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A maximum field of 10 fillies declared for
the auction race at Lingfield. This is a class 6 race and low quality with
the highest priced in the field having cost €20,000 as a yearling
and the cheapest retained for £500. Last year's race had 8 fillies
and the six who are still in the country have OR ratings between 56 to
74. The winner was a classic Mick Channon early season Lingfield debut
success for owner's Box 41 and she ran 16 more times for two later wins,
the final one off an OR of 72. The only other still with a rating over
70 finished unplaced in the race having been left 8 lengths out of the
stalls. She won an early season fillies maiden and is rated OR71 now. You
wonder how both of those ratings will survive as 3yos.
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The other fillies in 2009's edition managed
a win in a nursery of an OR50s figure between them. In 2008 the six runners
managed just a single later win in a seller ignoring the winner. The winner
was Percolator who only cost 2,000 guineas as a yearling but managed to
win a weak french Group 3 so this type of race can throw up a surprise.
But, in each year the best filly managed to get to the front and the only
other OR70+ rater had an excuse of a slow break for finishing amongst the
garbage.
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Which means we should not be expecting too
much from this group other than the odd minor later win unless there
is a real surprise package amongst them. The three that appeal as most
likely winners & placers are Wotsthehurry, Scarlet Rocks
&
Tupelo. The first of those represents Mick Channon and, as
last year showed us, this is the sort of early race he gets a debut winner
in if he is to have one at all. at £5,500 as a yearling by new sire
Proclamation she does not have a speedy pedigree. To some extent a case
of trusting the trainer to have chosen a reasonably competitive one and
a weak race to see her competing at the top of the profile. The performance
of the Channon pair at Kempton on Saturday was typical of the type of runs
he has in this sort of early race and he managed a second. His runner here
is unlikely to run into a Hannon 'Takeway' so her own lack of quality might
be less of a problem.
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If there is going to be a strong debut performance
then the best of the David Evans pair may still be the answer despite the
efforts of his three runners to date. His two runners in the Brocklesby
were both on the 'tiny' side even by his standards and just got blown away
by bigger, and better, horses. His runner at Kempton also looked small
but had enough nous and go to be second to the bend from a wide draw. That
one did not see the 5f out but with a bit more size and/or ability would
have placed.
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It is interesting to see how Evans is now
using a range of top jockeys and B2yoR thinks back to the days when Joanna
Badger was riding the best of his early 2yos. Over the last few days he
has used Eddie Ahern, Jamie Spencer, Tom Queally, Jimmy Fortune and Robert
Winston in this race to back up Catherine Gannon. Like a lottery winner
flaunting his spending power now he is the '100+ winner a year' trainer
with good horses to ride. Mind you, he has spent 20 years grafting
to be an overnight success. Choosing Scarlet Rocks as the more likely prospect
for a debut win is partly because of Winston riding rather than Gannon
and partly because she has the more believable 5f pedigree than Bajan
Bullet.
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Scarlet Rocks is by Chineur who had early
5f wins in his first year in 2009 and out of a good class Irish dam. Bajan
Bullet is by imported sire With Approval who hasn't had a 2yo win here yet
out of an unplaced, stouter, dam. Despite the start we should be expecting
1 or 2 early debut wins for the trainer and Scarlet Rocks has a pretty
good profile.
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Each year Paul D'Arcy tends to choose his
early runners with care. If he has a good one, or even one competitive
at a low level, it will be the first or second runner. They are often ready
to compete for the places on debut if a bit of ability is there. Even a
weaker one can place in a race like this on relative competence. Tupelo
only cost €1,800 so looks more like a 'small one' getting going before
the races get mildly competitive but she should be ready to compete. A
sort of 'Volunteer 3rd' at a longer price and might win and even get a
bit of support in the Market if she is better than the price tag suggests.
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While looking at past trainer records will
get you a long way they can mean you are left lagging behind reality if
a trainer changes the plan. A newer reader of this Preview will probably
be asking why Mandy's Princess has not been talked up yet. Richard
Fahey has won the Brocklesby and the performance of his older horses at
Doncaster suggested his string is ready to go early. The 'History' bit
says that his stable really gets going with 2yos in May with just the odd
earlier winner. On that Model Mandy's Princess either indicates he has
got a larger set of 2yos ready to run early or perhaps owner Marwan
Koukash (who had My Mandy run 4th in last year's edition for non-2yo trainer
Ian Williams) has applied a bit of pressure. The B2yoR take (for Today)
is that Chiswick Bey was an absolute natural and stood out, with Lady Brookie,
in a bubbly field for the Brocklesby for quiet professionalism. Fahey has
not changed the overall plan that much. Which means that Mandy's Princess
will run a place if she is usable as prep for a STO peak. If she pings
the stalls and wins by 2 lengths never headed then certainly time to tinker
with the view.
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Of the others you feel very safe dismissing
any 2yo Peter Grayson has without thinking much, if at all, so hello Tessa
and no thanks. Bill Turner does not group up the competitive 2yos he has
to run first and they will be a mix of abilities. Lady Brookie showed what
the best he has can do but Crazy In love reads more like a weaker
one even if competent. He followed up an ok Brocklesby runner in 2009 by
running Secret Rose in this event and she was unplaced an never won. Indian
Dip was retained very cheaply and reads like another small one getting
going on the off-chance.
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More interest in Gay Kelleway's Primo Lady
because the trainer has shown an improvement in handling 2yos in the last
couple of years. In 2008-9 her first runner has been a filly that showed
up well in an open maiden FTO before winning STO. This one is a sibling
to two 5f 2yo winners including a full sister to 2009 winner Lucky Mellor.
Enough in the profile she might be a minor winner early and the trainer
seems to be able to convert the promise now. How well she goes here should
be informative.
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Stan Moore often has a lot of early runners
but rarely has debut wins unless he has an OR80+ type. The defining factor
of his handling is how long it can take for a 2yo he has that has shown
a bit of promise to win. The wins on the AW over the winter for the likes
of Maoi Chinn Tire, Kinky Afro, Exceedthewildman, Avow, Mnarani & Kathindi
after fullish 2yo careers being good examples. He had two fillies run in
the equivalent race in 2009 and both were backed with one finishing second. That
pair are still maidens and rated 58 & 60. His two runners to date have
not been competitive.
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Sheila's Star is a bit of a surprise
because she is the most expensive in the field. She also is an oddity because
she is new sire Hurricane Run's first representative. Since he started
his career over 9f in late season and was best known as a 12f runner an
early 5f winner wouldn't be that likely. Although expensive for the race
she was cheap by the sire's yearling standards. Her dam was a 6f winner
so adds a bit of zip. One of those reasonably sized but peculiar shaped
2yos that the trainer has you suspect. And, although, likely to win that
may be some time off. Perhaps next January in a claimer here over 8-10f.
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In Summary. A race that traditionally either
Wotsthehurry or Scarlet Rocks would win so long as there isn't a lurker.
Tupelo would probably place on preparedness even without OR65 ability.
A vague possibility the Turner filly Crazy In Love might be good
enough but on balance unlikely. Interest in judging Primo Lady for STO
& Sheila's Star for 'sometime' if we are all spared that long. A poser
over whether Mandy's Princess is here because Fahey has changed his approach
or Mr Koukash has badgered his trainers to get some early action. On the
current information more likely to be a placer at best.
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