British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - September 7th 
Races :-
  • 661: Thirsk 2:30, 6f Seller (6)
  • 662: Thirsk 3:00, 8f Maiden (4)

  •   September 7th Summary : 
     
    • Today's meeting at Thirsk  has passed the early morning inspection of the track going conditions.

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Peaceful Rule (Thirsk 2:30, D Nicholls, September+ Debuts). Trainer had no debut winner between 2001 to 2004 but has had five in the period 2005-7 as the number of 2yos he trains has increased. Over the last 10 years he has been notable for showing different tactics with his 2yos and at times he appeared to be struggling to find the right approach. At times the Strike Rate with juveniles has bumped along at a lowly 4-6% but two of the last three years have been at a very good 22% and it is around 15% in 2008 to date. This has partly been helped by increased spending power. He has a good record 2005-7 with yearlings that cost 20,000 guineas of more which have produced 8 juvenile winners from 15 horses.
    • Now, in 2005 all his debuts were complete by July and included two debut winners. In the last two seasons he has had more debuts from August onwards with two long priced debut wins with better types (like Valery Borzov who is still improving at 4yo). This season he has already run eleven 2yos and three have won on debut (May x 2 and July). SPs of 20/1 (twice) and 16/1 leave him with an enormous profit on debuts already this year.
    • Either he has changed again and gone back to the 2005 model of getting the 2yos out early or perhaps he has more horses this year and still has a set of more expensive 2yos to come out in later season. He will need to have if his debuts from September to November are going to show a profit. On the plus side the earlier FTO wins this year show he can still get one prepared for debut (on the other side the 4TO 'blossoming' wins of Gower Valentine & Parisian Pyramid at Goodwood after ambling around in the north on their earlier runs shows that he doesn't have a consistent, targeted, approach like a Mark Prescott).
    • Peaceful Rule cost 50,000 guineas so is another of those more expensive purchases who ought to have an even chance of being a winner at 2yo. On the other hand the trainer hasn't had a debut winner above 6 furlongs and 8f debut wins are quite rare and often indicative of high class horses. The trainer has not had a debut at 8f since 2003 and his last two longer distance debuts were very slow horses who never showed any worthwhile form. Can Peaceful Rule really be that bad or is he adapting and having a go 8f debuts with the more expensive purchases?

    ~ THSK 2:30 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    11 GLAN LADY [17] - 2 8 1 8 18
    4 NCHIKE [14] -5 10 13 9 -12 43
    13 JESSICA MARY [13] - 3 13 1 13 25
    7 ALIBAR'S SURPRISE [11] - 2 -60 1 -60
    9 FOREVER'S GIRL [10] - 4 10 3 8
    5 TITO GOBBI [8] -5 5 14 1 14
    18 SONETT [6] - 5 13 2 -21 10
    1 TIME LOUP [6] -11 7 9 3 -4
    8 DANCING WAVE [5] - 7 17 3 -2
    2 KNEESY EARSY NOSEY [5] -6 7 9 1 9
    10 FUTURE GEM [1] - 5 -3 4 -65
    3 DANDERDANDAN [0] -5 3 -66 2 -120
    12 ISHIQUICK [0] - 3 -24 1 -24 18
    14 MISS XU XIA [0] - 4 -11 1 -11
    15 SAMBA QUEEN [0] - 6 4 2 -10 18
    16 SENORA VERDE [0] - 6 -8 4 -43
    17 SMOKE ME A KIPPER [0] - 5 1 3 -4 30
    19 STACEYS GIRL [0] - 3 -17 2 -75 45
    6 WILLON DILLON [0] -5 3 -65 1 -65

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    ~ THSK 3:00 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    4 GUESTOFTHENATION [33] - 2 21 1 21 32
    3 DREAMONANDON [30] - 1 39
    5 HUXAAR [27] - 4 24 3 -31
    2 DISTANT MEMORIES [26] - 1 45
    8 PEACEFUL RULE [25] - 1 43
    13 MADAMLILY [19] +5 2 6 1 6 29
    12 LOMICA [18] +5 2 -15 1 -15 24
    7 NAYESSENCE [7] - 2 1 20
    6 KINGAROO [3] - 5 5 3 -26
    1 ADDISON DEWITT [2] - 2 -5 1 -5
    9 SAFFRON'S SON [1] - 1
    11 ACCUMULATION [0] +5 2 -16 1 -16 20
    10 THATWASTHEPENSION [0] - 3 -64 2 -82

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