-
A 5f Auction race at Carlisle with southern trained Zelos Girl
likely to be favourite. Before her debut at Windsor the preview noted her
trainer's record of picking the most competitive 2yo he has to begin as
one of his first two runners and to have it fit and ready for debut. Zelos
Girl played the part well as his first runner of the year and finishing
3rd at 16/1 and keeping on well at the finish. His two debuts since have
finished in 10th place at 50/1 and 25/1 to make the point that all debuts
are not the same and the order they happen in often matters (think of David
Evans, Bill Turner & Mark Prescott for other variations on the front
loading of competitive 2yos theme).
-
Now, in paddock review she was disappointing and was small and narrow and
didn't really convince as an OR70+ rater. On the plus side she has some
length, is an athletic mover to use that length and showed a good attitude
for racing by sticking on against colts later in the race. She got a B2yoR
estimate of 32 and she probably has little scope to improve that. Even
that level looks a little suspect given the moderate run by Court Approval
since. He is another of those horses who is deflating during the season
and looked worse, and smaller, last time out than he did against better
opposition at Ascot FTO.
-
The time of the race was quick in raw terms and on officially good ground.
The only faster 5f races this year have been Beat Seven (Listed placed
on her latest run) & Kerrys Requiem (fillies' Conditions event) and
both those carried much less weight than the colt winner and less than
Zelos Girl in third. The only faster race in 2007 was when Imperial Mint
(later Conditions race victor) beat 7 later winners in a good maiden. The
rating has to take some of that time into account but it would appear the
time is misleading to some extent. Windsor often water but still get fast
times and the water seems to sit in the top 1-2 inches of the ground with
a hard base of compacted soil below. The course then 'walks' as good to
a man with a stick but horses go straight through the skin of wetter soil,
run on the hard base underneath and kick up sliver divots (visible on VT)
and hence the fast times. This is one of the ways Paddock Review can help
put a race into perspective. If the placed horses look like OR70s raters
of some sort then that sets the form level and tells you to go looking
for some other explanation for the time than a lot of superior horses.
-
A big part of getting wins for a trainer is putting horses in the right
races. Sending Zelos Girl up to run in a Carlisle Auction race rather than
running in a tougher sport in the south suggests trainer Guest knows she
isn't going to beat a solid field and needs some help as the Paddock Notes
said. He's done a good job because he's found what looks like a weak version
of the race. The Racing Post handicapper has rated 6 of the last 8 winners
of this race below OR70 and the two exceptions were colts from major Northern
yards who already had good placed form. The opposition doesn't include
anything like that and a late OR60s run by Zelos Girl (which she ought
to be capable of) and receiving bits of weight means she sets a good standard
for this group.
-
The 'Nigglers' viewpoint would be that because of her size and lack of
scope to develop from the debut run (which might be a little over-rated)
means she's vulnerable to anything bigger. Fitzolini only has to
give her 2lbs (rather than the weight-for-sex norm of 5lbs) because he
cost a piffling 1,500gns as a yearling. He's shown hints of form, only
when he has met softer going, which means he could finish closish to her
but doesn't appeal unless it's get heavy. The other filly in the race cost
the same low amount and finished well back from a poor draw at Chester
on debut. John Quinn's runners show their best STO but she starts from
a low base to believe she can challenge Zelos Girl. Lucky Number
was ahead of her in that Chester race but a long way back from the solid
horses who were first and second (who have won off OR77 and placed off
OR74) to put the form into context and meant he ran in the OR50s and a
bit short of what Zelos Girl should be able to do.
-
Whish means she should be able to handle those with form and the possible
upset coming from one of the Alan Swinbank pair of newcomers. Until 2007
he didn't get debut winners then he got 4 in 2007 at a 17% strike rate.
Two of those were in later season in weak races inclduing a seller. The
two in early season were by OR75+ horses in races on softer ground that
feel apart. So, a hint that he might have his runners more primed for debut
although not convincing and possibly just a fluke year. 10 debuts to date
in 2008 have produced 2 third places (8/1 and 14/1) and one by his only
winner of the year so far.
