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UPDATE - The day's meeting at York has been abandoned. The discussion
of the Acomb Stakes below has been left on the site for information.
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The first day of the York August Meeting as it extends to a four day stand
this year. Heavy ground in place when the declarations for today's meetings
were made. If you spend a lot of time on course doing paddock reviewing,
whether 'Classical' condition, fitness & attitude type or B2yoR's version
then softer going is a very good way to make you wonder whether you are
doing it correctly. Horses can look splendid in condition and 'want it'
and run shockers even though they are a good physical type for the contest.
Horses that don't look in good shape or a bit outgunned by the better types
can win by handling the ground conditions well.
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To try to get a handle on whether this is a 'real' effect or just the well
known human error of perceiving patterns when they aren't there B2yoR had
a quick look at the SPs of winners for 2yos races in the season to date
split down by going. The average across all races was 5.84/1, i.e. between
11/2 & 6/1 was the average SP of 2yo race winners. On Going described
by Clerks of the Course (who vary markedly unfortunately) as Good
the average SP was 6.4/1 and above the average. On going that was Good-to-Firm
or quicker the average was 5.69/1 and just below the average and on Good-to-Soft
or slower it was 6.69/1. So a longer average for SPs on easier going but
not the wild difference that paddock reviewing in wet weather can sometimes
make you expect as another apparently incomprehensible result pops up.
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The stats aware among you will be wanting to know how you get an average
figure of 5.84 when the three groups given so far have averages of 6.69,
6.4 and 5.69. There must be a mighty big set of GF or quicker races? Well
more than the GS or slower but the difference actually comes because we
haven't thought about the All-Weather yet. The average for 2008 AW races
was 3.8/1 and much lower than any of the others. Which might be telling
us something quite interesting, perhaps profound, about AW racing and about
the importance of consistent going for consistent results. But, that's
where we came in so time to leave and have a quick ponder around the Acomb
Stakes.
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The 7f event was promoted from Listed status to be a Group 3 in 2006 (see
article
of the 2yo Pattern) to become the 34th race at Group level. Go back to
1999 and the figure was 26 and the recent upgrades from Listed to Group
3 include the 7f Superlative Stakes at Newmarket's July Meeting. You can
argue against the upgrades in various ways but if they are to happen the
recent winners of the Acomb make a better case for the upgrade than most
of those that have been promoted. Just looking at the winners you have
later Group 1 successes for King's Best, Rule Of Law & Palace Episode
along with a Group 2 win for Auction House. Last year Fast Company won
and then ran a strong second in the Group 1 Dewhurst before disappearing
into the Godolphin 'box rest' stables (what a big place that must be) and
Campanologist (3yo Group 2 winner was in 4th). The rest of the field was
below Group standard.
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This year's field looks solid but without looking high class unless The
Cheka really is as good as his debut made him seem. He travelled well
behind a solid set of 'maiden winner' types at Ascot before making them
look poor by simply running away from them. Richard Quinn must have enough
experience to be rarely caught out by horses these days but looked
genuinely surprised at what The Cheka did. He's big & strong enough
to believe the Group quality is there and handled softer going at Ascot.
He sets a strong standard.
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The majority of the field has not been paddock reviewed and, along with
the 'wet ground' excuse, raises a few niggles but with high class horses
you are looking for them to reveal themselves by doing something different
in their early races and big winning distances and changes-of-pace are
usually good indicators. This season we have seen South Central (now sold
to race in Hong Kong), Orizaba & Rainbow View run away from lesser
horses than the ones The Cheka dismissed and go on to Group wins. In that
context he went into the 'notebook' as one to support in future.
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Rileyskeepingfaith has more to give than he has shown in his last
two races over 6f and this 7f appeals as what he needs. He has been keeping
on in those last two runs after either getting outpaced or not wanting
to exert himself. At Windsor last time he had bucked his jockey off on
the way to the start and been awkward through the race but still almost
won. He doesn't appeal as high class but a good each-way type here. [At
times he has looked as if he might not want to 'try' but has always snapped
out of it eventually. This season we have seen noted three good physical
types in these previews who just refuse to show what they can do on the
racetrack. Heliodor & Desire To Excel have both refused to shift themselves
later in the race when things get a bit tough and Richard Hughes seemed
to mouth the words 'Larey Bastard' (LB, also 'Lazy Bastard) to no-one in
particular at Salisbury last week after returning from a carpet-beating
ride on Heliodor who had cruised along for 4f before letting the others
clear away from him. Kayceebee fits in the same category and got a 'get
on with it or else' ride last time he ran. In the Gimcrack tomorrow we
have another who perhaps fits more into the RileysKF category with Dabbers
Chief who either loses concentration in races, or sulks or downs tool,
before consenting to run on at the end. He's another who could put up a
much improved performance if he would grouup and put a complete race together.]
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Aiden O'Brien's record at York is similar to that at Royal Ascot in that
it is a lot less good than you instinctively think. He tends to run useful
types at the course and when he sends a higher class one they are often
short of the level they reveal themselves to be at 3yo. He has had two
places in this race in the last 5 years with Celtic Cat (2003) and Lucifer
Sam (2007) but they weren't high class runners. The only wins he has had
at the course in the last 5 years have been maiden wins for One Cool Cat
(2003) and Marcus Andronicus (2005). In general opposing the O'Brien 2yos
is a reasonable long term approach because he gets a lot of places with
useful runners but they are often at SPs that are too short and the wins
need his best types. Born To Be King is on his fourth outing having
taken three goes to win a maiden when stepped up to 7f. He looks more like
the 'useful' type on profile than the real deal.
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The other runners have not been seen in paddock review although it is worth
noting positives for two of them. Tom Dascombe has made the step from being
a promising young trainer to arriving this year but his debut runners have
still shown notable inexperience in most cases. Noverre To Go would
probably have won on debut if he hadn't hung when challenging the experienced
winner. He made his debut the day before Marine Boy who runs in the Gimcrack
tomorrow so you presume the pair were mapped out to 'win' on debut with
enough time to get them to this meeting. The trainer has already won Group
races this year with lesser types so this one has to be taken seriously
as a place contender.
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Kevin Ryan has already made the same leap in 2yo terms that Dascombe has
this year. Go back to 2005 and it was juvenile Group 1 wins by Amadeus
Wolf & Palace Episode which confirmed his transformation. He has a
good record in this race with Palace Episode winning it in 2005 and Gweebara
placing the next year. Cook's Endeavour has achieved an OR of 76
in his three runs but his profile suggest he is better than that and a
solid each way runner here. On debut he ran poorly having got unbalanced
jumping a path and fading late. STO he was on the wrong side at Nottingham
when the field split and the runners who finished first and second on the
other side are above average. The winner has won a Conditions event since
and when asked which 2yo he thought could improve in later season Bryan
Smart nominated the maiden Master Rooney who was the second there.
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In summary, The Cheka look high class on debut and if he handles
the ground should set a stiff standard here and be a value bet around 2/1.
Born TO Be King is likely to be opposable and Parisian Art perhaps fits
into the non-value category as well (the Noseda colt B2yoR is really looking
forward to having back is Himalya). Difficult to choose amongst the once
raced maiden winners although Prince Siegfried appeals much more than Patrician's
Glory who won a soft (& notably slow) event. Rileyskeepingfaith &
Cook's Endeavour are likely to be of interest as each-way alternatives.
Oh, and the race will demonstrate whether Lahaleeb is actually anything
better than a good nursery winner.
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