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Two races on Monday and a case of make the
most of them. Apart from a race at Catterick on Wednesday a dry period
until the 2yos are back on Saturday. More of the 'Hannon Roadshow' later
but let us start with an, unusually, solid looking field for the Fillies'
Maiden at Pontefract. Until 2006 this was a low level Auction
event for the females and then became and open fillies' maiden at level
weights. Here is a summary of the three runnings as a Maiden :-
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2007 = 13 runner field with the Mick
Channon & Barry Hills fillies non runners. Both of that pair won during
the season and their absence left an empty race. Useful filly Loch Jipp
won at 50/1 and went on to blag a success in the Hilary Needler. The other
12 managed a single win in the whole of the season, in a claimer.
The futility of it all. Loch Jipp was about twice the size of any of the
other fillies and a child could have picked her out, in the Paddock Review,
as the one likely to outrun her SP. She won from Draw 10 from fillies out
of stalls 15, 12 & 11. The first three were 3rd, 6th & 4th at halfway.
The useless front-runner only faded back to 5th.
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2008 = 7 runner field with the 16/1
outsider winning on her sole 2yo run. The other 6 achieved, during the
season, one win in a claimer and two in nurseries. One of the nursery winners
managed to progress to place in a poor Group event but was only 5th on
her debut here. Stall 6 won from draws 1 & 4. The first three
were 1st, 3rd & 6th at halfway.
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2009 = 8 runner field with 3/1 joint
favourite Grand Zafeen winning for Mick Channon with the other joint favourite
a dual season winner for John Quinn on debut who finished third. Both of
those trainers have interesting representatives this year. The other 6
runners managed to produce 3 season seller winners including the runner-up
dividing the two better winners. Who gets seller winners dividing better
horses in early season? Of course, it would be Bill Turner (Anjomarba).
Draw 1 won from 6 & 4 with the first three 5th, 1st & 3rd through
halfway.
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To pull a few strands out of that you would
say that the fields tend to be unbalanced with a few (perhaps one) OR75+
fillies supported by a lot of little 'uns. The bigger, and more quality,
kit will get to the front by the finish and will be midfield or better
from early on with a ragged tail of underpowered ones adrift. If the better
types come from an obvious source like Mick Channon for Jaber Abdullah
the 'Market' will have a bit of a clue. If they come from irregular providers
of quality 2yos like John Wainwright & Richard Guest then it will be
helpless, Both their representatives were the biggest fillies in their
fields although you could perhaps argue about Clumber Place & Rosabee
(the Group placed developer).
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The Draw is a much lesser factor because
the large range in abilities on show reduces that to noise in the system.
To go back to the last year as an auction race in 2006 the first three
home in a 12 runner field were the only winners during the season. They
came from stalls 11-5-2 but that might only matter in shifting their relative
positions. They would have finished 1st-3rd, as a set, wherever you had
stuck them.
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Now, as with the 'Model' about how Richard
Hannon goes about debut runs, part of the value in having a template for
how things work is that you can tell, in advance when things might be different.
When pundits are wittering on about another Hannon winner and how they
are always 'In Good Form' this is just sloppy, and wrong. That trainer's
record this year is 10 runs, 9 on debut, for 7 FTO wins and a short-head
second. The only other debut runner was 5th as second string. In the last
five seasons Hannon's season total for debut wins has been 6-7-10-11-13
with the increase indicating an upswing in the total number of individual
runners while the FTO Strike Rate is at the typical level. Which means
he has had as many debut wins in 2010 in 9 attempts as he did in 2006 in
97. After My Son Max had won at Nottingham on Saturday and his owner was
being presented with a £10,000 cheque as part of the bonus scheme
you could see the logic. Owner, smile wider than his face and the 2yo fitter
and more forward than usual.
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Apply the "Pontefract Girls' Race" Model to
this year's race and it does not quite fit. The range of trainers represented
are a stronger set than normal and would make you wonder whether this was
a better set of fillies than usual. Often, these type of races never quite
live up to the Profile and some of those from bigger stables will prove
to be limited. But, they produce a profile with more midfield strength
and less chance of a long price surprise.