-
In summary, Zelos Girl would be one to oppose in a tougher group
but the trainer looks to have found the right race for her. Unless it comes
up very soft and Fitzolini shows a little more the possible surprise seems
to be from the best of the Swinbank newcomers but evidence so far suggests
he still does educational FTOs. Zelos Girl ought to win but if TV pictures
(or the paddock report) shows one of the newcomers a bigger type then be
prepared with the 'Lay' button if it's looming up the hill to the final
furlong. If that type id absent her tenacity could see her win well.
-
At Ripon the Novice race presents a typically tricky choice. Three
previous winners take on a newcomer from the Bryan Smart yard who receives
enough weight to make her a nuisance if she's any good. Summer Fete
is a Maktoum owner bred running for one of Sheikh Mohammed's sons.
She is out of a 8f 2yo mare who didn't manage to win in two goes at 7f
at 2yo. The sire Pivotal gets all types including sprinters but has an
in-and-out record with 2yos which is part of the fact that his better types
often develop with time. This means later in the 2yo season and at 3yo+
and his son Needwood Blade (a classic example who was best at 4-5yo after
a seller level 2yo career) has made a slow start in his first season with
2yos. Mr Smart got his normal range of debut winners in May witht he selected
precocious 2yos with 3 of the first 6 runner winning FTO and just 1 of
the later 22 have won FTO. He hasn't had a Novice winner FTO in recent
years. Which means that Summer Fete is going to have to be unusually good
to beat the colts which seems pretty unlikely.
-
Kentish Dream's debut run at Newmarket was not strong form and he
didn't go like a good horse when winning at Lingfield. Even helped by sitting
on the Magic Carpet next to the rail on the turf course he had to work
to see off 50/1 chance Oil Man and a big old galloper like On Our Way who
looked a little gormless and flinching from the firm going. That looked
to confirm the Paddock Review that he was probably an upper OR70s horse
and not a real better type. He steps back to 6f but doesn't really appeal
as a strong contender.
-
Aldermoor was a Stuart Williams' plot winner on debut to add to
supported wins for Exponential (2004) & Hogmaneigh (2005). He didn't
have a 2yo winner last year, nor in 2002-3, which means that 3 of his last
six wins with juveniles have been supported plans of some sort with only
the three wins (by separate horses) in 2006 a more typical set-up. His
2yo Ritzy Wildcat has also been supported on at least too runs this season
and has shown a lot of natural pace but has run too freely to put a full
race together.
-
Aldermoor won comfortably from an ordinary set with the willowy Starry
Sky in second having dropped back to a fast 6f from 7f. He's difficult
to place and the trainer hasn't had a multiple 2yo winner since 2001 although
this one looked notably straightforward FTO. WHich means that the choice
is probably between him and Cerito who was a clear winner on debut
for the Channon/Findlay combination. Those he beat have included a couple
of later winners who were also on debut and were well below their best
and mixed in with the garbage. He did a solid time without looking terrific
and the Paddock Report suggested a small type who was very fit and ready
for the day and likely to struggle up in class.
-
That has looked to be the case with a midfield run at Royal Ascot in the
Group 2 Norfolk Stakes and then a poor run, with something ailing him,
in an ordinary Listed race. The ground was perhaps too firm for him there
given that the other horse that failed with him (Shampagne) ran on the
fibresand next time to win a nursery off OR96. Although he has limitations
in higher class he fits well in this group and receiving 3lbs from the
other two colts should go much better if the ground stays usable.
-
We can use Cerito and his 6 length win on debut to link to Sunday's
racing and the 7 length win of Marine Boy. So, Tom Dascombe
can train debut winners after all. Mind you, this was was a breeze up purchase,
notably fit and professional on the day and just so superior to the others
that pretty much any trainer should have been able to get a debut win with
it. Not getting a debut win would have been an indication of incompetence
rather than a liking for quiet intros.
