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Another race due to be run on Soft ground,
at best, and the wet Conditions at Nottingham yesterday contributed mightily
to a surprise result. A feeling that you have not quite got a handle on
the ranking of the Evans' juveniles seems quite reasonable after that Novice
race. Evans provided three of the runners with 25/1 shot Little Libretto
(ridden by Gannon in the Brocklesby but not there) having drifted from
16/1. Style And Panache was Spencer ridden and supported from 11/10 to
8/11 and finished third. Bajan Bullet (whom Gannon was on this time) finished
second in a race where non of the runners changed position from an early
stage. Which means that the wet conditions has Evans a little baffled as
well. The result for the Nottingham race will have some text added which
considers the upside-down finishing positions.
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Understanding the Evans 2yos is important
because he has won the last two races with and provided 3 of the 4 placed
horses plus a 4th in those events. He provides three of the nine runners
for Leicester and we should be thankful for anyone who is running their
juveniles at all on heavy turf. This maiden had a strong looking entry
including both Barry Hills' Brocklesby runners and a Fahey 2yo. While still
an interesting race we have been left with 6 second time out runners who
did not produce strong debuts and three, thinnish Profile, on debut. Tomorrow's
event at Musselburgh has just three runners with two for Richard Fahey.
Let us get past the 'Grand National' and hope it dries up and things improve.
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Let us start with the Folkestone maiden race
which saw Calormen finish second and Molly Mylenis (Gannon
there and here) third. That looked a weak race on Profile and resulted
in a clear win for Novabridge. It was a long way back to Calormen who had
been given a quiet time by Jockey Fallon as if 'Today' was in the future.
He got outpaced comfortably by the winner plus the, moderate looking, Shafgaan
inside two furlongs out and plugged on to an unthreatening 2nd. That was
in a slow time on Heavy going. He was entered for the Seller at Warwick
on Monday which got abandoned but was not declared. Did Fallon suggest
to the trainer he was worth a go in a maiden, or two? Before going back
to the lower class race idea if necessary? Whatever, he achieved nothing
much FTO but a '2' next to his name and Fallon he is going to be a poor
value prospect. Time to look around.
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Molly Mylenis was supported in that Folkestone
race as if she might be usable. She looked pretty small but Little Libretto
showed yesterday what a, hard-fit, small trier can achieve in early season.
But, she looked mentally overawed by the experience and froze as the stall
gates clanged open. She needed to be driven along at times during the race
and never going forward. She plugged on late for a remote third, also achieving
nothing worthwhile in ratings terms, indicating she was mentally not going
forward rather than being tired. But, do you really want to support a little
one who did not look a full trier on debut, as Little Libretto had, and
seemed to not look happy on wet going?
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Unknown Rebel looked clueless on the
Polytrack on debut and was adrift of the back of the field in last through
halfway. Never really got into the side-on picture at all. That race had
produced four later runners, three on turf, with four moderate efforts
including a volunteer third for Ivan's A Star which looked of pretty suspect
value. Kevin Ryan is a solid trainer and these early types tend to peak
STO but a horse with this profile going to soft turf would need some 'external'
information from the Formbook stream to support. Looking like Godzilla's
Big Brother in the Paddock Review perhaps (and having webbed hooves). Sailor
Boy looked a usable type in Paddock Review at Southwell but was too
inexperienced to compete in a faster race. Not one to give up on and see
how he shapes here. Mayfair Princess has a poor profile and seems
an unlikely strong debut.
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With which we should go back to Mr Evans and
think about the Brocklesby and The Best Mode and also James Given's
Sky Diamond. The Best Mode appeared the Evans first string in the
Doncaster event at 12/1 to Little Libretto's 66/1. He could not get involved
early and was notably outpaced as the efforts went at 2 furlongs out. He
looked smaller than Little Libretto and you wondered why Evans had not
run something better in the race. We now know that Bathwick Bear is his
fastest 2yo and probably missed the Brocklesby, which he was entered for,
because the trainer wanted to run him on faster going. The Best Mode has
Spencer on here which means he is either the first or second string although
that might not mean much actual ability difference. [If you are sitting
there wondering why Little Libretto is not being talked up as an OR85+
type having converted a Brocklesby 5th into a Class 4 Novice success
then try looking up Calypso Girl's career path on the 'Racing Post' website.
That is probably what she is and where she is going. Oh, and if a Pundit
is telling you the Brocklesby is 'working out well' because of her
then consider kicking them in nether regions and ask them to think a bit
harder about it.]
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Now, anyone who has done some homework and
read the Brocklesby Paddock notes will have known where this Preview has
been heading since the start. Suspect pair from Folkestone who might win
but are unappealing prospects and poor value. Lots of others who have run
poorly FTO and showed nothing to make them look obvious improvers. Some,
known, insubstantial physical types as well. Sailor Boy of some interest
but hard to think he will improve enough for the day. Zarazar has
a moderate pedigree and looks the third string. Where else to look for
an interest at some value?
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Sky Diamond was one of the best physical
types in the Brocklesby field and ran for a trainer who chooses competitive
sprint 2yos to run early. The large 'But' came in viewing his mental state
because he was clearly a wilful, masculine character and this had spilled
over into being wild and unfocussed on the day. Unseated the jockey twice
in the Parade Ring and got loose but never quite 'Lost It'. Given all that
a surprise he raced at all and got involved early before losing concentration
and losing ground. Never faded though and plugged on at the finish. Poor
form but a type to follow and hope that he is at a value price next time.
See how he is in the preliminaries and how he compares tot he unknown ones
but expect to be taking a punt at it.
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Only one other horse to consider in Bryn Palling's
Mollyow and she is a minor 'Lurker'. Mr Palling prepares his horses
well for debut and they would be in the top five trainers for fitness FTO.
They usually know enough of what is required and often race prominently.
His last two runners in the equivalent Leicester even have finished 3rd
of 8 (12/1 in a weak field for a poor filly that never placed again) and
4th of 9 last year at 11/1. That 4th was in a very tough edition of the
race and the three in front of him were Archers Road, here Now And Why
and Jack My Boy who won a total of 7 races between them in the season.
The five horses behind him included four later winners and we can presume
he would have won something if he ever run again.
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Which means that as an early runner for Palling
then Mollyow is either a competitive 2yo or a really small one getting
going. If she is small she will be tight fit for the day and compete to
place in weak editions of the race. Her two siblings both won as 2yos and
she cost enough as a yearling to suggest she is not the 'tiny' type. She
is by the new sire Iceman who has had three runners so far and all have
run poorly and had their inexperience noted in VT review. They were two
runners for Clive Brittain and one for an NH trainer having his first 2yo
runner. You would expect a FO for this trainer to be a different prospect.
Overall, not one to dismiss and a lone priced place not much of a surprise.
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One final point would be the draw with the
stalls on the Stands' rail. That rail in the last 2 furlongs was a big
advantage in many instances last year although fields tend to spread out
a run centre track at the course. Difficult to know how this field will
approach it but the weaker profiles are near the rail and the stronger
ones drawn wide. Perhaps Mollyow might belt up the rail if she is knowing
enough.
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In summary, following placed form from weak
races where the runners never got involved is a poor strategy long-term.
This is a weak race lacking strong Profiles but preference looking for
some value elsewhere. If you like to follow positive Paddock Reviews as
a method to try to find an edge at longer odds then Sky Diamond is a solid
alternative if he has calmed down. Mollyow worth checking as a usable type
and how ready she is. Another chance to look at the Evans stable to get
a better grip on how good the ones we have seen are and how the jockeys
aboard might indicate which are thought to be the better ones.
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