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An unusual field for the Newmarket Conditions
race which is often won by a runner with strong previous form. The exceptions
since 2001 have been in 2003 & 2007. In the first of those a David
Loder newcomer won having been 15 lengths off a suicidal pace set by Hannon's
Signor Panettiere ridden by 3lb Apprentice Ryan Moore. A shockingly bad
effort at judging pace and whatever happened to Moore? Did he survive the
bollocking? That Hannon runner had won on debut at Kempton and was typical
of the type Hannon often runs in the race with recent wins for Cornus (STO
after FTO win), Cool Creek (STO after placing in the same Kempton race
as Signor P.), Gilded (3TO after blowing the break in the Kempton race
& winning STO) & Monsieur Chevalier last year (after a FTO win
at Folkestone). To make the point about Hannon this is the race
Takeaway should be in rather than running at Nottingham if he were Listed+
class. Three of the four winners given above went on the Group Race wins
and Cornus placed at that level.
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In 2007 the field was more like this year's
with 5 newcomers, from similar trainers as today, taking on just one runner
with a previous run. That was a win in the Folkestone race for Stan Moore's
Nikindi who was not Group class. In that year late Listed winner Spirit
Of Sharjah won from Barry Hills' later Group win victor Dark Angel. Hannon
did not run anything in that race. Mr Hannon has not won the race with
a newcomer but he usually runs a useful type in it if they are on debut
here. In 2008 the later Listed winner Icesolator was unplaced on FTO and
before that useful winner Resignation was unplaced behind Gilded. Last
year was a knuckle ball with the poor runner Captain Cool backing up Monsieur
Chevalier. The Captain was bundling about in a claimer as a maiden two
days ago and rates around OR50. What was the Newmarket debut about?
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Without the strong 'Form' runners this sextet
set a tricky puzzle for the Profile. The race has produced a variety of
high class horses and you could add Art Connoisseur, Hearts Of Fire &
Ouqba to the list of recent runners who have gone on the Group race successes
as 2yos or 3yos, or both. Given that Hannon has started the season with
four debut wins we should perhaps begin with his pair. Let us put those
to one side for a moment to consider the one horse with a previous run
to see what sort of standard he might set.
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Julius Geezer made his debut for Tom
Dascombe in a maiden at the Curragh a week before the Brocklesby. That
was an €11,000 maiden and perhaps the reason for taking him there.
He started 4/1 joint favourite but ran disappointingly going along in second
rank but fading badly in the last furlong and a half to be 10th. As an
aside the winner of that race - High Award - seemed to run a remarkable
race given the state he was in before the race. His fizziness & sweating
would have had him off the list for the day and he won despite that. The
second Dascombe runner in the Brocklesby ran similarly being prominent
past halfway but faded notably later on. The trainer has not run anything
since and now has a batch of runners starting with this one. This looks
like a 'Return' after taking the decision to hold off with runners after
the two, poor, early, efforts. Perhaps a lack of preparation or a minor
health problem with the string.
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Mr Dascombe was the top story in terms of
FTO winners in 2009 so the fading told you something was not the same early.
He ran Soccer to place second in this race last year after an early season
win. Julius Geezer is an equivalent type you would think but without the
competent debut. The trainer has proved himself to be very good at preparing
horses and judging their ability. If this one is here and running after
a break you would think he will set a good standard.
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With which, back to Hannon and 'Hey'
give a man a break, Richard. B2yoR is stood here saying you only get rare
debut wins at certain times of the year and they are all winning. Still
in the right time of the year and it would certainly appear Mr Hannon is
likely to have his strongest string this year. The increase in runners
in 2009 went with a superior Strike Rate and looked to be because he had
more better quality horses. He said at the start of that year he had had
more money to spend and been able to purchase a better physical type. Given
the depressed yearling Market last year if he only had the same amount
of money to spend in 2009 this year's 2yos should be a better set again.
