cerito (1st at 2/1 and supported. Noticeable
fitter than the normal Mick Channon debut runner), Sanvean
(3rd of 9 at 9/1 in what looks a tough maiden in retrospect. The winner
went on to win a moderate 7f Fillies' Listed race, the second won the fillies'
Group 3 at Ascot last weekend and the fourth confirmed her ability to produce
last furlong staying performances with a solid win in a Chepstow auction
last week. Sanvean herself ran against colts in a Group 2 at the Newmarket
July Meeting and looks to have a good chance in the Goodwood fillies' maiden
today) & Triple Aspect (Willie Haggas trained rather than his
best mate Channon, 1st at 12/1).
Mr Channon has always shown evidence in his methods of 'important' owners
in the stable getting the better end of the cheap buys and noticeably stronger
debuts (strongly linked to more able 2yos). Mr Haggas doesn't get that
many debut winners so signs that Mr Findlay likes strong FTO runs anyway.
The next runner for Mrs Findlay starts out today with Pursuit Of Purpose
at Goodwood in the same race as Sanvean. She runs for Gary Moore with his
son Ryan riding. Mr Moore didn't used to get debut winners but had his
first since 1999 for important owners last year and has had two already
in 2008. How is this one going to go?
Saeed Bin Suroor with the Godolphin 2yos has around a 25% FTO strike rate
with debut runners in 4 of the last 5 seasons and 16% in the other 'worst'
year. That headline figure hides changes in the way the stable has handled
the 2yos in recent seasons. In that five year period the number of runners
in the season has declined from 91 in 2004 to 28 last year which was still
well up from the 18 that ran in 2006. In the last two seasons although
the FTO strike rate has bettered 25% they have come in September &
October and a 0-8 record with pre-September kick-offs. Backing all the
post August debuts in the last two years would have produced a small profit
which is a little surprising given that the Godolphin horses tend to be
overbet because of the 'paper credentials' of the 2yos.
This year they have already run 8 x 2yos so the numbers are up but none
have won FTO which suggests that they are following the same pattern. The
early runners are the natural 2yos and those of lesser ability and they
are not as tightly wound for debut as previously. The later debuts are
likely to include the better horses and they will be readier to win on
debut because they will have been in training longer. Gamila was
a breeze-up purchase so hasn't been through their entire training program.
She starts in a low level Nottingham fillies' race which seems to rest
between the four newcomers to find the winner.