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Three races today and two with solid looking
Richard Hannon newcomers in a season where he has changed the strategy
of, perhaps, 40 years. Remember that he has already had as many debut wins
this year as in the whole of 2006 & 2007 with nearly 100 individual
runners in each of those years. If you go looking for differences there
are other hints. This year's 10 runners have been more expensively purchased,
as a group average, than the first 11 last year despite a depressed market
(cheaper overall) in 2009. This year's group are a better set and have
included a very early debut for a owner bred juvenile for the Queen.
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Last year's first group of 11 included 5 that
never
won at 2yo and another that was let go in a claimer after an early
Auction race success. That was a typical make-up for his first ten, or
so, juveniles each year with a mix of weaker ones and diamonds like Monsieur
Chevalier mixed in. 7 of the 10 he has run this year won first go and another
won second time. The two who have not won were Royal Exchange (the royal
owner-bred) who was just pipped at Newbury and will win and Sir Rocky.
The latter has a peculiarly stout pedigree for a early 5f runner and started
at a shorter price than the Hannon STO winner in the Windsor race. He may
well be a useful 7f type and certainly not a 'Non Winner' profile. So the
ten this year to start his season all look like solid winners. Where is
the garbage?
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At a more arcane level here are the Halfway
positions of his first 10 runners in 2009 & then 2010 :-
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2009 = 8 - 3 - 9 - 8 - 4 -
7 - 11 - 13 - 4 - 2 - [9 - 12 - 11]
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2010 = 3 - 4 - 4 - 3 - 3 -
2 - 4 - 2 - 7 - 4
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The one 7th through halfway this year was
only 2 lengths off the lead behind a pressing Line-of-4 battle at the front
and won from the, softened up, favourite. Further evidence that 2010 are
a better group of horses and readier to compete. Remember that winners
in these 5f races, on straight courses, tend to be the leaders or those
in second rank if the front edge fades & folds. The Hannon horses have
managed to get to the stalking positions even though a number have been
a little slow at the break from the stalls.
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Which brings us to Bunce and the Hannon
rep at Leicester. A 65,000 guineas purchase and in the top ten most expensive
to run this year out of 220 horses. Running for a major owner for the yard
who gets more winners than 'nons' with his runners. So far this is another
of those better ones that compete to win FTO this year. By first season,
or Freshman, US sire in Good Reward who was not especially speedy and won
an 8f maiden at 2yo and was best over 8-10f in America on turf. The dam
was a Cheveley Park product who showed OR60 form in a couple of outings
over 6f at 3yo. Well related as a full sister to Infallible. Again, not
an obviously full-on 5f pedigree but enough quality to compete if he is
ready. A usable draw near the Stands' rail and a good profile given the
trainer background in 2010.
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A couple of other interesting debut horses
but the strongest opposition may come from the runners with previous experience.
Scarlet
Rocks has probably shown us most of what she can do and, as three seconds
tells you, she is vulnerable if running into anything with a bit more quality.
On debut she seemed second string to Bajan Bullet but was second from an
early stage pressing the lead. She faded notably late on in that race at
Lingfield. She has then run into two horses touted by their trainers as
the 'Fastest' they have at the early stages of the season.
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At Ffos Las she ran a very good race, away
from the rail and up with the pace which both seemed negatives, and only
gave way to stablemate Bathwick Bear when she stalled in the last half
furlong again. Similar story at Windsor were she led at a good pace that
stretched the field out notably. She was fading into the last furlong off
that pace and Hannon's Zebedee had to be held back to make his challenge
late on. Her fade allowed stablemate Littleportnbrandy to close up to her.
You would expect more of the same with a brisk Winston ride getting her
out to lead the centre track group.
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But, that late race fade is a negative and
you can easily imagine her stalling inside the final furlong and getting
run down by something. Leicester is an odd track in that it can produce
quite quick times despite an uphill climb from the dip at halfway to 1.5
furlongs out. The first part of the race is downhill to build up some momentum
but then you have to work to hold that uphill. Overall, rather look for
the 'Closer' in the final furlong than be watching Scarlet Rocks starting
to paddle and hoping she can hang on.
