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The Fillies' Maiden at the Newmarket
Craven Meeting has a varied history and the 'Class' of the race has lessened
recently. Go back to 2002-3 and Bryan Meehan was running a later Group
3 7f filly in it and then having a success with one that won the Supersprint.
In the years up to 2008 Barry Hills was the primary source of class with
several Group quality juveniles representing him. He had a poor one in
the 2009 edition and that field was thin overall and barely a good open
maiden let alone a important one at a leading meeting. With Meehan now
rarely having early 5f runners and Barry Hills also absent the only places
to look for even hints of better ones looks to be Richard Hannon &
Mick Channon.
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Which is a good background for the field we
have this year. Leaving aside the Hannon & Channon fillies for a moment
we then have group of fillies with lower profiles from smaller stables
for the most part. Since they are running here you presume some of them
must be competitive & precocious ones but unlikely to be much better
than OR80 even in their over-rated days. The key to the race is to get
a handle on how good, and ready, Golden Shine and Penny's
Pearl are.
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Mick Channon has had occasional runners in
the race and since 2003 they have only been for two owners in Jaber Abdullah
and, the now departed, Tim Corby. Golden Shine is owned by by Mr Abdullah
and he is a key owner for the stable and the most likely to provide strong
debuts. In 2005 Channon ran Flashy Wings in the race for the owner and
she started at 5/4f on the way to winning and everyone 'knew' she was a
high class one.
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In 2008 he ran Danidh Dubai for him and she
was 20/1 and looked very underdone and finished 9th. She proved a solid
winner and placed in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. So, a runner here
for the owner ought to be a good one and the 'Market' might well have a
handle on what to expect for the day. Channon has not had a 2yo winner
yet and a number have not really finished the races off properly. Fallon
is here and hints she should be a good one but will she be ready? See what
the 'Market' says and 4/1 & under perhaps a benchmark.
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Richard Hannon has not won the race since
2003 when the high-class Vermillian saw off a Barry Hills newcomer. Since
then he has run a range of fillies on debut with one managing to place
and the prices have ranged from 3/1 to 16/1. None have been better class
and most OR73-OR84 and won open maidens at best. The lack of wins with
that type of filly typical for Hannon in normally tough versions of the
race. After Retainer won the Conditions race at yesterday's meeting on
debut from a clueless pair and another Dascombe fader we know that Mr Hannon
has a lot of useful ones to run early this season. Still not convinced
the debut wins are extra preparation but an increased quality linked to
a lack of opposition with many stables not into action.
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Penny's Pearl was a 2yo purchase from
the breeze-up sales at Kempton in early March. She was entered for the
first day of the season in the race Takeaway won for the stable. She is
the chosen of five entered for this race and you presume she is ready to
go. The Market has shown the 'expected' Hannon FTO wins recently by getting
down close to evens. If Golden Shine is not a ready 'Flashy Wings' and
this one had worked well with the winners so far you would expect her to
get to a short price against the rest of the opposition.
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After that you are into the precocious ones
with moderate pedigrees with one exception. Clive Brittain runs Yarooh
and she cost $100,000 at a sale in the US. By a good sire in Medaglio D'Oro
but not an obvious 5f type. His colt who ran yesterday was immature and
not ready to compete strongly and finished 2nd because the others were
worse. This ought to be a good one but none of the trainer's 2yos have
been ready to compete yet. Would need to be a 'Misheer' to compete with
the best of Penny's Pearl & Golden Shine. A vague possibility.
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Alan Bailey won the race last year with a
newcomer that never ran again. As covered before this was a continuation
of his improvement with handling 2yos and getting early strong debuts by
his earliest runners. He has run two this year and both have been competent
enough to attend the pace and be in the front three through halfway. But,
both have been too limited to finish the race off competitively. The 'Market'
has probably told us to expect this by them being 12/1+. If On Wings
Of Love has been chosen for this race you would expect her to be close
to the best he has. On the evidence so far that may not be that hot. An
€8,500 purchase by Hawk Wing out out adam placed over 12f does
not say 5f or 'Class'. See what the Market says.