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He runs two newcomers here with Retainer
appearing
the first string over, the Moore ridden, Bilko Pak. Which means
he cannot carry on with the debut wins without a dead-heat. Since he has
not had a winner in the race with a newcomer that is a negative. The caveat
is that this is not the typical race where a newcomer would run into a
proven horse. On the other side at least one of this pair should be up
to Listed level, at least, and the other might really be anything giving
the Captain Cool googly. Retainer is by sire Acclamation and the Hannon's
have a solid record in getting early season winners with his progeny. The
dam has produced a variety of types but one was Bunditten who won the first
2yo race of the year on March 20th in her year. She finished fourth in
an ordinary Queen Mary as the height of her career.
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Looking through the Acclamation winners at
2yo since he started the quality has not been top level despite the quantity.
He had two Listed level fillies in his first year (both with Hannon) who
did not progress and a Group 1 winner with Dark Angel. His top level (that
is 'Top' in the proper sense of the word rather than meaning a Listed race
upwards) success looked a laughably thin one and not a real Group 1 effort.
He was retired as a 2yo and the B2yoR view would be that was a sensible
decision because his 3yo career would have revealed the 'Group 1' tag as
silly.
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There was a bit of the "Nothing left to
prove..." defence when he was retired but this is just wrong. Any
horse, retired before it has run as a fully mature horse at 4yo has
not been required to prove itself at all levels. Fans of Sea The Stars
who tell you that he had "Nothing left to prove" because he had
won six Group 1s as a 3yo are trying to fool you, or perhaps themselves.
He was receiving weight from older horses when he met them and needed to
run as a 4yo off the full weight-for-age to really prove himself. Could
he have made that improvement? Probably, but he never proved it. His demeanour
on his last run suggested he was coming apart mentally despite the win.
Probably just because of a long-season and he would have been back, relaxed,
at 4yo but he did not prove it so the doubts remain. He had plenty to prove
as a mature horse.
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Anyway, the point is that looking at the pedigree
of Retainer the quality threshold looks solid Listed level rather than
the full Group 1 type. That would not win a normal edition of this race
as a Hannon newcomer and a little suspect in this. If you take the "Next
Race is what matters..." and "A winner is a winner.." view of
racing then any Hannon newcomer at the present will interest you. B2yoR
will hang onto the longer term 'Value' view at present and let this go.
On the other side the way the Fahey runners, of all ages, are performing
at present you would change your view. He really does seem to have changed
his approach and be miles ahead of most trainers in readiness for early
season. To the point where you wonder whether he has gone to far and will
struggle for winners later.
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The second string for Hannon does not have
a 5f pedigree to the point where you wonder whether he might be a Captain
Cool. Barathea does get 5f wins but rarely and usually with high class
winners (who win at 5f on ability rather than being suited to it) or with
horses out of fast mares. The dam is ludicrously well related being a sibling
of three Group/Grade 1 winners but was a maiden herself and ran over 7-10f.
Not a likely winner here and one to assess for which end of the OR55-85
quality range he belongs.
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Back to Barry Hills now and Dark Angel .When
there was a maiden for males on the 3-day Craven Meeting card Mr Hills
regularly used to run high class types in it. With the reduction to the
two day affair and the loss of that race he has had to run the colts in
this race if he wants a runner. He has varied things but in 2007 he ran
Dark Angel who was second to Spirit Of Sharjah. In 2008 he ran three newcomers
and Servoca, Ouqba & Senatorial were 2nd, 3rd & 5th behind Art
Connoisseur. Which is 2 Group winners, an OR90 handicapper and an OR80
one in the four runners.
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Last year he had no runner and the horse you
would have expected to start here - Red Jazz - won a Windsor maiden instead.
He had no runner at Windsor this week and his only entries for next Monday
are the Brocklesby pair of Squires Gate & Diamond Geezah. Which means
we should take Early Applause seriously as a high class 2yo. If
he ended it a Group winner it would not be much of a surprise and he should
be OR90+. By good 2yo sire Royal Applause out of a stout dam he has a mix
of pace & precocity with development in his pedigree so an early debut
a good sign. But, like Hannon, the trainer's newcomers tend to place in
this race and even Dark Angel could not deal with a Listed class 2yo in
Spirit of Sharjah in a year lacking a strong previous winner.
