British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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 Racing Previews Results
Racing Preview - August 7th 
Races :-
  • 476: Bath 6:25, 5.7f Fillies' Auction (6)
  • 477: Bath 7:00, 5f Seller (6)
  • 478: Brighton 2:30, 5.3f Nursery (5)
  • 479: Brighton 3:00, 7f Auction (5)
  • 480: Folkestone 6:40, 7f Maiden (6)
  • 481: Folkestone 7:45, 6f Maiden (5)
  • 482: Haydock 2:10, 8.1f Auction (5)
  • 483: Haydock 2:40, 6f Fillies' Novice (4)
  • 484: Sandown 5:45, 5f Maiden Fillies' (4)
  • 485: Sandown 6:50, 8.1f Maiden (4)
  • 486: Yarmouth 2:20, 6f Maiden (5)
    		•
      August 7th Summary : 
     
    • The 8f races for juveniles start today with and Auction race at Haydock and a (new) maiden at Sandown. Getting a horse to win on debut over the full mile is more difficult than over shorter distances and debuts successes are mainly achieved by a small range of trainers. Over a complete season somewhere between 15-18% of races are won by FTO horses but the figures for 8f races are below the average - 13% in 2007 for example. In that season 26% of 5f races (assisted by the fact that early season races include higher percentages of debut runners) were won by newcomers and over 19% of 6f races.
    • Here are a few pointers about FTO horses in 8f events :-
      • The record varies a little but debuts wins in August are uncommon. Other than a odd record of 6 winners in 2005 during August the normal number is 1 or 2. There are often similar numbers of debut winners in September and October although 2007 was untypical with 12 of the 15 debut winners in October. The wet summer and better ground in later season was probably a factor in this.
      • A small set of trainers regularly get 8f debut winners. In the last three years the following have had at least one 8f FTO success in each year - Mark Johnston (4-2-1, to add to his good 7f debut record which is continuing in 2008), John Gosden (2-1-2) & R Beckett (1-1-2). These trainers have had a debut winner in at least two of three years - S Suroor (4-1-0), M Stoute (0-1-1), Michael Jarvis (0-2-1) & S. Kirk (0-1-1). The other trainers have odd debut winners and this usually links to the next point about quality of 8f winners. The oddities have been Richard Hannon (2 x 8f debut wins in 2006 and nothing else in recent years) & Bryan Meehan (2 x Debuts wins in 2008 and the first since 2003, but he does have a good debut win record in later season but normally over 7f). 
      • Debut winners over 8f seem to be generally higher class horses, as a group. The majority over the last 3 years have proved to be better than OR80 handicappers as older horses and a good number have been OR95+. 2007 was a notable year in this regard with just 15 horses winning over 8f on debut. They included - Twice Over, Look Here, Michita, Tajaaweed, General Eliot, Makaaseb, Spell Caster who have made their mark at 3yo to varying degrees and Comeback Queen (Listed winner) & Hilbre Court (dual winner) who made their mark further at 2yo. The others were Mukhber, Bright Falcon, Comeback Queen, Cruel Sea, Captain Webb & Wintercast. Although this was a notably good year the standard of 8f debut winners in the long term is well above average.
      • The trainers with odd wins at 8f have tended to be with higher class horses who could win on natural ability.
      • The two tracks where 8f debut winners are most numerous are Newmarket (by sheer quantity of later season races, divided maidens etc.) and, more interestingly Nottingham. That course has produced 4 debut winners (spread over September & October) in each of the last 3 seasons (i.e. 4 of 15 in 2007 for example). Two possible factors in this are the type of fields the course attracts and the long straight which tends to spread fields out by ability quite well (and give the odd clueless one time to grasp the plot). Being seen as a flat, and fair, track, it attracts runners from the bigger southern yards who are useful, if not higher class, and they can see off the local & nothern slow boats. Michael Stoute's two debut wins at the distance in the last two year's have been at Nottingham.
    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Wake Me Now  (Bath 6:25, RM Beckett, All Debuts)
    • Cwmni  (Bath 7:00, B Palling, Long Shot)
    • Cut The Cackle  (Sandown 5:45, P Winkworth, Long Shot).
    ~ BATH 6:25 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    4 WAKE ME NOW [25] - 1 34
    3 RIOLIINA [23] - 2 28 1 28 22
    6 BOLD RING [22] +2 2 14 1 14
    1 VIA MIA [18] -4 1 36
    7 ERRIS LADY [15] +2 1 31
    2 PHOENIX ENFORCER [12] - 1
    5 YANZA [9] - 1
    8 SPINNING BAILIWICK [2] +4 1

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    ~ BATH 7:00 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    8 LIKE FOR LIKE [16] - 7 35 1 35 35
    5 CWMNI [12] - 1 36
    4 AUGUST DAYS [11] - 5 4 3 -11 34
    7 INTREPID LADY [5] - 3 -19 2 -23 34
    3 TYLER [3] -5 6 3 3 -73 15
    1 JIMWASRIGHT [2] -5 2 -17 1 -17 30
    6 FRAME AND COVER [1] - 5 3 3 -30 27
    2 MAKALUNA [1] -5 8 13 4 -13 10

