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Worth noting a couple of points about high class races early in the 2yo
season and how they can be over-rated and the type of horses that run in
them. The first Group races of the year are at Royal Ascot in mid June
when around 1,000 of the 3,000 2yos that will run during the turf season
have been seen. This is still early in the 2yo season and a lot of the
runners will be precocious types lacking physical development. If they
are worked hard and got very fit and knowing they can compete well enough
in high class races and get over-rated and the rest of the season is spent
with them struggling as they drop down into lower class races. Remember
that to stay in the same place in absolute rating terms a 2yo has
to make 14-18lbs improvement over the year (at different distances) and
between 9-14lbs from June to year end. The precocious wind-ups don't have
that imporvement and gradually sink back to their true position in the
ratings after the early inflation.
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Let's go back to one of the 'Magic' Official Ratings numbers which keeps
turning up - OR88. A moderate Group winner at 2yo, say a Sirenia Stakes
winner, will get rated in the OR102-8 range because that is what the race
winner wil get regardless of the actual qulaity of the race. They were
precocious sprint 2yos with some development potential but not the 'normal'
amount so they drift back through the OR90s at 2yo struggling to win (i.e.,
one version of what '..failing to train on..' means) and eventually
win a handicap getting back down to the OR88 range.
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OR88 also often turns up as the rating that the early 2yos who had a go
in high class races will have when they descend to nurseries. They don't
even have the development potential to get through the 2yo season without
'failing to train on' as the average performance bar for horses of a certain
age moves ever higher. A common feature of the 2yo season will be a trainer
who lacks knowledge of real class in 2yos being very gushing about a precocious
2yo and how he's Group class when it is really an OR80s 2yo who has developed
early. The trainer hasn't seen enough quality 2yos to know the difference.
People like Henry Candy, Mark Prescott, Peter Chapple-Hyam etc. do know
what real quality is and you should take notice when they say one they
have is high class in mid-season.
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Yesterday at Great Leighs Fazbee (Picture)
turned up as topweight in a fillies' nursery off OR88 having had a go in
two Listed races plus the Group 3 Sweet Solera since the early season win
in a minor Auction. If you hadn't seen her since her debut at Windsor (Picture)
when she looked small, narrow bodied and limited you would be expecting
her to have developed better than expected given she did manage to win
a Novice event comfortably LTO. But, as the first picture shows because
she is now hard trained and very fit she actually looks smaller. Any thought
that she would beat this field with a front-running display evaporate and
perhaps downgrade that Novice win. [Frontrunning and staying close to the
rail in the straight proved less of advantage on the day and runners could
make ground in the middle of the course. The first race saw a very srong
pace with the front group staying in much the same order down the straight
and the best of the three outpaced runners who were well back at halfway
managed to stay on through this walking group in the final furlong. Once
a frontrunning bias becomes apparent the jockeys may well compromise it
through duels for track position and the tractor owners go and harrow the
strip near the rail to shift the bias....]
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Today we have another example with Cerito in the Musselburgh nursery
off OR88. Think back to mid-May and Mick Channon produced Cerito to win
a modest race by 6 lengths at Bath on debut and two days later Orizaba
won FTO two days later by 9 lengths at Newbury. Both were talked up as
the real thing and Orizaba (the bigger specimen anyway) has filled out
and developed and won a Group race at Goodwood (without having to be much
better than he was on debut). Cerito looked a smaller, narrow bodied type
and very fit and ready for debut. His career progression has gone Group
race (6th in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot in a race which looks badly over-rated
but hey, it got South Central sold for a lot of money to Hong Kong..),
Listed race (disappointing 6th in the Rose Bowl Stakes), Novice event (3rd
of 4) and now, with his OR down from 92 to 88 he is topweight in this nursery.
It looks an interesting group and there ought to be horses still going
upwards in relative development who can deal with him.
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Mick Channon is a regular in turning out runners who are very forward in
preparation terms early in the season and often runs 2yos in high class
races and doesn't bother too much about the handicap marks. This is because
he is happy to sell horses on with the inflated rating an advantage or
run them umpteen times to get the OR down or whatever is needed to get
the best from the deal. Try looking up Polar Force's (2003 2yo) career
as one example. He won on debut in April and then had a speculative run
in an Irish Group 1 and finished third and he was suddenly an OR105 horse
even though it looked like an OR88 one and his subsequent runs confirmed
he was an 'OR88 and descending' type. 16 runs at 3yo saw a few places and
his OR work doen from 92 to 63. 6 more goes for Channon at 4yo and he was
sold off with an OR59 tag. At 5yo, with a new trainer, he won threee races
and got back to the OR70ish rating he always was likely to be given the
OR88 form he showed at 2yo linked to the -20 for the lack of development
from 2-3yo he had. On the plus side for Channon this long career is not
untypical for one of his 2yos that got going in early season.
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Which brings us to Flying Lady who runs in a nursery for Channon
at Leicester but off OR70. After an ordinary debut in a moderate fillies'
auction she ran in the Listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot and finished
fourth. The later runs of the placed horses from that race have made it
looked very moderate by Listed standards and the official handicapper has
taken this into account. Even when you are aware that over-rating races
like this is a trap wating for you to topple into, as B2yoR is, the hype
of the Royal meeting can get to you and Flying Lady's estimate of 47 from
that race is clearly much too high.
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