British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - September 8th 
Races :-
  • 663: Bath 2:10, 5f Fillies' Auction (6)
  • 664: Bath 2:40, 8f Nursery (5)
  • 665: Folkestone 2:20, 7f Maiden (5) Div I
  • 666: Folkestone 2:50, 7f Maiden (5) Div II
  • 667: Folkestone 3:50, 6f Novice (4)

  •   September 8th Summary : 
     
    • For those who like to look at the VPs the Bath nursery has all 9 horses pictured. The topweight is In Transit on OR73. The other eight have official ratings as follows - Penton Hook (72), River Captain (70), Bright Enough (69 with 6lb penalty for recent 7 length win and will presumably be reassessed into the mid to higher 70s), Musical Maze (66), Arushore (66), Daily Planet (60), Cherry Belle (55), Lyonesse (55).
    • A brief set of pointers. In Transit is running in his 6th nursery and started on OR86, having been souped up for early season, which was too high for his physical type. OR73 is perhaps a little high but he might be a Channon runner that wins again in the season because he will keep running until his OR gets down to whatever is his real level - 69, 66, whatever.
    • Penton Hook looks ok as an OR73 type and has a bit more size than In Transit and a balanced enough set up. His narrowness means he lacks pace and kept responding over 7f at Folkestone last time after others had moved a bit more fluently at the trip. 8f looks a good move for him. River Captain is a typical little 'un that Sylvester Kirk seems to buy a lot of for cheap money. He showed nothing much in three maiden runs prior to a nursery win off OR63. In particular it is worth noting his 7th at Sandown 3TO which looks a suspect race in quality terms. The second from that race (Beraimi) was easily beaten at Lingfield last week and Michael Jarvis said that he showed little at home and he didn't think the Sandown race was very good before that defeat. His nursery win was from similar limited types and OR70 doesn't look right for him.
    • Bright Enough's Paddock Review notes from her debut at Folkestone noted she looked like a heavy 'chest of drawers' and about as easy to shift (Picture). She clearly wasn't fit that day and by her seond run two weeks later she had livened up somewhat (Picture) to give some hop that the strength she has (packaged in a compact body length for a 'stayer') might be shiftable. The third run saw a volunteer second behind a clear winner and last Wednesday she turned up in a Kempton nursery off OR63 (Picture). She's a different girl from that podgy debutante and has added a shiny coat and a lets-go-for-it attitude to spice up the deal (these sort of 'wellbeing' factors often show up when you see a horse being backed strongly in the 'Market'). She wins by 8 lengths from a duff bunch. Compare her to River Captain and she's much more powerful and believable as the better horse. She ought to go well off OR69 if her short bodied set-up works ok on soft going (she has to take more strides than a lengthier type).
    • Musical Maze finished ahead of Bright Enough during that fillies' development runs and looking at her you can see why she 'came to hand' quicker. Taller but very lightly built and she isn't going to need a lot of work to get her fit. Keeping the weight on her is more likely the issue. But, although lacking power she's rangy and athletic enough to make some use of what she has and has won off OR61 and is OR 66 here. Probably a bit over her ideal and needs to fill out to have scope to continue in the 60s over the next 12 months+. Comparing Bright Enough & Musical Maze you have two different decisions in the Power/Efficiency balance. One is powerfully built but you need to be convinced it can move efficiently. The other is rangy and looks to move ok but you have to have doubts that there is enough power there to make usable progress and control the rangy movement comfortable.
    • Arushore is another compact litle trundler with an immature attitude added in. He's already been beaten of OR65 and is OR66 here. Well prepared by the trainer for his previous runs and needs to blossom to be anything better than an okish shout off OR66 in an average race for the class. Daily Planet scored his only positive rating in 4 runs in that Sandown 'Beraimi' race as a further clue that it was too highly marked. Small, immature and underpowered. Low 60s at best and probably a 50s type with the trainer. The bottom pair of fillies are small and weak types and 55 isn't a bargain. Try looking at Lyonesse's picture and 'small, bit-and-pieces, trundler' might well come to mind. Try comparing her to the other Hannon runner - Arushore - in terms of size, strength & neatness (of body geometry and set-up) and the difference is an OR65 type to an OR55 (downhill, with the wind behind her) type. The picture of Cherry Belle is as a yearling.
    • In summary the range from OR73 to OR55 is quite well demonstrated by the field and why those that have won have managed to and why the ones above 70 or threatening to be (Bight Enough) have managed it. Remember, when this group all appeared in maidens on debut it would be perfectly possible to have a good stab at placing them somewhere between OR75 to OR50 on the physical type alone. You could then have had a better handle on the likely level of the form of the races they ran in and what the likely better types were by comparison.

