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Make the most of the Folkestone race,
flawed as it appears, because it is the last 2yo race until Easter Monday.
We are treated to a single seller on that Bank Holiday before we start
again properly. In the interim the Previews will have a look back at the
Southwell races on Wednesday one of which produced a 2yo Course Record.
A stiff tailwind on the day and a wet, tight, surface of sand to help with
the times but two interesting races with a pair of horses pulling
takingly clear in each event. We will also look at the Trainer 'FTO RAG'
files and muse around what the colour patterns might be telling us. If
you have had a look at one and thought "So What!" then time to attend and
be pointed at the "What".
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The first pass through the Profile for Folkestone
leaves the impression that it is full of cheap ones, a number retained
and some owner breds with moderate pedigrees. The most expensive cost 17,000
guineas which is cheap by Saeed Manana standards. We then drop straight
down to the Evans and Bill Turners reps at £6,500 & 4,000gns
when those two trainers would expect to be the underdogs in many races.
Below that and we are into very cheap ones and a number that attracted
'No Bid' at the sales. With the depressed Yearling Sales market in 2009
a number of these cheap ones may well prove to be capable of winning and
even some of the 'No Bids' might be usable.
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If we think of the Southwell maidens the four
horses that finished clear cost 40,000gns, £16,000, €17,000
& €10,000. We might well have a race today without even the chance
of a better type which might take an OR50s performance to win and be a
'Seller' in effect. Last year's equivalent race was won by a filly that
cost £500 from a placed horses that cost 3,500 & 3,000gns. The
fourth home won a Claimer at best and those behind were worse. We never
saw the winner again and the second won a Nursery off OR72 and is currently
rated 68/64. The third looked very uncomfortable on the rolling 'Ridge
& Furrow' parts of the Folkestone straight. He went on to win a Novice
race and manage to place in the Group 2 "Flying Childers". How can that
happen? Discuss. To encapsulate that this years bunch look limited and
if you could assess one as being able to run to OR70 they would probably
win so a Paddock tester.
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The ground is due to have 'Heavy' in it so
another staying test rather than a speed test with the race perhaps taking
5-7 seconds longer than a firm ground burn up. The stands' rail in traditionally
the best place to be but on softer going with mixed ability juveniles you
suspect the capacity to handle the going and a full 5f will count for more.
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Let us start with Shafgaan and the
latest runner for Clive Brittain after 5 previous ones for Mr. Manana.
Imagine we are the owner and we have been told by the trainer he has a
lovely group of 2yos and things are going so well he is going to unleash
some early. Terrific, you think and go back to whatever the 'Day Job' is.
Pondering what else to do with the $40+ Billion Dollars the Emirate of
Dubai has spent of other people's money without a good plan to pay it back,
perhaps. While you can congratulate the Maktoum's on the deep-field vision
of projects like Meydan Racecourse, and whatever that huge skyscraper is
called, what couldn't any of us achieve with $40 Billion to throw at it.
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Anyway, it is Wednesday evening and you phone
'Project Manager' Brittain to discuss how things are going. The pair that
ran in the Brocklesby got to the Parade Ring late and you were fined for
it. Diplomasi did an impression of a live fish on the floor of a boat through
the race and Mayhab was anonymous in midfield and might be ok. Jibouti
also floundered around at Kempton off the back. Both of the runners at
Southwell displayed too much immaturity and fizziness and also did not
look like they knew what was required. Merjaan was lost behind the Garbage
Gap as was Mishtaaq who had tried to rear over in the preliminaries and
unseated Jockey Catlin (Picture).
B2yoR would take some convincing this 'Project' was under control and that
perhaps a bit of restructuring might be in order.
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Another baffling thing is that despite the
blatantly visible nature of all this nonsense the SPs, in order, have been
11/1 (backed from 14/1), 6/1, 7/2, 5/2 and 5/1. What are the Market formers
watching? Debut winners for the trainer, nearly all juvenile successes
often, come along with Listed+ quality horses and usually from May. Somewhere
in this string of duds a FTO winner will pop up and we shall know it is
strong ability showing through. But with SPs like we have seen a Pundit
saying "the Market should guide..." is blowing smoke up your, well
anyway.
