| 02 Apr
| The first newcomer is straight out of 'Central Casting'.
Rod Millman made his name with precocious 2yos and has always had a fondness
for the cult sire Makbul who produced his first major winner with Lord
Kintyre. Mr Millman has varied the readiness of his 2yos in early season
in recent years, partly in response to how good they are. In 2005 he had
a group of natural 2yos and won most of the earliest races (including two
with another useful son of Makbul in Phantom Whisper). In the last two
years the debuts have been less ready and probably partly in response to
realising he used up all his ammunition in 2 weeks in 2005.
Normally the earliest debuts will include the best of his early runners
and the likely winners. If you look at this FTO-RAG
table from 2007 it shows a typical shape to the debuts in what was a poor
year for him. The table shows details of his debut runs in 2007 ordered
by date. A horse name in a green cell indicates a winner during the year,
an amber cell a placer in the year and red is for unplaced on all runs.
The pattern of his first two runners being winners followed by a gap to
later April & into May (can be later) for the other winner to start
out is typical for him. Note also the long tail of red with the odd yeallow
in the second half of his debuts. In general this is typical with the competent
2yos identified quite early and the development types and useless mostly
left to later season.
His first runner last year was an even cheaper son of Makbul than his representative
here is - Mr Clearview. Sauze D'Oulx in 2007 managed to win two races and
get an OR into the 80s and an indicator of what a good sire of precocious
2yos Makbul can be. Mr Clearview cost 11,000 guineas (to Sauze D'Oulx's
4,000). The sales report B2yoR got on him suggested an 'Early, or nothing'
type and a sub OR70 rater. On the positive side he was the expected ready
type and a good mover. He could easily get an OR avove 70 because of the
early start without being the 'real thing' (see Estimates Background article).
To complete the feeling we are going around the same neighbourhood each
year Mr Millman has regularly targeted the early Nottingham races for FTO
wins with his better 2yos. He hasn't achieved on in recent years though
and a look at that 2007 RAG table shows that both Sauze D'Oulx & Brassini
(debuted in this race) were not highly tuned for debut. Go back
far enough and he was winning the equivalent of this race in 2000 with
Maktavish and no prizes for guessing who the sire was.
In summary. Likely to be a usable 2yo and able to win givent he early start.
Unless he is much readier than the trainer's 2yos have been in 2006-7 he
ought to find the fillies' a bit too streetwise and fit for him today.
The sales report didn't suggest he would be good enough to win on plain
ability like a Maktavish.
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