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Those with previous runs look a weak set although
may
well get involved into the last 2 furlongs on fitness and nous. The three
McEntee fillies look dismissable and Helen Of Troy looked and ok
size at Folkestone but was soon outpaced and joined a raft of horses at
the meeting who hung right after getting away from the stands' rail (what
was going on that day?) . Trainer has a moderate record and a lesser profile.
Iztaccihuatl started the alarm bells ringing about the Kempton race
she ran in by finishing third. Either she had something or that was a duff
race. The subsequent defeats of everything that ran in it suggest the 'Duff'
hypothesis is close to the truth. But, she kept on well and this is a thin
race so a volunteer third or fourth not impossible but must be something
better.
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Which leaves four newcomers all with hints
of positives but with with low 'ceilings' to the quality. Mother Jones
represents David Brown who is developing an interesting record in his short
career. He is a 'Front Loader' who runs the usable ones first. In his first
season they ran in the earliest races with grisly results and took time
to win. The act got cleaned up last year and the earliest runners started
in May and placed on debut. This one is by a new sire that had a FTO winner
on the first day of the season at Kempton out of a dam who had won three
as a juvenile before failing in the Lily Agnes in early May. A career that
peaked before the season was very old. She has produced an ok early placed
2yo. A solid profile to be a competitive one and mostly ready here.
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Gaye Kelleway has run a FTO filly in each
of the last two editions with a 4th for better class Beat Seven followed
by a fifth for tiny trier Azif. The trainer has already had a debut winner
this year with filly Primo Lady. So, if Lady Morganna is better
than that one she can go well here. But a £5,000 2yo purchase does
not set a strong standard. Julia Feilden has run an ok type in the race
before and she failed to place. The trainer has had a debut winner at the
meeting but that needed Listed class Spirit Of Sharjah to so it. Emmas
Gift is the first runner for Aussie Rules and cost a reasonable £11,000.
The dam hs produced various winners. So, a minor winner possible but not
he class needed to win.
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And, finally , Robert Mills has his first
2yo runner having taken over form his father who died earlier in the year.
Phoebs
is a half sister to various 5f winners for the stable and many have had
hints of better class along with precocity. This is a very early start
for the stable so you presume this one is a natural for FTO winners of
this type untypical for his father.
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In summary, like watching an oil-tanker stop
and turn around, taking multiple nautical miles, it is the skill and precision
of the operation that impresses and not the speed. Channon and Hannon offer
the best source of some better class and a high class debut winner. The
Market should really be some help here if they get to some short prices.
The Hannon 2yos seem to be better quality as a group early and competent
enough to see off lesser opposition. So, Penny's Pearl comes out top on
Profile (probably just in time for Hannon to throw in a 'normal' debut
5th). If Golden Shine is at the Flashy Wings end of the Channon/Abdullah
fillies then she will be favourite and will be good but the trainer's 2yos
to date have not been convincing. After that, despite this race's reputation,
you are into a bits-and-pieces group of fillies from lesser backgrounds
and a similar ordinary quality to last year unless Yarooh is zippier and
more knowing than expected. Difficult to pick between the hints for those
but suggest Mother Jones & On Wings Of Love as likelier types. But,
a race where even with a 'Class 4' tag the bulk will be OR76 and, much
distance, downwards.
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[Short Kempton & Ripon notes to follow.
In summary both races look remarkably weak unless the Hannon newcomer at
Kempton is OK and the two Dascombe runners are better than he shown so
far. The run by Dascombe's Julius Geezer at Newmarket yesterday would not
convince you he has got his juveniles ready to show their form yet. Mirror
Lad at Kempton should be a good test in that he should be able to get
to the lead on the rail on the sharp bend there. If he cannot finish that
race off with those advantages then more than a hint of an 'issue'.]
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The Ripon maiden in 2009 was won by
the useful Here Now And Why (on STO after a strong debut) with Listed Class
Mister Mannanan in third. There were a number of minor winners strung out
behind and a good race overall in terms of future prospects. In second
last year was the Tim Easterby filly Saucy Girl who failed to develop from
that run which was surprising. This is the maiden Mr Easterby has used
for 15 years to introduce the best of his early fillies and often the best
he has going back to Group winners Pipalong & Romantic Myth.
