-
The Newbury Maiden often produces a
field where just over half of the field end up being winners during the
season, at various levels. Since 2005 the only higher class horse to come
out of it has been Winker Watson and the quality has topped out around
the OR85-90 types who win Conditions races and come up short above that.
More of the latest in the line of Johnny Alpha, Winker Watson, & Skid
Solo for the Comic Strip Heroes below but where else to start but with
the Hannon runner Royal Exchange.
-
The win for Penny's Pearl at Newmarket yesterday
brought Hannon's record with debuts in 2010 to 6 wins and one 5th placer
(as second string to one of his winners). Hannon has never started
with this sort of blast and it is not 'typical' in Punditspeak. It is highly
unusual and needs some explaining. The trainer probably has his strongest
string in terms of numbers and quality and that clearly means he has more
horses to choose from and more better ones. The lack of opposition in the
race has been instrumental in two of the FTO wins by ordinary types. The
slow start by many bigger stables overall has meant a lack of stronger
rivals for the higher class horses he has won with at Windsor & Newmarket
this week. How would Zebedee have fared against a 'Red Jazz' at Windsor
and Penny's Pearl with a 'Flashy Wings', for example? Another factor seems
to be the 'Racing Post' bonus payments and a number of trainers clearly
have getting a slice of that payout, if they can, as a priority. If you
are Hannon then why have an 'easy debut' on the way to winning a £5,000
Novice when you can get a bigger return from making sure you get a bonus.
-
Now, a debut for The Queen would be top of
the list for a strong Hannon debut regardless of how many he had already
produced. The debut winners for that owner have always tended to progress
less than the stable average to confirm the point. The trainer does not
especially target this race and this is his recent record :-
-
2005 = Caan 3rd at 10/1 & a non-winner,
Ocean Pride 5th at 7/1 and a solid maiden winner later
-
2006 = Cav Okay 3/1 and ironed out a thinner
fields than it promised on the day.
-
2007 = Party In The Park 3rd at 16/1 and a
non-winner
-
2008 = Sun Ship 3rd at 11/2 and a solid maiden
winner.
-
2009 = Planet Red 2nd at 4/1 and a solid maiden
winner, Once Cool Buck 13th at 16/1 and a non-winner
-
The SPs are interesting with 4/1 and below
often indicating a better one they think can compete on the day. 9/2 to
around 8/1 and probably an Open Maiden winner type (OR75-82) that will
win STO or 3TO and 9/1+ an OR60s type. If we think back to this week then
the short SPs for Zebedee & Retainer suggest the stable were confident
on the day that these were higher class and ready. The 4/1 for Penny's
Pearl meant they were less confident and she had a real rival in Golden
Shine but the 4/1 level meant they thought she could compete. What the
8/1 for Cape To Rio at Folkestone said is probably that he surprised the
Hannons as well with how good he looked. Looking at last year's result
reminds us of another source of strong debuts we have been missing. Planet
Red ran very well but was comfortably beaten by a souped-up Dascombe newcomer
and that trainer is yet to get going. He was also 4/1 because John Gosden
had the favourite and another major stable we have not heard anything from
this year.
-
A debut this early for The Queen and not as
a second string adds further to the thought that this one must be ok.
This one is a second, owner bred, foal and the first was a small one that
was 14/1 on debut for the Hannons and unplaced and managed to win a weak
Leicester race by accident and got rated OR75 which was much too high.
It only attracted a bid of 5,500 guineas when they tried to get rid of
it at the 'Horses In Training' sales last year. If Royal Exchange is here
he must be bigger and better than that. See what the 'Market' says but
would expect this to be a sub 4/1 variety.
-
Some interesting trainers represented amongst
the others and good to see a wider range getting going. Barry Hills has
had his first winners this week with 3yos and the Brocklesby 2yos ran ok.