-
As with earlier clear debut wins by Cerito & Orizaba the impression
of Marine Boy in paddock review wasn't of an obviously long-term high class
horse. A ready 2yo who might well compete to Group class at 2yo but now
would be when you would be seeing the best of them. Ceirto was small to
add to the niggle. Marine Boy, Like Orizaba, is of a taller, but narrow
bodied (i.e. lacking some power) type but very athletic with it (i.e. efficiency
making up for some lack of power but meaning there is still a gap between
him for the real top-class horses to fit who have both bulk and efficiency
- let's say Mastercraftsman). This - Picture
- shows some of this and notice the curve of muscle definition on his hindquarter
(buttock) and the upward line on his flank. He doesn't look that powerful
in front but note how deep the semi-circle of his buttock is to show how
much of the strength he does have is there to drive him from behind.
-
Another positive for the Dascombe's in that he was bought as a 2yo for
'just' £52,000 and his lack of bulk perhaps explaining why he didn't
cost more. [A postive also for the guy who does the Sales report for B2yoR
who had Marine Boy starred as one to 'Track' from his sale (retained by
the vendor for 21,000gns) as a yearling.
-
His 7 length win owes something to the lack of good opposition and the
OR70s type Glen Molly was much less ready for debut and finished a clear
second with none of the four Hannon runners looking good or ready (Hughes
rode Fanditha
for example who looked like a young, willowy, slightly Bits&Pieces
and for whom this would be a development run). Pearl Of Manacor
(Picture [1]
& [2])
isn't that different from Marine Boy in physical type and fitness if you
look at picture one. But, he was immature to the point of bersekery and
the second picture shows him after lifting both handlers off the floor
while waiting to get into the parade ring. You knew from his behaviour
he couldn't perform properly. Mr Channon followed him into the parade ring,
unsurprised by the antics, with a "Come on then, let's face the music"
quip and Harry (Findlay) followed, strangely silent.
-
The question is how will Marine Boy fare when he steps up to something
like the Gimcrack Stakes. Mr Dascombe has already demonstrated that winning
Group races at 2yo doesn't require anything more than a useful horse and
Marine Boy looked better than that. He must be better than Firth Of Fifth
for example. But, you can win Group races at 2yo and be an OR88 handicapper
in the long run as well - Godfrey Street, Prince Of Light, Hunter Street,
where is Philario going? and so on. The lack of build suggests that Marine
Boy fits somewhere between the extremes and isn't the high class type who
will rate B2yoR 100+ in the season but he showed such natural speed he
ought to be better than the Philario type Group 3 winner.
-
For interest here's a list of the other horses who have won Maidens this
season on thier debuts by more than 5 lengths :-
| Horse |
Date & Distance |
[Est] |
Later Runs |
| Deadly Encounter |
May 5th, 9 Lengths |
[52] |
2 runs to lesser ratings and the Richard Fahey set of early strong
debut runners have not fared well afterwards in general. |
| Cerito |
May 14th, 6 Lengths |
[50] |
See above. |
| Orizaba |
May 16th, 9 Lengths |
[70] |
Unplaced in Coventry Stakes and working moderately prior to that. Won
7f Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last week with a similar rating. |
| South Central |
June 2nd, 13 lengths |
[68] |
Won the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes |
| Free Agent |
June 2nd, 5 lengths |
[44] |
Won the Listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot |
| Zacinto |
July 4th, 8 Lengths |
[55] |
Only Run to date. |
| Prince Siegfried |
July 12th, 5 Lengths |
[45] |
Only Run to date. |
| Rainbow View |
July 18th, 6 Lengths |
[40] |
Only Run to date. |
| Parisian Art |
July 26th, 5 Lengths |
[40] |
Only Run to date. |
|
![[1]](../../08_Publish_Pics/PearlOfManacor_080803_nwby1.jpg){kind=link}
![[2]](../../08_Publish_Pics/PearlOfManacor_080803_nwby4.jpg){kind=link}