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We should start with Majestic Style
and a real pity that Dettori is riding. The Paddock Review from the Brocklesby
had her fingered as one of a couple of interesting types who finished in
the ruck with the OR60s, and worse, types. A solid size and an athletic
mover that was unlikely to be suited by softer going. Never showed at Doncaster
but that's fine if you think she might be an improver. The trainer does
not get strong debuts in early season but the first runner is often competitive.
Then a top jockey gets booked and will, presumably, mess with the SP. Draw
10 sounds negative but, as we have seen, this is not a problem in a mixed
ability set-up. Put a competent, but unfashionable, jockey on and a solid
each-way punt in one of those 'Empty' editions.
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Still of interest but what would be value
in this, slight better profile, version? A 'guessy' sort of 6-8/1? Realistically
there are only two-and-half other fillies on the Possibles list if we assume
a FTO win from a proven source. If 'Loch Jipp' is Lurking from an unproven
stable then the Paddock Reviewer will have to spot it.
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The other runner on her second outing is a
smaller model and should be lesser quality by season's end. Say OR64 versus
OR79-80 for Majestic Style. Be A Good Lady was tremendously stupid
on debut at Southwell in a fast race and 20 lengths, and more, adrift at
halfway. At which point you have mentally forgotten about her. Look at
the result and she finished 6th and a return to the race replay to see
how that happened. She had got onto the back of the group into the last
furlong and then plugged on to pick up some of the faders. This sort of
recovery is not typical and indicates some ability. The Review suggested
a usable OR60s type. Now, in one of those thin versions a fit and ready
OR64 type would get involved. BAGL has to prove she has wised up but interesting
to see if she can get prominent early from and inside draw. If she does
then could well hang around for a long time in the straight.
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With which we should move on to the Two-and-a-Half
and you can make it up how you like from Little Miss Take, Sapphire
Girl & Madam Markievicz. Tom Dascombe has not got off to
the 'Fast Start' he would have liked in his new stables but you presume
it will improve sooner rather than later. Unless he succumbs to the jinx
that often visits trainers employed by wealthy entrepreneurs. Football
attention span disorder. The latest debuts have done better and Coconut
Ice got involved in the leading line with Bathwick Bear & Arctic
Feeling going ok before hanging left, along with nearly everything else,
at Thirsk. Malpas Missile was second at Doncaster at 12/1 in a thin profile
race and Rowan Spirit got front rank at Nottingham.
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Kingscote is here to ride Little Miss Take
which increases the belief this one might be ok. Things go off a bit on
the pedigree side and appears to be owned by his wife. By a good sire
but out of a dam who was too slow for bumpers. Still, got to 19,000 guineas
at the sales and that cannot have been for the pedigree. Dascombe would
not have her here if she were useless. Drawn next to the rail and should
get prominent.
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Sapphire Girl is another debut for Richard
Fahey whose FTO record this year if 9 goes for 4 wins and two places. Only
1 of the nine has finished worse than 5th and he was second through halfway
in the Brocklesby and won second time out. Well short of Hannon but with
cheaper horses. This is another at only £6,500 but with a good 2yo
and a full sister to juveniles winners at different levels. Another of
those Fahey debuts a bit light on quality but ought to get involved on
competence and readiness.
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Madam Makievicz gets on the list in deference
to Michael Dods and his long-term profitability in supporting his debut
runners. He is a front loader but the FTO winners seem to start in May
these days. Go back to 2004-6 and it was April including winning the equivalent
race in 2005 with a cheap filly. His first runner this year was fit enough
but mentally adrift at Thirsk and looked like a lesser type getting going
as a marker horse for the others. This one a 10,000 guineas filly by new
sire Aussie Rules whose first runner did ok. Enough to be interesting but
this a strongish looking version.
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Which means half the field dealt with and
none of those were dismissable. Which is an indication of why this edition
feels solid because there are plenty of stories in the other five. Mick
Channon won it last year with Grand Zafeen for an important owner for the
stable. This year he runs Silca Conegliano for another, long term,
supporter of his stable in the Aldridges. Think of all those other 'Silca'
horses and most notably Group winner Golden Silca. At £55,000 she
is the most expensive and a half sister to a useful 5f 2yo for Tommy Stack.
By the sire Alhaarth who has a below average 2yo record but can get good
ones, like Awzaan. Channon does not train 'Pedigrees' so if she is here
he has seen enough to think she is ready to go.