His rep at Newmarket was a woeful effort and out of keeping with his record
there. But, perhaps he is changing where he sends his better runners in
early season. It was Windsor in 2009 and Red Marling runs for long
term supporter Mr Arculli who has had good 2yos like Red Jazz & Red
Clubs in recent years. There is a pattern in the naming but you just can't
put your finger on it, can you? As unthinking as all that 'Art Everything'
bit or endless combinations of 'Lexi' & 'Layla'. Bring back all the
arab ones with just 'a' as the vowel. Experience will mean you do know your Awzaan from your Elbow, err.. Awzaal.
-
As the name suggests this one is a son of
multiple Group 1 winning dam Marling who has not really produced much at
stud. She has now started producing live foals again and a couple of minor
recent winners. Mr Hills has run 7 in the race in the last 4 years with
one place to show for it. 5 of the 7 have gone on to be winners but in
the OR72-85 range and not better quality. A solid type to be a winner on
profile but not a likely FTO success if not superior.
-
Peter Chapple-Hyam used to be a really important
trainer then the 'Communication' problems started and horses just seem
to leak away from his stable. Coordinated Cut winning for Michael Bell
this week as a 3yo a further example. His overall record with 2yos has
got worse and that includes the percentage of debut winners. His record
with the earliest, April, debuts was moderate before the problems started.
Targetting this race with a 2yo for the 'Comic Strip Heroes' has been a
constant with three recent runners in it producing a win for Winker Watson
(the trainer's only April FTO winner and quality driven) and places for
Johnny Alpha And Skid Solo (non-winner at 2yo).
-
Foghorn Leghorn
seems less of the 'Action Hero' variety but a great thinker of our times,
nonetheless. This one is by sire Medicean who gets odd 5-6f FTO wins but
usually with high class runners with 2 of the 4 by Nannina & Dutch
Art (for this trainer). The dam was a small filly from one of Cheveley
Park's faster families and made her debut in April with a second in the
equivalent of the 'Pennys Pearl' race at Newmarket. Too small to develop
after a win and has produced an even smaller one who followed a similar
career path. Overall a perfectly believable early type but a bit light
on the Class needed to win FTO for the trainer & Sire. The trainer
is very good at assessing his 2yos so the 'Market' should be instructive
here. Winker Watson was 9/4f for his win to give an idea of a Benchmark
level.
-
Paul Cole is another larger stable that it
is good to see getting going. He runs Memen as an expensive son
of Verglas and a sibling to a couple of sprint winners at 2yo. Mr Cole
does get targetted debut winners in strong maidens and the Market often
shows it in the later stages. Major courses like York, Newmarket &
Newbury plus the all-weather tracks (in later season) are usually the best
places to expect the high quality ones to start and win. The earliest runners
each year will be competitive ones and often include a high class horse.
But, April debut wins are rare with just one since 2001. The type that
could place FTO if mentally ready but might blow-out and would probably
need to be an OR90+ one to win.
-
Shafgaan is the first STO runner for
Clive Brittain and the runs by his latest batch of debuts indicated that
they are slowly improving in readiness. Shafgaan ran a competent debut
on heavy ground and tried to press the winner but faded late one. The horses
that closed onto him late on at Folkestone both ran at Leicester in a moderate
event and ran ok and badly. Overall, the form looks suspect and Shafgaan
not a higher class sort. Interesting to see how the Brittain 2yos improve
to STO but this one starts from too low a base.
-
No interest in Honourable Knight and
more 'Communication' problems for Peter with ex-wife Jane Chapple-Hyam
running Klammer. And it was all 'downhill' for all parties concerned.
Mrs C-H is a Front-Loader and does prepare horses well for debut. This
one she purchased herself and it is another one by good speed source Exceed
And Excel out of a stout mare. This should be a solid winner and mostly
competent so compete well. Light on quality but well prepared. Perhaps
a side bet as to whether the Skier can beat the big Cockerel.
-
Mick Channon has not got going with his 2yos
and Prophet In A Dream is another that he bred himself running for
his mates at the local pub. Clearly, he wants to do well for them but a
hint of 'Day Out' runner with his stables 15 miles up the A34 from the
course. The sort the trainer would get a win with sometime but often in
a claimer.
