BRITISH 2yo RACING 

2010 SEASON - RACING PREVIEW

 


Racing Preview - 
April 16th
Races :-
20: Newbury 1:35, 5.2f Maiden (4)
21: Thirsk 2:00, 5f Novice (4)
22: Thirsk 2:30, 5f Claimer (4)

 April 16th  Summary :-
  • The Newbury Maiden often produces a field where just over half of the field end up being winners during the season, at various levels. Since 2005 the only higher class horse to come out of it has been Winker Watson and the quality has topped out around the OR85-90 types who win Conditions races and come up short above that. More of the latest in the line of Johnny Alpha, Winker Watson, & Skid Solo for the Comic Strip Heroes below but where else to start but with the Hannon runner  Royal Exchange.
  • The win for Penny's Pearl at Newmarket yesterday brought Hannon's record with debuts in 2010 to 6 wins and one 5th placer (as second string to one of his winners). Hannon has never started with this sort of blast and it is not 'typical' in Punditspeak. It is highly unusual and needs some explaining. The trainer probably has his strongest string in terms of numbers and quality and that clearly means he has more horses to choose from and more better ones. The lack of opposition in the race has been instrumental in two of the FTO wins by ordinary types. The slow start by many bigger stables overall has meant a lack of stronger rivals for the higher class horses he has won with at Windsor & Newmarket this week. How would Zebedee have fared against a 'Red Jazz' at Windsor and Penny's Pearl with a 'Flashy Wings', for example? Another factor seems to be the 'Racing Post' bonus payments and a number of trainers clearly have getting a slice of that payout, if they can, as a priority. If you are Hannon then why have an 'easy debut' on the way to winning a £5,000 Novice when you can get a bigger return from making sure you get a bonus.
  • Now, a debut for The Queen would be top of the list for a strong Hannon debut regardless of how many he had already produced. The debut winners for that owner have always tended to progress less than the stable average to confirm the point. The trainer does not especially target this race and this is his recent record :-
    • 2005 = Caan 3rd at 10/1 & a non-winner, Ocean Pride 5th at 7/1 and a solid maiden winner later
    • 2006 = Cav Okay 3/1 and ironed out a thinner fields than it promised on the day.
    • 2007 = Party In The Park 3rd at 16/1 and a non-winner
    • 2008 = Sun Ship 3rd at 11/2 and a solid maiden winner. 
    • 2009 = Planet Red 2nd at 4/1 and a solid maiden winner, Once Cool Buck 13th at 16/1 and a non-winner
  • The SPs are interesting with 4/1 and below often indicating a better one they think can compete on the day. 9/2 to around 8/1 and probably an Open Maiden winner type (OR75-82) that will win STO or 3TO and 9/1+ an OR60s type. If we think back to this week then the short SPs for Zebedee & Retainer suggest the stable were confident on the day that these were higher class and ready. The 4/1 for Penny's Pearl meant they were less confident and she had a real rival in Golden Shine but the 4/1 level meant they thought she could compete. What the 8/1 for Cape To Rio at Folkestone said is probably that he surprised the Hannons as well with how good he looked. Looking at last year's result reminds us of another source of strong debuts we have been missing. Planet Red ran very well but was comfortably beaten by a souped-up Dascombe newcomer and that trainer is yet to get going. He was also 4/1 because John Gosden had the favourite and another major stable we have not heard anything from this year.
  • A debut this early for The Queen and not as a second string adds further to the thought that this one must be ok.  This one is a second, owner bred, foal and the first was a small one that was 14/1 on debut for the Hannons and unplaced and managed to win a weak Leicester race by accident and got rated OR75 which was much too high. It only attracted a bid of 5,500 guineas when they tried to get rid of it at the 'Horses In Training' sales last year. If Royal Exchange is here he must be bigger and better than that. See what the 'Market' says but would expect this to be a sub 4/1 variety.