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So, could Shafgaan be the surprise? He is
by top sire Oasis Dream out of a mare who has produced four competitive
2yos of varying ability including one who won at Listed level. He is drawn
next to the rail and appears to be in a poor race. On that summation he
really ought to be able to get involved. But what price would you want
to get to make sitting through the 'landed live fish' routine bearable?
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Mick Channon runs two and both bred by his
Norman Court Stud concern and by sire Imperial Dancer who raced for Channon
(making a 5f debut at 2yo in the equivalent to next Monday's Warwick event
and having a long career including a 10f Group win). Channon's Stud has
housed a number of minor sires who like Hunting Lion & Fraam and also
(from memory) Piccolo until his success moved him on. Calormen is
out of a Hunting Lion mare than raced for Channon and won a 5f seller at
2yo. Imperial Waltzer was bred by Channon associate Peter Taplin
and is the fourth runner from the mare and the others have all run as 2yos
for Channon. All three of the siblings have ended up in sellers or claimers.
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Channon is up to normal speed with his debuts
and they are finishing in the 2nd to 6th range mostly without winning which
is typical for a notable 'Peak STO' trainer. Both of his declared
runners here are entered for the seller at Warwick on Monday which does
not suggest either is the surprise OR70+ type we are looking for. Where
they finish in the 2nd to 6th range should tell us how good they are but
a win for either would need this to be a really empty race or the seller
entry for one of them to be a bit of misdirection (imagine that).
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David Evans runs the filly Molly Mylenis
and, as noted, she is actually expensive kit by the standards of this race.
The trainer's last three debuts have finished 2nd, 3rd & 2nd and the
last of those would have won most races but finished second to a Course
Record breaker. The pedigree is ok on the dam's side but sire Needwood
Blade is another of those Pivotal line who seems not to get really precocious
2yos. But, out of this dam for Evans may be a special case. So, a strong
profile in this context.
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You would expect there to be a 'Punt' of some
sort on the Andy Haynes trained Novabridge with Jamie Spencer riding.
The trainer does get the occasional FTO winner without being really convincing.
This one attracted 'No Bid' at the sales but is by a solid sire and related
to minor 5f winners. The testing ground might assist Spencer's style in
a way a fast ground 58 second blast would not allow. So, should contract
in the Market and have the TV people shouting about a 'Punt' but one B2yoR
would let go by.
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Tigelise does not have a 'fast' pedigree
and even a slow 5f here may well prove less than ideal. Bill Turner starts
most things over 5f and a non-5f pedigree often indicates a small one.
A soft race but difficult to see this being a FTO winner for him despite
the readiness. Danehill Deb & Terrys Flutter both run
for trainers with little 2yo record and do not appeal. Babich Bay
is another 'No Bid' out of a stout dam and the trainer has not shown he
can get debut winners.
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Which leaves us with Helen Of Troy
and a brief ponder over whether Brendan Powell knows what he is doing.
He has been running 2yos since 2001, at least, and finally managed
a Turf season winner last year. That is a total of 34 individual horses
and Fallon managed to wrestle one over the line in front for the solitary
success. A number of those 2yos have shown hints of ability but then it
disappears next runs and pops up later when you had forgotten about it.
Lucky Punt got a Paddock Review rating of 79 one year and ended the season
on OR60. But, as a 4yo he ran at Southwell yesterday off OR90 (a bit inflated)
so why the problems? The earliest runners each year tend to be the ones
who show flashes of promise so this one might be ok at a low level. But
wins are rare so more one to assess for 'sometime.
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In summary, not a race shape that B2yoR likes
as you might have gathered. No 'Trump Card' of better types like at Southwell
and the feeling this might be a race where everything is the wrong side
of the Garbage Gap. Which means a low level performance to win. Shafgaan
really ought to be the possible better one but cannot really support a
Brittain horse at present. The Channon horses should run presentably but
are vulnerable to a minor lurker. Novabridge and Spencer are a probable
Punt so moderate value and supporting Jamie to get things done on a 2yo
will make you prematurely old. Of the others Tigelise has some prospects
to be a FTO winner but a pass which means Molly Mylenis looks the most
solid prospect to place and perhaps win.
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