-
Andrew Balding had a very good 2009 with his
2yos and a real step forward from his 'Mr Average' 10% Strike Rate despite
his connections and advantages. How much of that improvement was a, random,
better crop of 2yos will be a good test for him this year. Can he maintain
the improvement or will he regress to his mean. Debut winners are not common
(1 to 3 a year) and start in May normally. He ran Stargaze in this race
last year who finished last on the way to a 3TO win and running in Group
races.
-
Rojo Boy
is a 20,000 guineas purchase by good sire Red Ransom. The dam is well related
including to Baldings' Group 3 winning 2yo Diktatorial but was a poor runner.
The earliest runners each year will be loaded with competitive 2yos who
will normally win STO or 3TO. Another who seems a certain future
winner but unlikely to be ready enough on the day.
-
In summary, a race where the placed horses
would normally come from Royal Exchange, Memen, Foghorn Leghorn & Red
Marling. Given the Hannon record in 2010 and the owner then the first of
those is at the top of the profile and very difficult to oppose. The SP
should be below 4/1 if he is ok and getting below 2/1 if he is better class.
Red Marling is a vague possible to beat him with a strong debut if he is
the best that Barry Hills has early but the evidence for him being ready
enough is not strong. Klammer best of the reps from smaller stables but
a race that should produce 5 later winners, at least.
-
-------------------------------------------
-
[Thirsk Novice Race notes to follow.
The Claimer race looks Lady Brookie's to lose unless she has regressed
notably or the Brocklesby form is over-rated. In typical underdog mode
trainer Turner believes he can only win 2yo races in Claimers & Sellers
with horses wearing cheekpieces and ridden by an apprentice. Here she is
playing the role after one tame fade after a good effort in the Brocklesby.
Perhaps Lord Avon for the same owner and trainer who runs in the Novice
really is some good and perhaps another 'The Lord' which means Lady Brookie
really can be a 'disposable' second string to provide a definite winner.]
-
--------------------------------------------
-
A fascinating edition of the Thirsk Novice
which has a, dizzyingly, good recent record when you check it. The fields
tend to be hugely unbalanced with a lot of garbage but the quality has
been good in the last four years. In 2006 a newcomer won it with Lovelace
running for Mark Johnston. He never reappeared at 2yo but has gone on to
be a Group 2 winner at best. The 2007 version was weak with an OR80ish
handicapper winning. 2008 saw precocious Listed winner Bahamian Babe win
with Lord Shanakill back in third. Just in front of the later Group 1 winner
was the Bill Turner runner Gone Hunting. His later win was not in a pattern
race but a claimer, wearing cheekpieces. Nothing if not predictable and a useful reminder
that Lady Brookie being in a claimer does not mean she is moderate, necessarily.
Last year later Listed winner Star Rover won comfortably from a thin field
for David Evans.
-
Which means that a normal edition will be
won by a horse with strong previous form unless there is a superior newcomer.
The three winners are a good set but are drawn away from the stands' rail.
The rail can be a real advantage at the course. Novabridge is drawn
closest to the rail and led early in his win so may well make a good attempt
to get to the rail. Bathwick Bear is a bit wider and managed to
get to the leading line early in his win. Arctic Feeling is drawn wide
but showed a quick start and plenty of early pace at Southwell. An intriguing
set-up. A couple of possible fast starters in the newcomers who might help
to mix things up with Lord Avon & Lady Platinum Club
drawn close to the rail than any of them. Both are newcomers but from trainers
who drill their horses well at home.
-
So, the winners are the best place to look
for the winner so how do they compare in quality. Arctic Feeling recorded
the best rating in breaking the course record at Southwell on debut in
a strong performance where he finished the race off strongly. The subsequent
runs of horses from those Southwell races suggest the rating given were
too high. The ridiculously fast times on the day seem to have been strongly
driven by a cold tailwind. Which is why it was so bloody cold that day.
But, he looked a believable fast 2yo and better quality than Bahamian Babe
for example. The trainer was confident he was a good one before he ran.
