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Race 11 of the season and already two others
have been abandoned. Most of the turf races have been on softer going and
the last two have produced 25/1 & 40/1 winners. The first of those
was caused by really wet going which made making forward moves difficult.
The second of those down to a smaller stable not being taking seriously
by the market and not appearing to back their own, specially set-up, strong
debut attempt. Yesterday's Musselburgh race was a farcical three runner
event which would have been easier to hold on Richard Fahey's gallops and
invite over Paul Midgley's filly for the afternoon. That was on subtly
better going but the time would not have told you that and a worthless
bit of form that told us a limited amount about the three horses. The mix
of wet turf and AW races so far have not really allowed any form franking
to take place to confirm form lines.
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The ten races run so far have produced 6 wins
for the front runner. None of the horses second at halfway have won and
the other four wins have been by a runner in the 3rd to 5th range between
1.5 to 2.5 lengths off the lead at halfway. Remember that this sort of
split is typical and, even with wet going, deep closers do not figure much.
The 'hole' that shows up with no winners from those second at halfway is
often the case. If we look at a sample of 50 races around Wolverhampton's
tight bend over 5f how many do you think went to the horse in second at
halfway? The answer is just one. The second horse is usually in
'Lane 1' outside the rail runner and trying to keep up with a horse
running a shorter distance. This seems to break them. To make a similar
point how many of the juvenile races at Chester in 2009 went to the horse
running the rail? 15 out of 18 and the exceptions required a superior horse
or a frantic pace to overcome the disadvantage. If you were giving instructions
to your jockey there you would say that if they had the choice between
dropping in behind on the rail or pressing forward one Lane, or more, wide
then please 'Drop in'.
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In these 2yo events the horse in second is
often trying to keep with a horse better than they are being and dragged along
too quickly for their ability, even on a straight course. If the leader
fades then those settled in second rank are the best place to look for
the winners and not the other runner(s) in front rank. A big part of this
with inexperienced 2yos is that they sort themselves out into competitive
ones, knowing enough and handling the conditions efficiently, at the front,
and the rest pretty quickly.
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With which let us turn to the Lingfield
Auction race and note that this is a tough technical test for 2yos.
They race out of chute on the wrong side of the track and then join it
on a left hand bend just before the course goes sharply downhill. Many
will never have galloped downhill before and probably none to a sharp bend
just after 2 furlongs from home. The previous 5f race this year at the
course was won by the 5th at halfway (2.5L off the lead) from the first
two at halfway who both faded in the final half furlong. The first 10 races
over the trip for 2yos in 2009 were all won by one of the first 4 at halfway
including three frontrunners. None were further than 2.5L off the leader
at halfway. If the horse you have backed in today's race gets shuffled
back into the second half of the field to the junction after 1 furlong
probably time to start looking to convert your 'position' in-running.
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This is another Class 6 race with the horses
carrying different weight depending upon how much they cost at the sales.
This looks a 'Cheap' field with the most expensive costing only £8,000
and only 3 of the 10 carrying more than the minimum weight for their sex.
Two are penalised 2lbs and one 4lbs. Last year's race featured 4 horses
out of just seven runners who were more expensive than any in this group.
The winner cost a whopping 40,000 guineas and carried a big weight. Either
the depressed yearling sales Market in 2009 meant some good types were
'cheap' of this field may not be much good. Or perhaps there will
be some pleasant surprises and a bit more substantial physically than their
prices suggest.
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Now, the bias towards prominent racers is
part of the reason why second time out horses have some advantage. Having
been through the process of of going down to the start and then bullied
and belted if they do not get on with it as the gates clang open will instruct
their learning. And horses can be quick learners. There are three runners
on STO here and it is quite common for them to make up he front rank early.
This then sets the benchmark which the newcomers will have to be better
than to win. What to make of the STO trio here?
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Well, Sir Lunchalott looked an ok size,
if narrow and underpowered, in the Brocklesby prelims. But, he looked very
slow in the race. Seemed to get outpaced early on and was last through
halfway. Some late headway but into a stalled group. Very hard to believe
he will be quick enough here and Stall 2 can be a disadvantage if you you
do not have the basic pace to use it. Crazy In Love is one of three
runners who were declared for the Warwick Seller last Monday which got
abandoned. She led early in the previous 5f race at the course. But, she
appeared plain too slow to hold that lead and was 4th at halfway and ended
up 6th. Drawn 7 she will have to work harder to get front rank but she
seems just too underpowered to hold off anything with a bit more oomph
even if she gets to the lead comfortably. Tessa was 6th behind Crazy
In Love in that race at halfway but had a small excuse of having been shuffled
back in some bunching after 1 furlong. She faded to last in the straight
and runs for a 'negative' trainer. So another than should go better STO
but tricky from stall 9 and difficult to believe she will be good enough
anyway.