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Now, a general point about the race is that
the experienced horses are drawn together in the high stalls in the centre
of the course. Races here often develop down the centre anyway and the
rail running you see at many courses rarer. The stands' rail is actually
a steeper climb to the final furlong than the centre track because it is
banked up with the NH Chase course below it. If can watch Leicester races
where the stands' rail runners seem to stall a little to the last furlong
then stay on strongly inside it. You are watching them climb a higher hill
then get a bit of payback as they go down the far side. Interesting to
see how this plays out with Bunce drawn near to the Stands' rail but with
nothing around him proven to take him along. Either the 'Scarlet Rocks'
group will have to come to him or he might have to go and join it.
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Master Macho is drawn 15 and has shown
that he can attend the pace in both runs. On debut he was on he way to
the front rank at Kempton before letting stablemate Beach Patrol cut him
up. He was first string over that one who has proved limited and an indication
of how duff the Kempton event was in that he finished second. Master Macho
went to Beverley and pressed the pace in second in the faster division
of an Auction race. He stalled late on and the horse he had pressed went
on to win so the pace was usable. On Profile he might be up to an OR70
horse but another vulnerable to anything of normal Open Maiden class. Leicester
is less stiff a course than Beverley so he should hang on for longer here
but may well get dragged along by Scarlet Rocks. Might just scramble past
that filly late if she fades but, again, something, will be better.
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More general interest in Fahey's Mica Mika.
The egg-and-spoon race he ran in at Musselburgh was worthless as a bit
of form with the race run in a slow time and comfortably won by his stablemate
who was on STO. What we did learn that he is a good size but still a bit
daft and needing to learn. On the plus side he got himself organised late
on to produce a finish. He is drawn widest and you would think he can settle
second rank in centre track if he has the basic pace. Probably has the
size to be keeping on late. Quality something to check on the day but on
the possibles list.
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If we drop back into 'Pointless Punditry'
mode then Belle Bayardo "went into lots of notebooks" for
his effort at Kempton on STO. Around twelve lengths off the lead at halfway
he seemed to make a strong finish to be a, going on, third at one length
back. He seemed the biggest in the group but that was a poor Auction race
and OR50s form in the long run. So, we have a horse that is bigger than
the rabbits but got left 12 lengths behind by them as they steamed off
and managed to get back to them after they had blown themselves out. Terrific,
scribble that out, would you. The trainer has a poor record with 2yos that
he has prepared himself, as opposed to claims from other stables. Check
him on the day but not even on the Possibles list on profile.
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The three most interesting newcomers are Addock
And Egg, Drawing Board & Royal Opera. The first two
might be troublesome at the front of the race on the day and the other
more of a STO set-up if the trainer carries on his recent methods. Addock
And Egg is drawn wide with the pace types and appears the Dascombe first
string with Jim Crowley riding and Richard Smith on Press Release.
The trainer has not had a 2yo winner yet but the indications are that he
is getting into form after a slow start. Three places from his last four
debuts although none have really threatened to win. But, we should be wary
because the better ones he has will compete strongly on his FTO strike
rate in 2009.
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AAE is a £16,000 but by sire Danbird
who has a poor start in 2009 but has already had a debut win this year.
The dam has produced a couple of 5f 2yo winners ranging from Listed class
Tabaret to an OR70 one. The Market proved of some use with the Dascombe
horses in 2009 with 5/1 and under a rough benchmark for a better one. This
one has the profile of a certain future winner but would need Bunce to
be a moderate debut to win here. If the Hannon horse failed and Scarlet
Rocks goes too quick and fades then a middling newcomer can win this.