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John Ryan had a very good 2009 with his 2yos
when a small batch, with cheap backgrounds, produced Listed winner Iver
Bridge Lad, Group winner Silver Grecian plus a minor maiden success. The
first of those ran in this race as a STO runner and finished a strong 3rd.
Ocean
Bay is an owner bred and a sibling to a poor 2yo of last year. Difficult
to place on that. Put an upside view on it and the dam was a 5f 2yo winner
and rated OR100 in late career. She could produce a solid 2yo and the sire
Dubai Destination does get early 5f winners with the right support. A Profile
of a horse that will be overpriced in the Market if the ability is there
so a must to check thoroughly in the paddock.
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And finally, here we are with another Clive
Brittain 2yo. You will be aware of the B2yoR view that Mr Brittain does
not have the juvenile bit under full control. A spate of early debuts this
year produced some ghastly looking efforts with horses looking at the remote
end of cluelessness. If one trundled along anonymously in midfield it was
a success. Because his older horses were running ok at the time the Market
had these flops at shorter prices near the head of the field. Now, to repeat
the point, Mr Brittain does get wins with his very best 2yos and the really
good ones can go well FTO. Somewhere in the current string a high class
'natural' will win FTO and surprise like Misheer did at the end of April
last year.
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Sikeeb has presumably been chosen for
this race because he is at the sharper end of what Mr Brittain has so might
actually be the good one. In 2007 he ran Jebel Tara in the version similar
to this one and he was too green to compete and won 3TO. He could not compete
in Group class which was why he could not compete FTO on ability. Sikeeb
is by Alhaarth who has a below average record with 2yos given his 'Champion
2yo' billing. As Awzaan showed last year he can get a good one but they
are uncommon and 3yo development types more like it. The dam is not speedy
either and not that classy. Given that background the 66,000 guineas price
suggests a good physical type. On profile a good chance of a higher class
horse but unlikely to be zippy enough here. If he were to be then you probably
would really have something.
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In summary, a peculiar field without strong
form to set a benchmark. Bilko Pak & Sikeeb bottom of the profile and
can probably remove Ocean Bay from the probables list but with the odd
twinge because he might be an overachiever. Early Applause &
Retainer Look better types from trainers who need that to get winners.
On quality grounds just prefer Early Applause but Mr Hannon might have
another Custard Pie behind his back. On FTO winner track record Julius
Geezer represents a good outlet and you would trust Dascombe, unlike Mr
Brittain say, to come back with the wheels having been put back on the
'Plan' properly.
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Two divisions of the Auction race at Beverley
as there was last year. 25 horses spread across the events in 2009 saw
the better class horses get to the front by the finish regardless of the
draw. The first division was won by a triple season winner who ended the
season rated OR77 from a couple of other OR70s types and clear of the rest
who produced only one later winner. The second division produced
more later winners but was a poorer group aside from the OR95 winner who
just beat an OR60 season maiden to give an idea of what an Alan McCabe
FTO win needs in terms of elbow room.
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Which means that in the smaller fields this
year, especially with 2 non-runners in the first division, the draw should
not be much of an issue. Although the draw is less of an issue in 2yo races
with spread abilities it is still worth knowing the likely affect of draw
& rail biases. If you are trying to nail down horse 'Class' levels
after one or two runs to a range of less than 5 rating points then a two
length rail bias matters.
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The first Division is of particular
interest because it is the first proper test of the two Southwell maidens
run in early season. The conditions were fast with a strong tailwind
and both were run in ridiculously fast times with the second producing
a juvenile Course record. The environment clearly helped with those fast
times but the circumstantials suggested they really were among the best
performances we have seen in early season. But, B2yoR would admit to a
niggle over whether the ratings given were a bit high. The large gaps back
from the front pair in each race lent credence to the view these were solid
horses running well and not just wind-driven.