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Sign Of Approval  (Folkestone 3:50, KR Burke, 5-6f Debuts)

    ~ BATH 2:10 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    4 PEPER HAROW [34] - 6 45 2 22 22
    3 YANZA [28] -2 3 23 2 -7
    6 CALEDONIA PRINCESS [23] +4 3 13 1 13 35
    7 PERFECT FRIEND [16] +4 3 8 2 4 22
    8 RAPANUI BELLE [15] +4 5 13 2 -30
    1 CARESSING [14] -4 4 7 3 3 28
    2 THAT BOY RONALDO [14] -2 7 12 4 -46
    9 TWENTY SCORE [1] +4 1 35
    5 RIVER STYLE [0] +2 2 -80 1 -80 34

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    ~ BATH 2:40 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    4 BRIGHT ENOUGH [37] - 5 14 3 9 25
    2 PENTON HOOK [30] -3 4 25 3 22 34
    1 IN TRANSIT [28] -4 12 41 6 25 28
    6 ARUSHORE [27] +3 5 19 4 -7 28
    8 CHERRY BELLE [25] +14 9 12 5 -16 28
    5 MUSICAL MAZE [25] +3 6 18 5 -4 6
    9 LYONESSE [24] +14 4 6 2 -1 28
    3 RIVER CAPTAIN [23] -1 5 20 4 17 22
    7 DAILY PLANET [17] +9 5 1 3 -90 30

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    ~ FOLK 2:20 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 BRAZILIAN ART [30] - 4 33 2 -17 39
    9 ZEBRANO [28] - 5 38 3 12
    10 ATTAINABLE [21] +5 1 36
    4 DESTINY QUEST [18] - 2 -12 1 -12 38
    5 GOOGOOBARABAJAGAL [14] - 2 4 1 4
    8 NORTH CAPE [14] - 1 32
    7 MARCUS CRASSUS [11] - 3 -4 1 -4 19
    2 BUBSES BOY [8] - 3 3 1 3 33
    3 DARK RANGER [5] - 3 -3 2 -5
    11 MISS TIKITIBOO [4] +5 2 -20 1 -20 21
    6 ITSHIM [2] - 3 -30 1 -30 23

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    ~ FOLK 2:50 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    2 CAPTAIN ELLIS [44] - 3 50 1 50 29
    6 MISHRIF [35] - 2 22 1 22 39
    5 MERTON LAD [25] - 1 26
    10 CONGENIAL [22] +5 2 -24 1 -24 28
    8 ROYAL WILLY [20] - 1 19
    1 BAGBER [19] - 3 28 1 28 19
    9 STAR LINKS [18] - 1 28
    11 KATIE HIGGINS [17] +5 2 14 1 14 18
    3 COOL STRIKE [5] - 1 33
    7 ORANGELEG [2] - 3 -22 2 -50 23
    4 DONTFORGETURSHOVEL [0] - 2 -25 1 -25 26

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    ~ FOLK 3:50 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 IMPERIAL GUEST [43] - 6 44 5 12
    4 SIGN OF APPROVAL [42] +15 1 29
    2 PORTUGESE CADDY [40] +7 2 33 1 33 34
    3 CONFUCIUS CAPTAIN [32] +15 1 15

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