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We saw at Pontefract on Monday what sort of
quality is needed for Kevin Ryan to have a debut winner this early in a
solid race with Geesala's front running effort. She is presumably and OR85
type and Drawing Board would probably have to be similar to win
FTO here. Worth noting that he is owned by John Fretwell who likes his
2yo winners and often punts them. This reputation can produce 'Phantom'
shortening in the Market which he may, or may not, have any connection
to. For reference here are the details of the debuts of the Fretwell horses
in 2009 in date order (the first two are Ryan trainer & the others
Ed McMahon) :-
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Out The Ring - 2nd at 9/4f (Still
a maiden)
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Masked Dance - 4th at 3/1 (Seller
winner)
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Military Call - 4th at 8/1 (Won
Nursery 4TO off OR67)
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Aalsmeer - 3rd at 9/4 (Supported, maiden
but Listed placed and OR80s)
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Reeds Bay - 3rd at 20/1 (Won 3TO)
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Gwynedd - 2nd at 8/1 (Won STO)
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Revoltinthedesert - 6th at 14/1
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Court Gown - 2nd at 14/1 (Won
STO)
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Final Answer - 1st at 7/2
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Sternlight - 8th at 20/1 (Placer)
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Fear Nothing - 6th at 11/2 (Placer)
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Some strands you might suggest out of that.
The earliest runners are lesser types and 'marker' horses and not the best
he has. But, note the Ryan & McMahon split in 2009. Mr Fretwell does
not like going to watch educational debuts in the ruck. They can't all
win FTO but he wants them to be ready to place if the ability is there.
The latest debuts will often be limited types. The SPs are of mixed use
in spotting what sort of horse you are dealing with. Final Answer &
Aalsmeer were both better types that got punted in a way that suggested
they probably were. But, the two early runners for Ryan got to low prices
on reputation of the connections rather than ability. The longer priced
McMahon debuts could include some pretty good ones. Mr McMahon has featured
in the FTO P&L Tracking in the past and had been profitable to follow
in patches.
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So, you are Leicester, Fretwell and entourage
are there and looking businesslike. Are they here to punt Drawing Board
or just interested to see how he goes because they have two or three better
somewhere? Will the Market help? Knowing this stuff is useful background
but you have to trust the Paddock Guy on the day. On Profile this one is
similar to Military Call at Nottingham in April last year and an ok lower
OR70s one to test the water. A £20,000 purchase by Pastoral Pursuits
who made a good job of his first season last year including an early 5f
winner fro Ryan. The dam was poor and slow so a mixed story. On the plus
side jockey Mullen is here as Fretwell's man but he was on Military Call
too.
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Rod Millman used to be a notable '2yo Trainer'
and made his name in that way to a large extent. 2005 saw a peak for him
with the highest number of individual winners and a near 30% FTO strike
rate. What has happened in the last four seasons as his record has deteriorated?
Overall Strike Rates at a moderate 4-7% and no FTO winner since March 2006.
Only four individual winners from 26 horses in the last two years (2008-9).
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2005 saw him as the Text Book winner front-loader
and he still shows hints of this. In 2009 he started with a tiny filly
there was no point waiting with and then his best horse in mid-April. This
year he has only run the poor profile filly Rosina Grey who was unplaced
at Ffos Las. Royal Opera looks a different prospect and could well
be the first ok one he has to run and perhaps the best he has. Expensive
for the trainer at £23,000 although, as a down note, he is 0-10 with
more expensive ones in the last few years. But by a solid sire in Acclamation
and out of an Irish dam who rated OR90 at her best. But, as the record
tells you, the debuts tend not to be competitive now and STO is when to
catch them.
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After that you are into the lower profiles
and unlikely strong debut sources. Worth noting a few points about them.
Trainer Jamie Osborne reached an even higher peak than Millman back in
2003 but in has been mostly downhill since other than a good 2007. The
dispersal of the Mountgrange Stud horses in 2009 also meant he lost his
base and had to change stables. Commercial is his first runner this
year and he started last year with some weak ones before a FTO winner for
this owner. The pedigree might produce a minor winner but not enough quality
to win FTO on Profile.