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You could add to the positive view the fact
that Fahey won both divisions with 2yos he was confident about and the
fact that Arctic Feeling was useful was apparent before the race. Having
watched Harrison George run away from a handicap field yesterday to add
to his pile of early season winners you would feel more confident that
his string is miles ahead of everyone else and ready to run to high levels.
Arctic Feeling was entered for the Newmarket Conditions race and would
have presented the normal test for the newcomers. As an aside you worry
for a horse like Harrison George. Winning by 7 lengths in early season
off OR95 in an £11,000 race seems a moderate idea. You have shown
your hand to the BHA handicapper and he might well end up on OR106-8. If
a good part of that 7 length win was because he is 4 weeks further forward
that the rest then he is going to struggle off the higher OR mark. If he
really is an OR108 horse then why demonstrate how well-in he was
in a minor handicap. Do it in a £40,000 handicap.
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Anyway, Mappin Time ran very well in
the slower Southwell race behind Jamesway. He lost two lengths at the start
but recovered well and going comfortably at halfway three lengths off the
lead. He moved through to second without fuss and chased Jamesway to the
line as they pulled clear. A well above average debut for the trainer.
Just medium sized but neat, a well balanced mover, and a likeable attitude.
Not high class but ought to be OR75+ and set a good standard her with just
a bit of improvement. Appeals as a solid type who should test the form
properly. Despite having to give more than weight-for-sex to the cheaper
fillies looks up to the level of the 2009 winners and better placed types.
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Daas Rite was beaten further in his
division behind Arctic Feeling & Style And Panache but ran a time only
a couple of lengths slower than Mappin Time in the faster division. A different
physical type than Mappin Time. A more compact, deep-bodied, sprint type
and typical for trainer Ryan's first batch. Believable as an OR70+ early
sprinter. Gets 7lbs from Mappin Time for relative cheapness and closely
matched on that. As a pair Mappin Time & Daas Rite present a good test
of Southwell. Remember that Style And Panache ran third at odds-on last
week and might be considered to have let the form down. The B2yoR
view would be that she could not handle the wet going at Nottingham and
is much better than that showed. Jockey Spencer lodged a "Why They Ran
Badly" report with the stewards after the race saying as much.
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No Poppy & Il Battista are
non-runners so just 6 newcomers to take on the solid pair at the head of
the Profile. Dubai Celebration is, presumably, the last of a long
line of sprint winners out of the mare Pretty Poppy which peaked with Kyllachy.
The recent foals have been small fillies but this one is a colt. By a solid
sire so has a good pedigree as a 2yo winner if the dam is not too old.
Has to give weight to all except Mappin Time though. The trainer does get
odd strong debut runs but not normally this early. One to assess.
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The others are all cheap purchases, or retained
by breeders, running of the lowest weights for their sex. The sort that
would need to be much better than they read to be OR70+. Phair Winter
& Saltergate do not appeal although the second runs for a trainer
with a poor record overall but gets odd placed debuts and has won this
event with a surprise debut effort. But that was in a much weaker version.
Lovat Lane also looks like a small filly getting going. Her trainer
has only got 2yos winners between July to September in her first three
years with a licence despite early runners.
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Which leaves a couple of interest in the 'Cheap
Filly' basket. Glenns Princess runs for Fahey and B2yoR has come
to the view that something fundamental has changed with his stable's preparedness
this year. Not a few more early winners than usual like Hannon but a real
change in strategy. This one cost £800 and is out of a sub-trundler
dam who rated OR45. Should be too small and limited but, presumably, ready
to give it all she has off a low eight. But, too thin a profile despite
the trainer so a pass.