Now, the trainer has a mixed record with developing 2yos that gave strong
debuts performances and added to a wide draw adds a few niggles to the
positive Paddock view from his debut. A solid favourite but what would
'Value' be? 7/4 would feel a bit tight so perhaps 2/1.
-
David Evans said after Bathwick Bear's win
that is was his fastest 2yo and would be targetted at the Lily Agnes, a
race he wanted to win and finally achieved with Star Rover last year. Bathwick
Bear is running in this race, as Star Rover did, so is following the same
path. His form was reasonably well franked by Scarlet Rock's running well
for her, typical, 4.5 furlongs before fading against Zebedee. A solid profile
but the win was not a s taking as the Arctic Feeling effort.
-
Novabridge won comfortably but from a moderate
group who were green and some not really put into the race. Unlike Arctic
Feeling he has run a slow time on an undulating track rather than a flat
track blast as this course is. Probably better than the Folkestone
race let him show and closer to the front two than the Market may show.
-
Extra interest in this race because the newcomers
have some interesting storied in them. Bill Turner has long targetted the
Thirsk races and runs Lord Avon here for the same owner breeder
as Lady Brookie. He has won the race with Dusty Dazzler & Miss
Brookie to add to the two recent second places. If Lord Avon is better
than Lady Brookie then well drawn, receiving weight and with an apprentice
he could compete well and place.
-
Two, larger, Northern stables have their first
runners and both are trainers who get regular FTO winners with their earlier
representatives. This race is clearly stronger than a normal maiden or
auction event so difficult to see their runners winning but good to judge
how ready they are and one might be useful. Bryan Smart runs Boundless
Spirit who is a £30,000 son of Invincible Spirit and half
brother to a Listed f 2yo plus some much lesser types. Runs for the Pinnacle
Partnership who are important group for the trainer. Drawn next to the
rail and might well be above average. Another troublesome type for the
wider drawn previous winners if he is useful.
-
Michael Dods is probably the 'King' of the
FTO P&L over the last 7 years which has included two 100/1 debut winners.
The Market never used to take him seriously but he overprepared his runners
for FTO. He is also a classical 'Front Loader' where the early runners
are the best he has of the precocious set. The trainer now has more resources
with owner Andrew Tinkler buying more horses for the yard and has, apparently,
bought some of the Top Lots at this week's Breeze-up (2yos) sale in Newmarket.
If Mr Dods could get wins with cheaper ones what is he going to do with
better quality FTO? Reachforthestars is owned by Tinkler and cost
€40,000 which used to be the stables 'Top End' in the past when sales
prices were higher in general. An all-American pedigree from the first
crop of Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Silver Train out of a fast mare that
won at Listed level over 5-6f. Hmm, really could be 'Anything' and a must
to check how ready he is though drawn wide.
-
A couple of other debuts to mention with Tom
Dascombe running Coconut Ice who was entered for early season races
before he stopped having runners. The performances of his three runners
in the last two days on his restart with runners has not been encouraging.
Both Mirror Lad & Julius Geezer again were under pressure and fading
much earlier than would be normal. Difficult to support the stable until
you see some positive runs. Lady Platinum Club is a minor Lurker in the
sense of a moderate looking owner bred on Profile but from a trainer who
runs a competitive one early and overprepares them. Will come up short
on quality but no surprise to see a quick break and getting involved early.
-
In summary, a terrific version of the race
which would be a good one with just the three previous winners supported
by some makeweights and see how the form shakes out. The addition of some
particularly interesting newcomers adds depth and interest and the bigger
field brings the draw into greater importance. The instinct is to follow
the impression Arctic Feeling made at Southwell despite the niggles and
hope he wins well in a strong race and performance. But, be tough about
only accepting a value price after the newcomers have bee checked. Bathwick
Bear a solid alternative and perhaps an each-way type id the Fahey Factor
pushes his runner to a short SP. A few possibles in the newcomers to give
an each-way play with the draw more helpful to Lord Avon & Boundless
Spirit. Mr Dods likely to be an important factor in the North this year
so Reachforthestars effort from a wide draw a fascinating addition.
|