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    ~ BTON 2:30 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    8 RED CELL [42] - 6 36 2 26 32
    11 MEAN MR MUSTARD [41] +3 6 16 3 8 31
    1 POCKET'S PICK [41] -20 6 44 3 -40 38
    3 KATE THE GREAT [40] -14 6 34 5 33 29
    5 VERLEGEN [39] -9 5 32 1 32 35
    10 SATWA BOY [38] +1 4 19 1 19 32
    7 HANDCUFF [37] - 4 20 3 -23 31
    4 SKRUTON [36] -12 5 30 2 -13 22
    6 SONHADOR [35] -9 5 28 1 28 29
    2 THE MAGIC OF RIO [34] -16 7 28 5 19 40
    9 SUB PRIME [33] - 6 31 1 31 31

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    ~ BTON 3:00 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    3 CAVENDISH ROAD [33] - 4 32 2 24 30
    6 HAMEILDAEME [32] +7 4 24 3 7 12
    1 MANERO [32] -3 2 10 1 10 31
    5 BAD BARON [26] +2 2 21 1 21 20
    2 SPIT AND POLISH [18] -1 2 8 1 8 36
    4 PERSIAN TOMCAT [12] - 3 1 1 1 24
    7 LYONESSE [6] +7 2 -1 1 -1 35

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    ~ FOLK 6:40 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    5 OIL MAN [29] - 3 29 2 5 29
    4 HERRING SENIOR [27] - 5 31 3 -7 36
    2 DONCOSAQUE [23] - 1 47
    3 GOOD BUY DUBAI [22] - 3 12 1 12 31
    1 DOME ROCKET [20] - 1 40
    11 PREMIER SUPERSTAR [20] +5 2 10 1 10 28
    8 BRIGHT ENOUGH [14] +5 3 11 2 9 32
    7 SPINNING WATERS [14] - 1 20
    6 PRIMO DILETTANTE [8] - 1 40
    9 CHARISMATIC LADY [7] +5 2 2 1 2 36
    10 ITSHER [3] +5 2 -7 1 -7 12

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    ~ FOLK 7:45 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    3 GALPIN JUNIOR [36] - 2 23 1 23 35
    9 SECRET SOCIETY [33] - 2 -10 1 -10 32
    8 ROCOPPELIA [26] - 3 24 1 24 32
    2 FIVE STAR JUNIOR [24] - 2 10 1 10
    1 DANNIOS [23] - 1 32
    7 REEL ALE [18] - 3 18 2 -10 29
    6 REBEL CITY [17] - 1
    5 ORANGELEG [12] - 2 -50 1 -50 12
    10 NALA [10] - 1 31
    4 ITAINTEASYBEINGME [3] - 2 -62 1 -62 28

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    ~ HYDK 2:10 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    4 SPLINTER CELL [36] - 2 27 1 27 35
    3 RUSSIAN GEORGE [32] - 3 27 2 26 18
    2 FLASHGUN [31] -2 1 22
    14 SHADY LADY [30] +5 1 38
    6 VIKING AWAKE [27] - 2 20 1 20
    11 VICTORIAN TYCOON [22] +2 3 13 2 -10 32
    1 UNION ISLAND [19] -5 1 33
    8 HUXAAR [13] +2 2 -31 1 -31 18
    7 HERAWATI [11] +2 1 18
    10 TOMBOV [10] +2 1 24
    12 WHAT A DAY [9] +2 1 29
    5 UBI ACE [7] - 1
    13 HIGH SOCIETY GIRL [4] +5 2 -25 1 -25 18
    9 NOBLE ARTIST [3] +2 2 -150 1 -150

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    ~ HYDK 2:40 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    3 CARANBOLA [48] - 7 49 5 26 23
    2 SNEAK PREVIEW [48] -3 3 42 2 24 36
    1 MADAME TROP VITE [44] -3 4 44 2 33 33
    4 FIRST CITY [40] - 2 24 1 24 36
    5 RAFIQA [38] - 2 34 1 34 17

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    ~ SDWN 5:45 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    6 HAPPY FOREVER [36] - 2 19 1 19 35
    7 PEPER HAROW [35] - 4 45 2 22 22
    8 POYLE MEG [33] - 2 28 1 28 34
    4 FORTUNE IN FAITH [30] - 1 36
    5 GREEN POPPY [26] - 4 21 1 21 20
    1 BARNEZET [25] - 4 23 2 7 35
    2 CUT THE CACKLE [17] - 1 29
    3 FLORENTIA [14] - 1 25
    9 SMOKEY RYDER [14] - 1 38

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    ~ SDWN 6:50 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    8 ON OUR WAY [38] - 2 27 1 27 47
    5 HAMBLEDON HILL [35] - 2 21 1 21 35
    9 ATABAAS ALLURE [34] +5 2 20 1 20 38
    4 DREAMWALK [29] - 3 31 2 31 34
    1 ARUSHORE [28] - 3 16 2 -7 35
    2 BLUE DYNASTY [20] - 1 32
    7 KHAN TENGRI [16] - 2 -1 1 -1 33
    6 HARLESTONE SNAKE [9] - 1 36
    3 CORREDOR SUN [6] - 2 1 1 1

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    ~ YARM 2:20 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 AAKEF [41] - 3 33 1 33 42
    4 HAJOUM [38] - 2 31 1 31 49
    5 LEAHURST [34] - 1 37
    3 EAGLES CALL [30] - 2 21 1 21 44
    9 WELCOME APPLAUSE [26] +5 3 21 1 21 22
    8 NIZHONI DANCER [25] +5 1 17
    2 BURMA ROCK [22] - 1 32
    6 BOUNTY BOX [16] +5 1 17
    7 INTIKAMA [11] +5 1 28

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