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That means that Chester Deelyte would
be top of the list of those to finish third behind the two with placed
form. Only cost £3,000 but a lot more than £800. By a good,
underappreciated, 2yo sire in Desert Style out of adam that won an Italian
Listed race at 2yo. The trainer's record is no winner from 20 individual
2yos in the period 2004-9. Hmm, not exactly 'Fahey', is it? No, but 5 of
the 20 have place don debut and she started 2008 with two placed debuts
for example. A trainer than overprepares them for debut and struggles to
know how to blag wins with limited ones, even OR70+ types in one case.
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In summary, 11 of the 13 races to date have
been won by newcomers and we have not really had a strong, form franking,
STO win yet. Las Verglas Star beat just two daft ones on his STO win and
Little Libretto beat four other horses on STO as the third string for her
stable. Mappin Time & Daas Rite both ran well enough at Southwell to
be a major barrier to the newcomers here and should provide the winner.
Mappin Time appeals as the better horse but has to give 7lbs to Daas Rite
which makes it seem like a tight handicap. But, preference for the Easterby
horse. Chester Deelyte the a surprise place type on the way to never winning.
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Beverley Division II has some similar
themes but a different overall take. Master Macho was the first
string for his trainer on debut and looked likely to get to the lead at
Kempton. But he deferred to his stablemate - Beach Patrol - as that one
crossed over to the rail from a wide draw to lead on the rail. 4th at halfway
and plugged on there without threatening to go forward and caught by the,
outpaced, pluggers-on late. Unlike the Southwell races that did not even
look like strong form at the time. The later runs by the 1st, 2nd, 7th
& 9th to 11th have produced one volunteer 3rd placing. Some excuses
for the winner on wet going along with Style And Panache but overall just
a moderate race. Which means Master Macho just at the top of the Profile
but at a lower level and do not really 'believe' in him.
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Fahey runs a stronger profile newcomer here
with Above The Stars and you suspect a strong debut from her if
she is OR70+ would see off Master Macho. Expensive at £11,000 by
the race standards out of an unraced dam but by a solid sprint sire. A
much more interesting type to provide Fahey with his 4th debut win of the
year.
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Going back to the Southwell races we would
find Roodee Queen finishing at the back of the slower division recording
a low rating. But, a solid physical type at an OR60s level and clearly
not fit enough that day. Lost 3-4 lengths at the start and 10th early.
Showed some ability to make a forward effort to 5th at halfway but that
emptied her reserves and she faded badly in later race. A fizzy type in
the preliminaries but one who ought to develop well with racing. Perhaps
a nursery project but should improve here and a minor each-way interest.
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Outside of those three and you are into some
lesser profiles to have a debut winner. If you were to pick out possibles
for a newcomer success then Dispol Snapper would be top. This is
an expensive one by the connection's standards and trainer Midgley has
got FTO wins with OR74+ quality. A solid enough pedigree in the context
of the race and an interesting each-way type.
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Anddante runs for Time Easterby and
debut wins are rare. He is top weight as the most expensive and may well
be a usable 2yo but unlikely to be ready enough to win even if OR70+ Class.
Reel Amber the Easterby second string and lacking the class as well
as the readiness. Kevin Ryan is another that does not regularly get FTO
wins with these early types and the runners so far this year have lived
up to that. He ran one in each division last year and they finished 5th
at 7/2 and 4th at 3/1. One was a seller winner (Fretwell 'get rid' type)
and the other a non-winner. Moderate value in the Market probably for unlikely
winner on the day for Surely This Time.
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Mini Bon Bon runs quickly STO and looked
a tiny short runner at Lingfield. Use her competence to get prominent early
but get left behind some time in the last 2 furlongs. Minch Man has
a usable 2yo pedigree and runs for a trainer who gets FTO winners but in
apparently random manner rather than at set times of the year. A minor
'Lurker' but not a strong profile. Whisper Louise looks a hopeless
case on profile.
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In summary, unlike Division I do not really
believe in the STO type in Master Macho and probably poor value. Above
The Stars looks a stronger Fahey profile and would be able to win if OR70+
and perhaps less given the readiness advantage the stable seems to have.
Interested in seeing how Roodee Queen develops STO and Dispol Snapper the
best of the Lurkers.
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