British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - August 19th 
Races :-
  • 553: Brighton 2:00, 7f Maiden (5)
  • 554: York 2:15, 7f Group 3 (1) "Acomb Stakes"
  • 555: York 4:05, 6f Nursery (2)

  •   August 19th Summary : 
    • UPDATE - The day's meeting at York has been abandoned. The discussion of the Acomb Stakes below has been left on the site for information.
    • The first day of the York August Meeting as it extends to a four day stand this year. Heavy ground in place when the declarations for today's meetings were made. If you spend a lot of time on course doing paddock reviewing, whether 'Classical' condition, fitness & attitude type or B2yoR's version then softer going is a very good way to make you wonder whether you are doing it correctly. Horses can look splendid in condition and 'want it' and run shockers even though they are a good physical type for the contest. Horses that don't look in good shape or a bit outgunned by the better types can win by handling the ground conditions well.
    • To try to get a handle on whether this is a 'real' effect or just the well known human error of perceiving patterns when they aren't there B2yoR had a quick look at the SPs of winners for 2yos races in the season to date split down by going. The average across all races was 5.84/1, i.e. between 11/2 & 6/1 was the average SP of 2yo race winners. On Going described by Clerks of the Course (who vary markedly unfortunately) as Good the average SP was 6.4/1 and above the average. On going that was Good-to-Firm or quicker the average was 5.69/1 and just below the average and on Good-to-Soft or slower it was 6.69/1. So a longer average for SPs on easier going but not the wild difference that paddock reviewing in wet weather can sometimes make you expect as another apparently incomprehensible result pops up. 
    • The stats aware among you will be wanting to know how you get an average figure of 5.84 when the three groups given so far have averages of 6.69, 6.4 and 5.69. There must be a mighty big set of GF or quicker races? Well more than the GS or slower but the difference actually comes because we haven't thought about the All-Weather yet. The average for 2008 AW races was 3.8/1 and much lower than any of the others. Which might be telling us something quite interesting, perhaps profound, about AW racing and about the importance of consistent going for consistent results. But, that's where we came in so time to leave and have a quick ponder around the Acomb Stakes.
    • The 7f event was promoted from Listed status to be a Group 3 in 2006 (see article of the 2yo Pattern) to become the 34th race at Group level. Go back to 1999 and the figure was 26 and the recent upgrades from Listed to Group 3 include the 7f Superlative Stakes at Newmarket's July Meeting. You can argue against the upgrades in various ways but if they are to happen the recent winners of the Acomb make a better case for the upgrade than most of those that have been promoted. Just looking at the winners you have later Group 1 successes for King's Best, Rule Of Law & Palace Episode along with a Group 2 win for Auction House. Last year Fast Company won and then ran a strong second in the Group 1 Dewhurst before disappearing into the Godolphin 'box rest' stables (what a big place that must be) and Campanologist (3yo Group 2 winner was in 4th). The rest of the field was below Group standard.
    • This year's field looks solid but without looking high class unless The Cheka really is as good as his debut made him seem. He travelled well behind a solid set of 'maiden winner' types at Ascot before making them look poor by simply running away from them. Richard Quinn must have enough experience to be rarely caught out  by horses these days but looked genuinely surprised at what The Cheka did. He's big & strong enough to believe the Group quality is there and handled softer going at Ascot. He sets a strong standard. 
    • The majority of the field has not been paddock reviewed and, along with the 'wet ground' excuse, raises a few niggles but with high class horses you are looking for them to reveal themselves by doing something different in their early races and big winning distances and changes-of-pace are usually good indicators. This season we have seen South Central (now sold to race in Hong Kong), Orizaba & Rainbow View run away from lesser horses than the ones The Cheka dismissed and go on to Group wins. In that context he went into the 'notebook' as one to support in future.
    • Rileyskeepingfaith has more to give than he has shown in his last two races over 6f and this 7f appeals as what he needs. He has been keeping on in those last two runs after either getting outpaced or not wanting to exert himself. At Windsor last time he had bucked his jockey off on the way to the start and been awkward through the race but still almost won. He doesn't appeal as high class but a good each-way type here. [At times he has looked as if he might not want to 'try' but has always snapped out of it eventually. This season we have seen noted three good physical types in these previews who just refuse to show what they can do on the racetrack. Heliodor & Desire To Excel have both refused to shift themselves later in the race when things get a bit tough and Richard Hughes seemed to mouth the words 'Larey Bastard' (LB, also 'Lazy Bastard) to no-one in particular at Salisbury last week after returning from a carpet-beating ride on Heliodor who had cruised along for 4f before letting the others clear away from him. Kayceebee fits in the same category and got a 'get on with it or else' ride last time he ran. In the Gimcrack tomorrow we have another who perhaps fits more into the RileysKF category with Dabbers Chief who either loses concentration in races, or sulks or downs tool, before consenting to run on at the end. He's another who could put up a much improved performance if he would grouup and put a complete race together.]
    • Aiden O'Brien's record at York is similar to that at Royal Ascot in that it is a lot less good than you instinctively think. He tends to run useful types at the course and when he sends a higher class one they are often short of the level they reveal themselves to be at 3yo. He has had two places in this race in the last 5 years with Celtic Cat (2003) and Lucifer Sam (2007) but they weren't high class runners. The only wins he has had at the course in the last 5 years have been maiden wins for One Cool Cat (2003) and Marcus Andronicus (2005). In general opposing the O'Brien 2yos is a reasonable long term approach because he gets a lot of places with useful runners but they are often at SPs that are too short and the wins need his best types. Born To Be King is on his fourth outing having taken three goes to win a maiden when stepped up to 7f. He looks more like the 'useful' type on profile than the real deal.
    • The other runners have not been seen in paddock review although it is worth noting positives for two of them. Tom Dascombe has made the step from being a promising young trainer to arriving this year but his debut runners have still shown notable inexperience in most cases. Noverre To Go would probably have won on debut if he hadn't hung when challenging the experienced winner. He made his debut the day before Marine Boy who runs in the Gimcrack tomorrow so you presume the pair were mapped out to 'win' on debut with enough time to get them to this meeting. The trainer has already won Group races this year with lesser types so this one has to be taken seriously as a place contender.
    • Kevin Ryan has already made the same leap in 2yo terms that Dascombe has this year. Go back to 2005 and it was juvenile Group 1 wins by Amadeus Wolf & Palace Episode which confirmed his transformation. He has a good record in this race with Palace Episode winning it in 2005 and Gweebara placing the next year. Cook's Endeavour has achieved an OR of 76 in his three runs but his profile suggest he is better than that and a solid each way runner here. On debut he ran poorly having got unbalanced jumping a path and fading late. STO he was on the wrong side at Nottingham when the field split and the runners who finished first and second on the other side are above average. The winner has won a Conditions event since and when asked which 2yo he thought could improve in later season Bryan Smart nominated the maiden Master Rooney who was the second there.
    • In summary, The Cheka look high class on debut and if he handles the ground should set a stiff standard here and be a value bet around 2/1. Born TO Be King is likely to be opposable and Parisian Art perhaps fits into the non-value category as well (the Noseda colt B2yoR is really looking forward to having back is Himalya). Difficult to choose amongst the once raced maiden winners although Prince Siegfried appeals much more than Patrician's Glory who won a soft (& notably slow) event. Rileyskeepingfaith & Cook's Endeavour are likely to be of interest as each-way alternatives. Oh, and the race will demonstrate whether Lahaleeb is actually anything better than a good nursery winner.