  • Some interesting trainers represented amongst the others and good to see a wider range getting going. Barry Hills has had his first winners this week with 3yos and the Brocklesby 2yos ran ok. His rep at Newmarket was a woeful effort and out of keeping with his record there. But, perhaps he is changing where he sends his better runners in early season. It was Windsor in 2009 and Red Marling runs for long term supporter Mr Arculli who has had good 2yos like Red Jazz & Red Clubs in recent years. There is a pattern in the naming but you just can't put your finger on it, can you? As unthinking as all that 'Art Everything' bit or endless combinations of 'Lexi' & 'Layla'. Bring back all the arab ones with just 'a' as the vowel. Experience will mean you do know your Awzaan from your Elbow, err.. Awzaal.
  • As the name suggests this one is a son of multiple Group 1 winning dam Marling who has not really produced much at stud. She has now started producing live foals again and a couple of minor recent winners. Mr Hills has run 7 in the race in the last 4 years with one place to show for it. 5 of the 7 have gone on to be winners but in the OR72-85 range and not better quality. A solid type to be a winner on profile but not a likely FTO success if not superior.
  • Peter Chapple-Hyam used to be a really important trainer then the 'Communication' problems started and horses just seem to leak away from his stable. Coordinated Cut winning for Michael Bell this week as a 3yo a further example. His overall record with 2yos has got worse and that includes the percentage of debut winners. His record with the earliest, April, debuts was moderate before the problems started. Targetting this race with a 2yo for the 'Comic Strip Heroes' has been a constant with three recent runners in it producing a win for Winker Watson (the trainer's only April FTO winner and quality driven) and places for Johnny Alpha And Skid Solo (non-winner at 2yo).
  • Foghorn Leghorn seems less of the 'Action Hero' variety but a great thinker of our times, nonetheless. This one is by sire Medicean who gets odd 5-6f FTO wins but usually with high class runners with 2 of the 4 by Nannina & Dutch Art (for this trainer). The dam was a small filly from one of Cheveley Park's faster families and made her debut in April with a second in the equivalent of the 'Pennys Pearl' race at Newmarket. Too small to develop after a win and has produced an even smaller one who followed a similar career path. Overall a perfectly believable early type but a bit light on the Class needed to win FTO for the trainer & Sire. The trainer is very good at assessing his 2yos so the 'Market' should be instructive here. Winker Watson was 9/4f for his win to give an idea of a Benchmark level.
  • Paul Cole is another larger stable that it is good to see getting going. He runs Memen as an expensive son of Verglas and a sibling to a couple of sprint winners at 2yo. Mr Cole does get targetted debut winners in strong maidens and the Market often shows it in the later stages. Major courses like York, Newmarket & Newbury plus the all-weather tracks (in later season) are usually the best places to expect the high quality ones to start and win. The earliest runners each year will be competitive ones and often include a high class horse. But, April debut wins are rare with just one since 2001. The type that could place FTO if mentally ready but might blow-out and would probably need to be an OR90+ one to win.
  • Shafgaan is the first STO runner for Clive Brittain and the runs by his latest batch of debuts indicated that they are slowly improving in readiness. Shafgaan ran a competent debut on heavy ground and tried to press the winner but faded late one. The horses that closed onto him late on at Folkestone both ran at Leicester in a moderate event and ran ok and badly. Overall, the form looks suspect and Shafgaan not a higher class sort. Interesting to see how the Brittain 2yos improve to STO but this one starts from too low a base.
  • No interest in Honourable Knight and more 'Communication' problems for Peter with ex-wife Jane Chapple-Hyam running Klammer. And it was all 'downhill' for all parties concerned.  Mrs C-H is a Front-Loader and does prepare horses well for debut. This one she purchased herself and it is another one by good speed source Exceed And Excel out of a stout mare. This should be a solid winner and mostly competent so compete well. Light on quality but well prepared. Perhaps a side bet as to whether the Skier can beat the big Cockerel. 