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On Profile one of the best in the field in
the full term but will she be ready to win? Grand Zafeen could beat seller
types but the trainer was in better form and that was his fourth win of
the year. This season he has not had a success and he had two better fillies
run, on debut, last week for a third at Newmarket and a fourth at Doncaster.
Might just be plain too good if really good and the 'Market' might get
below 3/1 for that but not a full story for the stable yet in 2010.
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John Quinn had a very good record with 2yos
in 2009 with a high proportion of winners. He is a classic Front-Loader
and 2008 actually showed this better with 3 individual winners from 12
runners in the year. The two who won at less than 10 furlongs were
the first two to make their debuts. Last year he ran a solid filly in this
race as his first juvenile outing. She ran a good third and debut wins
are not typical for him. His runners will peak STO and this is normally
when to support them. Abidhabidubai is his first runner and just
a moderate to average pedigree. A certain future winner but should not
win this but look for promise for next time.
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Kevin Ryan is another trainer who has not
got his 2yos going yet. He does get odd debut winners in mid-April with
useful ones but nothing in his runners to date to indicate a high level
of readiness. Which means Geesala would have to be OR88+ to win.
A solid €33,000 but the pedigree looks to lack some zip for
5f. Callan is riding which is a good sign and means a greater likelihood
she is ok. The 'Market' would be interesting if she got under 5/1 but a
pass overall.
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The final two are less interesting but Tim
Easterby's debut runners this season have been a bit better than normal
overall. He won the usual Ripon maiden last week and a filly placed third
in the Doncaster maiden on Saturday. Perhaps that Doncaster race was really
thin but another 4th at Nottingham on the same day but in a, known, poor
race behind the front two. Lucky Tale has some interest because
sire Lucky Story has got precocious runners every season. The dam was one
of those endless 'Bollins' but an OR70+ sprint 2yo who might produce a usable
one. Probably finish 3rd to 5th if she is ok but unlikely to win.
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High Kickin runs for Alan McCabe and
despite his upbeat view on his 2yos pre-season the runners to date have
done no better than 6th. Presumably has some better ones lined up but good
FTOs are rare. A £5,000 one with a moderate pedigree has nothing
to alert you to something like that though.
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In summary, a good edition of the race which
should throw up a better set of later winners than typical even if a number
fail to match the hints of competitiveness. Majestic Style one to follow
although would prefer a flat track and a less tough field and Dettori may
well squeeze the value out of the SP. Be A Good Lady also an improver on
STO but at a lower level. Assuming the FTO winners would come from the
usual sources then options from Fahey, Dascombe & Dods. Sapphire Lady
just the preferred of that set. Hints of better class from Channon &
Ryan and the 'Market' helpful to some degree but neither trainer in form
to suggest a debut win here. Plenty of interest in the others for usable
types.
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The Windsor maiden seems thinner than
the Pontefract race overall and with a smaller range of possible winners.
Cocohatchee ran an interesting debut at Folkestone in a race which
fell apart with two experienced runners expiring early. Bajan Bullet did
not handle the going and hung and Saucy Buck was another Channon runner
to regress STO. But, like the Ffos Las race where Lady Brookie & Beach
Patrol 'failed', it may well have been that they were beaten by better
horses. Paddock Review of Beach Patrol at Nottingham put his debut 2nd
place and blow-out at Ffos Las into context. He is a smaller, weak fronted
type around OR62 and has a fizzy temperament that drifts quickly into being
sweaty and unfocussed. He did not really fail at Ffos Los he is not very
good and a poor second favourite there.
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Cape To Rio won the Folkestone race for Hannon
and is clearly a better one. Cocohatchee ran the rail throughout which
was an advantage but seemed to struggle to carry his size on the undulations
and got unbalanced at times. But, he never stopped and plugged on to the
finish while lacking the winners pace. Trainer Phelan has a moderate record
in turing debut promise into wins though. Overall, an average profile and
better suited to this flat track. Sets a standard which would not stop
a typical Hannon newcomer of the type we have seen in the last week.