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • None Today.

    ~ BTON 2:00 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 ANDHAAR [37] - 4 36 3 24 32
    11 TODAY'S THE DAY [32] +5 5 33 3 -6 42
    6 AL SABAHEYA [26] +5 1 35
    9 NIGHT LILY [25] +5 3 25 2 20 24
    5 POPIEL [22] - 1 49
    4 IMPERIAL SKYLIGHT [21] - 6 30 1 30 34
    7 DEAL CLINCHER [20] +5 5 29 3 9 29
    3 HONORABLE ENDEAVOR [19] - 2 -28 1 -28 36
    2 ARROGANCE [9] - 2 -88 1 -88 38
    8 DEFINITE HONEY [1] +5 2 -20 1 -20 22
    10 TALLULAH'S SECRET [0] +5 2 -88 1 -88 16

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    ~ YORK 2:15 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    8 THE CHEKA [75] - 2 73 1 73 20
    7 RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH [70] - 5 58 3 41 34
    6 PRINCE SIEGFRIED [68] - 2 45 1 45 34
    3 NOVERRE TO GO [67] - 2 44 1 44 29
    1 BORN TO BE KING [64] - 4 65
    4 PARISIAN ART [63] - 2 40 1 40 37
    2 COOK'S ENDEAVOUR [58] - 4 40 3 13 33
    9 LAHALEEB [57] +3 6 52 5 -2 34
    5 PATRICIAN'S GLORY [55] - 2 31 1 31 28

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    ~ YORK 4:05 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    4 FAVOURITE GIRL [46] - 8 40 7 13 18
    2 CARNABY HAGGERSTON [45] -2 6 42 5 30 33
    8 LISBURN [44] +8 9 34 2 31 23
    10 COLEORTON CHOICE [43] +12 5 27 4 23 33
    3 DEADLY ENCOUNTER [43] -1 5 52 1 52 32
    5 HARRIET'S GIRL [43] +3 5 37 4 -8 35
    6 LAKEMAN [43] +6 5 35 2 32
    9 AY TAY TATE [40] +9 5 33 2 26
    7 RIVER RYE [38] +6 7 35 2 33 35
    1 POLISH PRIDE [37] -4 7 34 6 23 23

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