  • Mick Channon has not got going with his 2yos and Prophet In A Dream is another that he bred himself running for his mates at the local pub. Clearly, he wants to do well for them but a hint of 'Day Out' runner with his stables 15 miles up the A34 from the course. The sort the trainer would get a win with sometime but often in a claimer.
  • Andrew Balding had a very good 2009 with his 2yos and a real step forward from his 'Mr Average' 10% Strike Rate despite his connections and advantages. How much of that improvement was a, random, better crop of 2yos will be a good test for him this year. Can he maintain the improvement or will he regress to his mean. Debut winners are not common (1 to 3 a year) and start in May normally. He ran Stargaze in this race last year who finished last on the way to a 3TO win and running in Group races.
  • Rojo Boy is a 20,000 guineas purchase by good sire Red Ransom. The dam is well related including to Baldings' Group 3 winning 2yo Diktatorial but was a poor runner. The earliest runners each year will be loaded with competitive 2yos who will normally win STO or 3TO.  Another who seems a certain future winner but unlikely to be ready enough on the day.
  • In summary, a race where the placed horses would normally come from Royal Exchange, Memen, Foghorn Leghorn & Red Marling. Given the Hannon record in 2010 and the owner then the first of those is at the top of the profile and very difficult to oppose. The SP should be below 4/1 if he is ok and getting below 2/1 if he is better class. Red Marling is a vague possible to beat him with a strong debut if he is the best that Barry Hills has early but the evidence for him being ready enough is not strong. Klammer best of the reps from smaller stables but a race that should produce 5 later winners, at least.
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  • [Thirsk Novice Race notes to follow. The Claimer race looks Lady Brookie's to lose unless she has regressed notably or the Brocklesby form is over-rated. In typical underdog mode trainer Turner believes he can only win 2yo races in Claimers & Sellers with horses wearing cheekpieces and ridden by an apprentice. Here she is playing the role after one tame fade after a good effort in the Brocklesby. Perhaps Lord Avon for the same owner and trainer who runs in the Novice really is some good and perhaps another 'The Lord' which means Lady Brookie really can be a 'disposable' second string to provide a definite winner.]
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  • A fascinating edition of the Thirsk Novice which has a, dizzyingly, good recent record when you check it. The fields tend to be hugely unbalanced with a lot of garbage but the quality has been good in the last four years. In 2006 a newcomer won it with Lovelace running for Mark Johnston. He never reappeared at 2yo but has gone on to be a Group 2 winner at best. The 2007 version was weak with an OR80ish handicapper winning. 2008 saw precocious Listed winner Bahamian Babe win with Lord Shanakill back in third. Just in front of the later Group 1 winner was the Bill Turner runner Gone Hunting. His later win was not in a pattern race but a claimer, wearing cheekpieces. Nothing if not predictable and a useful reminder that Lady Brookie being in a claimer does not mean she is moderate, necessarily. Last year later Listed winner Star Rover won comfortably from a thin field for David Evans.
  • Which means that a normal edition will be won by a horse with strong previous form unless there is a superior newcomer. The three winners are a good set but are drawn away from the stands' rail. The rail can be a real advantage at the course. Novabridge is drawn closest to the rail and led early in his win so may well make a good attempt to get to the rail. Bathwick Bear is a bit wider and managed to get to the leading line early in his win. Arctic Feeling is drawn wide but showed a quick start and plenty of early pace at Southwell. An intriguing set-up. A couple of possible fast starters in the newcomers who might help to mix things up with Lord Avon & Lady Platinum Club drawn close to the rail than any of them. Both are newcomers but from trainers who drill their horses well at home.
  • So, the winners are the best place to look for the winner so how do they compare in quality. Arctic Feeling recorded the best rating in breaking the course record at Southwell on debut in a strong performance where he finished the race off strongly. The subsequent runs of horses from those Southwell races suggest the rating given were too high. The ridiculously fast times on the day seem to have been strongly driven by a cold tailwind. Which is why it was so bloody cold that day. But, he looked a believable fast 2yo and better quality than Bahamian Babe for example. The trainer was confident he was a good one before he ran. Now, the trainer has a mixed record with developing 2yos that gave strong debuts performances and added to a wide draw adds a few niggles to the positive Paddock view from his debut. A solid favourite but what would 'Value' be? 7/4 would feel a bit tight so perhaps 2/1.
