Albertine Rose (Windsor, WR Muir, 5-6f Debuts). Trainer's profits
over the last three years have depended upon a single, longer priced, winner
at the distance range. These have been in July, August (in a similar 6f
fillies' maiden at Windsor) & October. He has his debut runners competent
enough to run well FTO with the right mix of horse ability and race strength.
The market used to have no idea which are the better ones and because it
doesn't do much by way of judging the field on the day in physical terms
the longer priced winners occur. In 2005-7 the stable had 48 debuts of
which just one started at less than 12/1 and just 4 below 16/1.
The exception was 8/1 and unplaced on both juvenile runs.
With that background this season has been unusual with 4 of the 8 debuts
to date being at less than 10/1. Three of the last four debuts have been
between 9/2 & 8/1 and have finished 2nd along with two fourths. All
three have failed to win STO to confirm the view of a trainer who struggles
to get wins with 2yos in a predictable manner. But, a slightly worrying
development if you want a 33/1 winner from him in that some information
seems to be leaking marketwards now.
The Windsor race has enough to keep Albertine Rose well into double figures.
Amongst the runners is the Godolphin newcomer Moonlife who cost
120,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Craven breeze-up sale in April. The
last time a preview noted that Saeed bin Suroor seems to have his 2yos
less ready for debut these days he had his only FTO success this year with
Gamila (supported) in a weak race at Nottingham.
In this current batch of debuts he had three newcomers run two days ago
of whom two were was a volunteer thirds well behind the first two and the
other was unplaced. They included a even more expensive breeze-up purchase
from the same sale. On balance, the debuts still seem to be less ready
than in previous seasons. Dettori is at Yarmouth and rides newcomer
Dream Of Mine while Ted Durcan rides Moonlife.
The windsor race has four fillies in that have shown moderate form and
would set just an average standard for a solid newcomer. D'Nurse
was well adrift in third when behind Marine Boy at Newbury and clearly
bring him, or even the second Molly Glen (won a moderate Newbury race over
the weekend), is misleading. Solitary has never looked 'the part'
and her form regressed STO when she looked in poor condition. Tropical
Paradise hasn't shown much ability in two early runs and returns from
a break and it will be interesting to see how she has strengthened up.
Peninsular Girl is a small filly for the 150,000gns she cost but
has shown the best form and makes most appeal of those fillies.
William Haggas runs two on debut with Dream Date the apparent first
string and he said some complimentary things about her in early season
and expected her to be out in May. Something has got in the way of that
but she has prospected of being good enough to compete for the win or place
FTO. His other newcomer is the 17th foal out of Council Rock whose
most famous daughter is Superstar Leo. Zellers is apparently a pretty
small one, as is often the case with foals out of old mare, so this semms
more likely to be getting her started to see whether she can compete at
In Summary at Windsor, the paddock review should quickly be able
to match up the chances of Dream Date, Moonlife & Tropical Paradise
against Peninsular Girl. Those with form aren't frightening on what we've
seen so a newcomer could compete well. If Albertine Girl is the bigger
type of Namid stock she could go well and the market might be some indicator
if she gets below 16/1.
The crutch for punters of being able to mark up strongly anything drawn
in double figures on the course and forget those in stalls 1-6 has been
absent for much of this year with the prevailing softer going. This seems
likely to be the case again and the best horses, that handle the going,
should be able to win from any draw.