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A brief preview for the Warwick Seller.
Whether the meeting goes ahead is subject to an 8:00am inspection on Monday
morning with parts of the course waterlogged on the day before following
a rainy week. The ground will be some form of 'Heavy' meaning that the
turf races run so far will all have been slow races and 'staying' tests
run in 5-6 seconds longer than a fast ground edition. The seller is typical
in that it has 7 fillies taking on a single male who has to give the rest
of the field 5lbs.
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A core of 'Regulars' amongst the trainers
represented and the following bullet points summarise their recent records
in the race:-
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David Evans - 2005 won with FTO Wizby,
3rd in 2006, 2nd in 2007 & 3rd in 2008. Won in 2009 with FTO Transfixed.
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Bill Turner - 8th in 2005, 2nd &
7th in 2006, 4th in 2007 & 2nd in 2008. 8th in 2009 with Secret Rose
on STO having run at Lingfield on debut.
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Mick Channon - 2nd in 2005 with FTO
Garlogs (home bred by Hunting Lion), 6th in 2006 (home bred - Hunting Lion),
4th in 2008 with another home bred (Imperial Dancer). 3rd in 2009 with
STO filly Vaduz (home bred by Imperial Dancer).
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A Top Level summary would be that there are
two possible sources for the winner. The first would be one of the STO
runners improving from their debut and winning, partly, because of superior
race experience. The other is a FTO win from a source that has this sort
of winner. The six 2yo races to date have been split as 3 for Richard Fahey
and 1 each for Richard Hannon, Andy Haynes and Gay Kelleway. Mr Fahey has
a good overall record with 5-6f debut wins so no surprise at that level
although the number of early season 'naturals' he has produced seems a
change. Richard Hannon has produced a typical early season debut winner
in a Kempton race he has won before with a useful newcomer. Mr Haynes (a
former tenant of Hannon's stables) has had early season FTO winners before
including having won this Warwick seller, for example. So the only 'surprise'
FTO winner has been Miss Kelleway and her first runner in 2008 & 09
showed up well in strong open maidens before winning a fillies' Auction
race STO. Her debut success this year was in a fillies' Auction race and
probably performing to a similar FTO level to her previous early runners.
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So, Question 1 is "Do the pair on Second
runs look likely improvers?". A short answer would be that neither
showed enough FTO to make them look solid prospects. As the record for
Mick Channon above will tell you Imperial Waltzer is an owner bred
of a typical type he runs in the race. Presumably a big part of this is
to try to get an early winner for 'his' sire. The STO filly who finished
3rd last year had run a solid debut and still could not win. Channon junior
said before the Folkestone race that Imperial Waltzer was the backward
one of the stable's pair that would need the run. He showed signs of being
mentally green but faded very tamely quite early on heavy and recorded
a bad rating. An unappealing prospect.
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Bill Turner has gone close in weaker editions
of this race but has often run more complete garbage here. Last year's
filly had run in the same Lingfield event as Crazy In Love. She
got to the lead early from an inside draw at Lingfield but being plain
too slow seemed the only reason for her getting shuffled back downhill.
She then faded early in the straight. This slower race may be more
suitable but if she cannot finish a race off at downhill Lingfield on Polytrack
you need some faith to see her staying here. Anyway, too slow often goes
with small and underpowered and the move to Heavy just examines the 'power'
reserves even more.
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Which means that the first option of a STO
winner looks a low probability. How many of the 6 newcomers represent trainers
who have some sort of FTO winner record? Peter Grayson is an obvious 'No'
so Hannah Chan is dismissed. Roger Curtis has no debut 2yo win record
although always worth bearing in mind Paul Blockley in the background 'somewhere'.
But Fit For Purpose has a non-5f pedigree to add to the doubts.
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Which leaves us with the three FTO
runners for David Evans and one for Kevin Ryan. Evans has won the equivalent
race with a newcomer in 2 of the last 5 years and has had placed runners
in the other three editions. We know he can get early FTO wins. The filly
Transfixed won the race last year and she has now racked up a career total
of 41 outings for 6 wins and £45,000 worth of earnings. Welcome
to Mr Evans' world. On pedigree, sales prices and jockeys you would expect
Littleportnbrandy to be the first string and prospective 'Transfixed'.
She is by sire Camacho who has already produced two of the six juvenile
winners so far out of a mare who has produced an Italian 2yo winner of
three races. Given that background she just comes out on top in the Profile.
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The other pair for Mr Evans are similar in
that they have relatively 'cheaper' backgrounds and both are out of stout
dames who have not produced anything in 2yo terms. Given a weak race they
might hang around for a long time but not easy to see either actually winning.
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The final runner is Copex for Kevin
Ryan. He does get FTO winners but rarely this early in the year. His two
runners to date have been uncompetitive. If you go looking for negatives
you could add in the trainer's 1 from 7 record with debut runners in sellers.
Equally, you could build a case for this being a 'Special Case'. The dam
has already produced an April debut winner and that was for Mr Ryan in
2007. Copex is the most expensive in the field and by a solid sire who
gets 5f winners in April. Ryan had a targeted early runner for an owner
of this type in 2009 and Out The Ring managed a solid second on debut behind
Star Rover. You presume that a runner for owner Mr Koukash this early,
given he has a string of 2yos, is a pragmatic decision over a poorer type
to try to get a win and get rid if needs be. But, might be an OR61 type
even if they think he is 'poor' which might well still be better than anything
else here. Which means Copex sits just behind Littleportnbrandy in the
Profile.
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In Summary, there are another 1,050 races
to go in the juvenile Turf season so how much do you need to press in this
sort of event with the competitors wearing flippers and snorkels. Neither
of the STO pair did enough FTO to want to support them. Evans is the obvious
source of a strong debut and Littleportnbrandy seems the best. Copex has
some 'record' to back up her bid but less complete than an Evans 2yo. No
'lurker' apparent with hints of possibilities like a Primo Lady or Novabridge.
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