  • David Evans said after Bathwick Bear's win that is was his fastest 2yo and would be targetted at the Lily Agnes, a race he wanted to win and finally achieved with Star Rover last year. Bathwick Bear is running in this race, as Star Rover did, so is following the same path. His form was reasonably well franked by Scarlet Rock's running well for her, typical, 4.5 furlongs before fading against Zebedee. A solid profile but the win was not a s taking as the Arctic Feeling effort.
  • Novabridge won comfortably but from a moderate group who were green and some not really put into the race. Unlike Arctic Feeling he has run a slow time on an undulating track rather than a flat track blast as this course is. Probably  better than the Folkestone race let him show and closer to the front two than the Market may show. 
  • Extra interest in this race because the newcomers have some interesting storied in them. Bill Turner has long targetted the Thirsk races and runs Lord Avon here for the same owner breeder as Lady Brookie.  He has won the race with Dusty Dazzler & Miss Brookie to add to the two recent second places. If Lord Avon is better than Lady Brookie then well drawn, receiving weight and with an apprentice he could compete well and place.
  • Two, larger, Northern stables have their first runners and both are trainers who get regular FTO winners with their earlier representatives. This race is clearly stronger than a normal maiden or auction event so difficult to see their runners winning but good to judge how ready they are and one might be useful. Bryan Smart runs Boundless Spirit  who is a £30,000 son of Invincible Spirit and half brother to a Listed f 2yo plus some much lesser types. Runs for the Pinnacle Partnership who are important group for the trainer. Drawn next to the rail and might well be above average. Another troublesome type for the wider drawn previous winners if he is useful.
  • Michael Dods is probably the 'King' of the FTO P&L over the last 7 years which has included two 100/1 debut winners. The Market never used to take him seriously but he overprepared his runners for FTO. He is also a classical 'Front Loader' where the early runners are the best he has of the precocious set. The trainer now has more resources with owner Andrew Tinkler buying more horses for the yard and has, apparently, bought some of the Top Lots at this week's Breeze-up (2yos) sale in Newmarket. If Mr Dods could get wins with cheaper ones what is he going to do with better quality FTO? Reachforthestars is owned by Tinkler and cost €40,000 which used to be the stables 'Top End' in the past when sales prices were higher in general. An all-American pedigree from the first crop of Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Silver Train out of a fast mare that won at Listed level over 5-6f. Hmm, really could be 'Anything' and a must to check how ready he is though drawn wide.
  • A couple of other debuts to mention with Tom Dascombe running Coconut Ice who was entered for early season races before he stopped having runners. The performances of his three runners in the last two days on his restart with runners has not been encouraging. Both Mirror Lad & Julius Geezer again were under pressure and fading much earlier than would be normal. Difficult to support the stable until you see some positive runs. Lady Platinum Club is a minor Lurker in the sense of a moderate looking owner bred on Profile but from a trainer who runs a competitive one early and overprepares them. Will come up short on quality but no surprise to see a quick break and getting involved early.
  • In summary, a terrific version of the race which would be a good one with just the three previous winners supported by some makeweights and see how the form shakes out. The addition of some particularly interesting newcomers adds depth and interest and the bigger field brings the draw into greater importance. The instinct is to follow the impression Arctic Feeling made at Southwell despite the niggles and hope he wins well in a strong race and performance. But, be tough about only accepting a value price after the newcomers have bee checked. Bathwick Bear a solid alternative and perhaps an each-way type id the Fahey Factor pushes his runner to a short SP. A few possibles in the newcomers to give an each-way play with the draw more helpful to Lord Avon & Boundless Spirit. Mr Dods likely to be an important factor in the North this year so Reachforthestars effort from a wide draw a fascinating addition.
 

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