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Which means we have a thin looking bunch of
STOs and if one won it would be a bit of a surprise. It would require the
newcomers to not contain a slightly more substantial type for their price
or for the Ok one to meet some trouble in the race. The races to date have
taught us that the FTO winners often come from the 'Usual Sources' and
if not 'Usual' then from trainers who have hinted at being able to get
horses ready for solid debut runs in early season. Can we discount any
of the newcomers on that basis? The Peter Grayson second runner is Hannah
Cann and another who missed out on the Warwick seller. Poor trainer
record and no evidence of strong debuts.
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Jean-Rene Auvray is another stable with no
record with 2yos. 13 individual runners since the start of 2002 and no
winner and never had a placed debut. Which means Stacey is another
to say 'Goodbye' to. Roger Curtis is another with little 2yo record although
he had more runners in 2008 and his first winner. This was caused by his
stable absorbing the horses from the, disqualified trainer, Paul Blockley's
yard which adjoins his property. The lengthy story of how Mr Blockley is
now a 'Chastened Man' and how his wife now works for Mr Curtis and Mr Blockley
does a bit of mucking out is available to read on the 'Stewards Enquiries'
section of the BHA website. It's a hoot. Mr Curtis has no 2yo debut record
but Mr Blockley did have so you have to be a bit wary. However, there was
a little money for the stable's first 2yo runner of the year - Babich Bay
- at Ffos Las and it ran poorly so Fit For Purpose seems one to
let go unless the Paddock Review show something unusually good.
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So, unless you want to believe in Sir Lunchalott
suddenly finding a burst of pace the race comes down to a choice of a presentable
newcomer out of Shewalksinbeauty (don't we bloody, all....), Stunning
In Purple (aren't we bloody all, .) & Mini Bon Bon. Which
is the task the Paddock Reviewer will be primarily be asked to report on.
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The first of those represents Richard Hannon
and you should know the set-up. He does get FTO winners at this time of
the year but usually Listed+ types but with the odd accidental win. On
the evidence so far the debut win by Takeaway in the second race of the
year was an accidental win by an Ok one in a weak race. SWIB only cost
£8,000 but that still makes her the priciest. The second runner for
new sire Byron and the first one for him ran ok. The dam is old and her
record has got worse and the fact this one runs at all as a 2yo is an improvement.
He runs for 'Lucky Owner' Julie Wood who has the George Washington filly
with the trainer and has more winners than losers with the stable. But,
another better class one? and Draw 1 can be tricky and needs you to be
quick away to hold your position at the 1F junction. In general on the
all-weather 'Rails are sticky and will kill you'. A good candidate
for knowing your fate early if you bet on her. If she slots in second rank
after 1F going comfortably you can count your winnings because it will
show she has the basic ability and will pick up in the straight. If she
blows it and is 3L+ back then she wont win and if she is any good her effort
will get her placed. Overall, moderate long-term value supporting Hannon
horses because the name means they are overbet.
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Stunning In Purple represents Andy Haynes
who had a debut winner with Novabridge this year and has had FTO successes
before. A moderate profile and unlikely to be a bigger one like Novabridge.
An ok draw if she can use it and just an average profile in context. Possible
winner but nothing to grab your interest.
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And finally, a horse that does grab a bit
of interest with Mini Bon Bon. A solid pedigree for this field and a reasonable
price at 3,000 guineas so enough to believe she might be usable. In general
B2yoR does not like horses named 'Little' and 'Mini' and the like because
you suspect they are going to be ponies before you have seen them. But
Little Libretto has proved what a small trier can achieve in early season
and Midget won a seller FTO last year so have to be a little forgiving.
The real interest comes with the record of trainer Alan Bailey.
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Now, over the winter one of the features on
the AW has been how Mr Bailey has improved some old-timers. Imprimis Tagula
& Autumn Blades have been around forever but both improved in his care
to win a string of races and end up rate in the OR90s having never looked
anything like that class before. Autumn Blades had always looked a shirker
with his head up posture and crab drifting in the straight. None of that
changed but he had turned into a tiger anyway. Over the last couple of
seasons the B2yoR view on the Bailey 2yos has improved hen previously his
handling had seemed a little variable in control.
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He seems to have become a classic 'Front Loader'
who gets the usable 5-6f ones out first and they can compete well FTO.
In 2007 his only winner was Ballycroy Boy and he was second on debut at
8/1 in early April. In 2008 he ran two on the Warwick card in early April
with Fuaigh More winning the seller FTO and high class Aspen Darlin winning
the fillies' maiden that used to support it. That was 2 of is three season's
winners and the other started over 8.6f so was never going to be an early
starter. In 2009 his first runner was It's Alright who won on debut at
the Newmarket Craven meeting. And she was his only winner of the year.
Either he has changed things or Mini Bon Bon is a competitive one. If she
turns out to be smaller and useless then he either has not got a worthwhile
sprint 2yo or we should get very interested in his second runner.
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In summary, do not really fancy any of the
STO runners on what they have shown and 'something' in the newcomers should
be a bit better. Four of the newcomers come from stables without a record
of producing this sort of early FTO success. The three others are split
as a Hannon rep who will probably be little value, trainer, Ryan Moore
and all that. Nothing to get a handle on with Stunning In Purple but a
'Lurker' profile for Mini Bon Bon.
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