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The field for this edition are an indication
of some of the strands that are missing in the season so far and why Hannon,
Fahey & Evans have been so dominant. HNAW was a useful Kevin Ryan early
season runner and those he has run so far have been less good and behind
schedule in preparation as well. Mister Manannan was the best of the David
Nicholls yard and like many Northern trainers he has not even entered a
horse yet. This situation improves at Thirsk tomorrow with Bryan Smart
& Michael Dods getting going with their juveniles.
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We are left with a field today which might
just be the minor winners and shorn of any better Class at the sharp end.
With doubts over the readiness of those who might be OR75 or a little better
it might need low quality performance to win. If you assume the draw
favours those who can get to the Stands' rail easily then it has not been
kind to those at the top of the profile. However, the field looks a full
spread of abilities and the competitors for the day ought to thin out to
3-4 at the front pretty quickly.
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Now, Tim Easterby does not even run a filly
in the race so we are not going to see the best of his females and therefore
an unlikely strong debut. Cocktail Charlie was bred by the trainer
out of a dam who was injured on her debut for him (in the May 6f Maiden
at Ripon) and never ran again. By the minor sire Danbird who managed to
get no Turf season winner in his first year in 2008. This mare would be
one of the best, in pedigree terms, he has covered though. Overall, seems
a lesser class substitute for the usual, high class, filly starting out
and we shall have to look elsewhere for her. Perhaps at Doncaster in early
May.
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Tom Dascombe ran a couple early and then took
a break from having runners after they underperformed and did not see their
races out properly. The first runner of the return batch ran a bit better
at Newmarket yesterday but also faded rather early. Julius Geezer ran a
little freely in front but was stalling before the final furlong. Which
means a doubt over how well the stable's 2yos are going at present and
check Hoppy's Flyer out rather than be expecting a strong debut.
Expensive in the context of the race at €20,000 with a plausible pedigree
she would be the sort that might be a better debut. The stable's third
choice (at best and more a valued 'Work' rider) is aboard to add to the
feeling this is one to watch today from a wider draw.
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We are then into the 'Now What?' area
and hence the feeling that this might be a soft race. The Fahey pair at
Beverley yesterday produced a reasonable fourth (very competent) from a
weak profile one and a strong win for one with a better profile. Bachelor
Knight fits the 'Moderate Profile' model at €3,000 by a sire who
has never had a winner at less than 7f out of a dam who could not place
anywhere starting at 5f and finishing over hurdles. One to pass over normally
but with the 'Fahey Factor' in full force at the start of the season and
a good draw more than a niggle this one might hang around for a long time.
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Similar thoughts about the Evans runner Just
For Leo because despite a modest quality profile he is by a good sire
for early runners. He will also be ready to give most of what e has here.
Drawn widest but a solid 5lb apprentice riding so not easy to dismiss in
a profile this low level.
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The most interesting runner in quality terms
is George Moore's Kheya who is the most expensive here at £36,000
as a 2yo. A good pedigree was has produced better class 2yos so a positive
their. Mr Moore ran his best 2yo of 2009 in the race and he competed poorly
because he was not a 5f horse. The trainer does get the odd strong debut
and win, although later in the season often from May onwards. Since this
one is a recent purchase someone else will have done much of the earlier
preparation. Drawn near the rail and with a possible quality edge an interesting
Lurker.
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You are then into some weak profiles which
will require a surprise in the ability they have or a very weak race for
them to compete. We saw yesterday with Nigel Tinkler's first runner placing
at 33/1 that, despite his overall moderate record, the debuts are usually
competent. Which means you might pick out Dreamweaving from the
chorus as the 25/1 3rd, or fourth if you back it each-way.
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In summary, not a likeable race shape and
might take a poor performance to win it. If there is something lurking
with a bit of OR75+ quality and enough readiness it could win comfortably.
Do not believe the Dascombe runner is that one nor yet convinced the trainer
is into form. The Easterby runner does not look the 'best filly' type who
would win this for obvious reason. The Fahey & Evans pair then become
possibles to win on preparation even if they at sub OR65 quality and difficult
to be enthusiastic. Most interest in Kheya and see how ready he is and
perhaps an each-way type.
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