Spinight (Yarmouth, M Botti, All Debuts). Trainer's 7th debut
of the year and none of the other 6 have won. But that hides the fact that
4 of the 6 have placed with Kouloura's second at 16/1 two days ago to add
to the list of places 9/1 and 10/1 twice. The other two FTOs have finished
4th in double figure fields. So, the trainer is still showing the previous
traits of not running the horses until they are ready to show a lot of
their inate ability.
He also only seems to run those who he is sure can win at 2yo or are definitely
not going to develop so need to run now. Of the four who have run at least
twice three have won STO at SPs of 4/1, 3/1 & 6/1. An interesting
trainer to follow.
Spinight is a cheap purchase for an Italian owner (he has a similar newcomer
tomorrow for the same man) with an Italian 7lb apprentice on. So not an
obviously better class one but should be ready enough to look after himself.
The Yarmouth maiden is interesting with Donativum likely to favourite and
a distinct possibility he will end up at too short a price. He got lost
in a big field on debut and was in the process of closing up on Free Agent
when he hung and bumped into that rival and lost ground. He dropped to
5f for a Listed race at Royal Ascot and finished 7th. Like many Royal Ascot
races the form is easy to over-rate and those around him and close behind
him haven't suggested the form was that strong.
He returns after a break having shown flashes of form but not as high class
as it is possibly to suggest. He has a solid opponent in Magaling and Tarzan,
on profile, ought to be much better than he showed FTO. Celtic Rebel was
a likeable type at the sales whom the trainer was talking up as an early
at the Guineas meeting. There has presumably been a problem along the way
but he has prospects to be better than the average trainer debut runner
(although, in his first season with the licence) his debuts have been less
ready overall than his father's best 2yos were.
In summary, not a race to lazily think that Donativum is a certainty with
his whiff of Royal Ascot about him. If he has come back mentally and physically
improved he can win but doesn't look value at the forescast 11/10 range
with a bit more in opposition than is visible from the form figures.