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The first test of how the form of some of
the early races will match up in the maiden at Ffos Las. The Brocklesby
is represented by the runner-up Lady Brookie who was staying on
well at the end of that race on softer turf. She had broken well from a
wide draw and worked across to the Centre-Stands' side strip and going
comfortably in 3rd through halfway. The colts Chiswick Bey & Squires
Gate both showed better ability to quicken as the efforts were made two
furlongs from home. But, Lady Brookie was able to keep close in third and
saw the race out better than that pair and would have won in another 50
yards. She was very professional in that race so has little improvement
left on that account. The race was run in a slow time given the testing
conditions and the going here should be a bit quicker.
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Traditionally the 'Front' of the Brocklesby
produces horses capable of winning open maidens so long as they use their
early season advantage. The first four home this year looked to be that
'Front' this year and Lady Brookie had the pace to travel comfortably through
the race and finished it off strongly. She is probably not much above the
OR75 benchmark for an Open Maiden type but a strong prospect for this race.
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Beach Patrol appeared to be the second
string on SPs to the stable's Mister Macho in his debut at Kempton behind
Takeaway. Despite the fact that he looked like he did not know what was
required at various stages through the race he ran a solid first effort.
He responded to the early driving to progress to the lead and cut across
to the rail. On the sharp right hand bend he got unbalanced but kept on
well enough to retain the lead. He still looked a bit clueless in the straight
and while Takeaway responded when asked for a finishing effort he seemed
to take time to grasp the requirement. The jockey went easy on him in the
final furlong and he kept on for a clear second.
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That race was run in a slow time and OR50s
nursery races will be run faster times before the season ends to put the
performance into context. The winner looked a solid Hannon stable FTO winner
without being a 'Monsieur Chevalier'. More of a 'Cornus' if you can remember
that far back. Hannon debut winners are not wound up and often run to OR50s
& 60s levels. But, they will improve a lot so starting at that level
means you have an OR80+ type at least.
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The rest of that race looked suspect with
a cheap filly in third and some moderate profile types closing on the placed
horses. A lesser performance than the Brocklesby front rank. So what type
is Beach Patrol and how far might he go? On profile he seemed likely to
be an OR65 to 74 range horse and one we shall see running a lot at 2yo
given his connections. His SP and performance on the day suggested he barely
ran into the OR50s but Channon is another trainer whose 2yos do improve
from debut. The visible inexperience he showed means he can improve simply
on that and he appeared a quick learner.
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On profile, Lady Brookie comes out 2-3 lengths
ahead of Beach Patrol before taking into account the 3lbs apprentice allowance
if you want to. An interesting point to think about in general is the draw
on the straight course at Ffos Las. Since it only opened in 2009 we are
still learning but there were hints last year with the 2yo events that
higher draws, i.e. close to the Stands' rail, might be an advantage. Although
2yo maiden races with spread abilities are not affected by the draw in
the same way as a tight-knit older horse handicap it can matter if the
horses are matched. For example, Beach Patrol has proved he can get out
and lead and is drawn one off the rail with a weak profile horse next inside
him. Lady Brookie is further out so you could imagine the race forming
up with Beach Patrol on the rail and Lady Brookie working over to, probably,
track him. That might confer some advantage but seems unlikely to close
a 2-3 length differential unless the filly hits some trouble. Whether she
is plain fast enough might be more of an issue if the ground dries up.
But she should be seeing the race out strongly.
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Working down the scale the race that Scarlet
Rocks ran in was also run in a slow time for Lingfield and slower than
the equivalent race in 2009. That version say OR70-72 types at the front
and placed horses and soon tailing off to OR60 types and worse. Scarlet
Rocks was beaten around 2 lengths taking weights into account and was fading
late on. If she could not see 5f out off a slow time at downhill Lingfield
it is difficult to see her finishing strongly here. A lesser type and perhaps
not staying and you would expect her not to place. She ran for a 'Ready
FTO' trainer on debut and was the second string. Nothing in her Profile
to think she can compete with the other two.
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Worth making a short digression to think about
that Lingfield race and make a point about Ratings. Let us imagine that
the winner - Primo Lady - does not exist and that the fading Scarlet Rocks
scrambled home for a win. She then picks up a minor injury which keeps
her off the track until August. She is entered for a Nursery and gets OR71
to run off. Remember, the time she ran would not win a Nursery off
OR51 in later season and here she is with a 20 point higher rating. The
BHA handicapper does not rate races in this example for the form that was
actually displayed. He chooses a typical level and puts the horse on that
as a 'best guess'. If Scarlet Rocks has grown & strengthened during
the interim then she may be able to compete off OR71. If she was the light
framed whippet that David Evans has a lot of that do not grow then she
needs to be OR50 to be competitive and it will take her a lot of runs to
get down from OR71. About 3-4 weeks at an Evans schedule of outings. Months
for most trainers.