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Unlike that colt B2yoR does not really believe
in Littleportnbrandy. She was entered in a seller which was abandoned
and then turned up in the maiden at this course last week as the second
string. A typical small type for the stable but ready to look after itself
on debut. In a race run at a strong pace thanks to her stablemate LPNB
got to a 5th, at a distance, through halfway and missing the pace. As the
front of the race stalled she plugged on to 3rd without having been in
the race. Probably a seller type and vulnerable to anything with a bit
of size. Could get outpaced in a race run at a usable pace where the front-runners
do not fold back into the midfield. A pass and her 3rd seemed a suspect,
alert point, for the overall form of the Windsor race.
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Trainer Evans runs Tagena on debut
and Tom Queally rides that while Gannon, on the third string here last
week, is on LPNB. Not obvious that Tagena would be a second string on that
with Gannon having to give way to various jockeys in the past few weeks
for the stable. She won on Dingle View at Doncaster but, after success
with Transfixed last year, she perhaps is preferred by that one's owner.
Tagena is going to be another smaller one as a €6,500 purchase but
could be LPNB standard. But, would need to be OR75+ to win here.
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To complete the story from the Maiden race
run here last Monday Silly Billy was one of a pair of Sylvester
Kirk reps. That trainer does not do strong debuts except with Group quality
horses after mid-summer. This one was the preferred but 25/1 compared to
Ad Vitam's 80/1. The pair ran contrasting races with SB getting going after
a slow start to be 8th at halfway. The jockey seemed to pack it in through
the last two furlongs and let him drift back to 14th. You presume he is
better than that and will run better here but would not be up to winning
this. One to check.
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Which sets the stage for what Hannon is up
to? He runs Bilko Pak just 5 days after debut where he ran ok at
Newmarket before fading late on. The trainer has a solid record with quick
returns so one to take seriously on that. The Market should be useful if
he is a shorter price than the newcomer Sir Rocky. He could then
be taken as not being the second string and allowing Ryan Moore to keep
the ride. He would then come up just behind Cocohatchee on profile.
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Now, Hughes is on Sir Rocky which would normally
mean the first string. Given the start by Hannon then you would have to
take him seriously on debut if he is the preferred. But, the pedigree just
seems wrong. The first runner for new sire Shirocco who was unraced as a juvenile and,
in line with his stout German breeding, was best at 12f. The dam won over
10f as a 3yo and is by stout influence Sadler's Wells although her female
side is a bit faster. If this one made it's debut over 8f in October you
would not be surprised.
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Mr Hannon, along with people like Channon
& Johnston take pride in being different enough to train the horse
and not the Pedigree. Mr Hannon had the only 5f 2yo winner by Mark Of Esteem
and has the same record with Montjeu. Both of those 5f winners were up
to Group class so they were winning at the minimum distance on ability
and not because they were suited to it. They improved their ratings over
longer distances. So, what is Sir Rocky? A high class one getting going
at 5f because he is the shape and type Hannon buys and has shown enough
to be ready? Or a small and moderate one getting going. Hannon cannot just
have good ones and the moderate ones will start to appear soon. The 'Market'
should tell us something useful if it is shorter than the stablemate and
gets to 9/4 or less if better quality.
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No real interest in the other three who are
all low Profile ratings from trainer who do not have a record of FTO winners.
Reginald Claude is more expensive than typical for the trainer so
at least see how he goes. Tedious runs for Andrew Reid and, presumably,
the latest in a long line of horses named after his personal traits. That
is why we have horses called Obstinate, Lethal, Confuzed, Certifiable,
Eccentric & Depressed kicking around. Self obsessed and narcissistic
would also be suitable. This one is from the 'Madness' naming line (not
one the Aga Khan or Cheveley Park has explored) with the dam being Manic
who was a sibling of Certifiable. Overall Andrew, 'Tedious' seems the most
apt name of all.
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In summary, Cocohatchee much preferred over
Littleportnbrandy and would not be surprised to see stablemate Tagena up
to her level. But, Cocohatchee from a stable that makes winning difficult
so not tremendously keen on supporting him. Sir Rocky is either very good
or a moderate one getting going and the Market should help to define that
and how he compares to Bilko Pak. If the Ryan Moore ridden one for Hannon
is actually the better one then a good opponent for Cocohatchee. Would
tend to pass up Sir Rocky on pedigree grounds if possible unless he is
very good. Oh, and Silly Billy must be better than the second half of the
race last week suggested.
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