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Scarlet Rocks had not been Paddock Reviewed
but seems unlikely to be up to the ability of the other two in an open
maiden. She did race prominently and is between Lady Brookie & Beach
Patrol so interesting to see how her involvement makes Lady Brookie's job
more difficult. Ivan's A Star was 7th though halfway behind Beach
Patrol on his debut and finished 7th. Making some ground at the end as
the front of the race stalled. He should be more competent here and get
into the first 4, at some point, from his draw but without the ability to compete to win
& place.
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The six newcomers split into four who come
out low on the profile and seem unlikely to have much impact in the race
nor long-term and the two David Evans FTOs. Rosina Grey is the first
runner of the season for Rod Millman. Going back to 2005, when B2yoR started,
he was the 'Story' of the start of the season with Mr Millman winning 6-7
of the first 10 races along with a lot of FTO wins. His record with juveniles
since then has declined and his last FTO win was in 2006. Looking back
to 2009 his first four runners were a mix of his only two season winners
and a couple of small and limited ones who did not win. This one's dam
was a small filly that won three 5f races as a 2yo by May for Nerys Dutfield
(Millman's landlord in the intertwined story of British racing) and was
then retired. She has produced three useless 2yos and this one cost £900
to retain. On balance, another small one trying her luck for a trainer
who seems to have changed his recruitment set-up.
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Ron Harris does not have a record with 2yos
and has made his name with older sprinters. His pair of runners here are
a filly - Belle Bayardo - that cost €3,000 as a yearling and
Snapshott who cost only £8,000 as a 2yo at the recent breeze-up
sale at Kempton. That means he has only been in the Harris yard for less
than a month. The odd cheap 2yo buy will win as a juvenile but this one
does not have a full 5f pedigree although clearly should be well forward
given his background. Wins for Harris are rare and he has never had a debut
runner even place. No clues as to a 'Lurker' so both should be dismissable.
Roger Curtis runs another cheap one with Babich Bay who was
a non-runner with 'Sore Shins' last Thursday. The trainer has no 2yo record
and not really a full 5f pedigree.
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Which means we have a solid front of the race
Profile. The way the race between Lady Brookie, Beach Patrol & Scarlet
Rocks will give a lot of information about whether the model of the quality
of their previous races and types matches up. We then have a lot of weak
profiles that should not get involved and contain no 'Clues' hinting at
possible surprises. The final place to check is the Evans newcomers with
Dingle View (Gannon riding) & Bathwick Bear (Fortune).
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This pair both cost around €21,000 and
have pedigrees that could produce an OR70 winners. Dingle View is a full
sister to Vhujon who produced a startling debut win for Evans on April
11th in his 2yo year when tearing up the Bath hill on Firm going for a
clear win. That sort of debut would definitely have beaten Beach Patrol
and would probably have dragged Lady Brookie beyond what she could cope
with, certainly on firmer going. Dingle View is drawn wide and unlikely
to be another Vhujon but the fact that Probert rides Scarlet Rocks and
Gannon & Fortune the other two suggests that they are both better prospects
overall than. Dingle View getting to 3rd would be no surprise.
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Bathwick Bear was entered for the Brocklesby,
where Evans appeared to run two limited types, and the fact he is on the
racecourse a good sign. His dam has struggled to produce runners but the
two she has got have both won as 2yos with Folio rating OR90+. Both placed
on debut at long SPs and competed well. This one is by new sire Kodiac
who might get early sprinters on pedigree. Drawn closer to the rail than
Dingle View and an interesting Profile for Fortune to bully along.
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In summary, Lady Brookie's professional debut
and strong finish on softer turf suggest she is a proper favourite here.
Beach Patrol has to give weight and is probably a slighter lesser type.
Interesting to see how much he has learned after a debut where he was clinging
on to the 'idea' of what was required but kept finding enough of the answers,
on-the-fly, without cracking. A solid opponent to test Lady Brookie if
he blasts off up the rail and sticks at it.
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The others with experience plus most of the
newcomers do not appeal as open maiden winners and perhaps not 'winners'
of any type. More interest in the Evans newcomers to provide a surprise
placer. For anyone with the memory of Vhujon streaking away on debut the
thought crosses your mind his sister must be some good. But, the niggle
comes back and says that Bathwick Bear may be closer to being a 'Lurker'
if there is one.
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