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Stuart Kittow has his first runner with May
Be Some Time and a small stable to take seriously overall. Regular
winners each year from a handful of runners and 14% (Hannon level) Strike
Rate in the last three years. No strong pattern in when he runs horses
in Winner to Non-Winner terms but strong debuts quite common including
two FTO wins. This one a cheaper runner by Iceman who has not had a winner
yet and the best sibling ran for the trainer so he is going back to a known
source. One to check but another light in Profile to win on the day.
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Fred Willetts looks the second string
to Scarlet Rocks and note that Gannon is being Winston in the Evans' ranking
here. And finally, Tim Easterby won his favourite April maiden at Ripon
with one his family bred and he runs another here with Guinea Seeker.
Cheaply retained at the sales and unlikely to be another Cocktail Charlie.
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In summary, Scarlet Rocks comes across
as a solid type who does not quite get 5f and will get enough pressure
here to push her over her edge. Betting on short runners not a pretty sight
normally anyway. Hannon's 2010 approach means that Bunce is an obvious
strong opponent although drawn away from the action. If he gets second
rank early settled then he would probably win. But, value would probably
be 3/1 or up. No real interest in Master Macho who looks the lack the quality
and Belle Bayardo from an unproven source and with worse form. More interest
in the each-way prospects of Mica Mika & Addock And Egg. A pass on
Drawing Board unless the confidence seems very strong indicating an OR88+
one and check Royal Opera for Open Maiden class.
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The Haydock Maiden Fillies' race lacks
the structure to that the Leicester has. Here we have a Hannon newcomer
clear on Profile despite being a lesser type than Bunce overall. The lack
of opponents with strong form adds to the feeling that we have an open
race unless Inagh River is another Hannon winner. The feeling is
helped by the fact that those with bits of form are drawn, as a pair, next
to the Stands' rail. If those two got away together and there was some
cluelessness from the newcomers drawn wider then they could struggle to
overhaul them.
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Look back through the last four runnings of
the race and the same pattern is always there. A useful type will win FTO
but the fields behind, two very large, will probably be empty of any later
winners above seller level unless trainers like Channon & Kevin Ryan
are involved. Which is a problem for this race because the trainers involved
outside of the Hannon rep are the types that have filled the race with
season non-winners recently.
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Last year a 14 runner field saw a clear win
for low OR70s Eternal Instinct from, peculiarly shaped, OR60s My Mandy
(who eventually won as a 3yo). Other than the Fretwell filly Aalsmeer in
3rd you were then into the real Garbage. The two winners before that were
Maggie Lou (the Ryan equivalent to Geesala in 2008) and Janina (for Barry
Hills and a later Listed winner). Alert in place for an unbalanced field
and unless Inagh River is an OR80+ type, or a surprise from an irregular
source, then an OR70 filly could win this from some moderate ability girls.
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The Hannon 2010 story is covered above so
how strong does Inagh River look on Profile? Just ok, would be the answer
and probably OR75-80. £20,000 purchase by a good speed sire in Fasliyev
out of a speedy mare at OR60s level who has not produced much in 5 previous
foals. If this one is out early for Hannon this year she should be up to
that profile which means top on profile but at a low level.
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B2yoR has some interest in Roodee Queen
who runs for the third time here. She would be a slightly better physical
type than My Mandy who finished second here last year, for example, but
has not shown that one's racecraft. Blew the break on debut and made a
solid mid race move into a stiff pace before fading early. Travelled well
in a Beverley race next time that had a solid pace and if she had been
able to make an effort in later race would have placed. She went from travelling
ok to stalling without any obvious intermediate stage though (thinking
back the horse Yeah does the same thing for the same connections). She
perhaps did not stay at Beverley and has an easier course here and can
travel with the pace. If you took last year as a model then an OR67 Roodee
Queen stalking Hoppy's Flyer on the rail would place if she could
see the race out.
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Hoppy's Flyer is a Dascombe STO that was anonymous
in midfield at Ripon in a low race and given an easy time. But 12/1 in
a weak race and Richard Smith riding that day (and here) did not suggest
a better one. But, drawn against the rail and presumably with the remit
to go-for-it today and probably lead, if she can, then might hang around
for some time. Dascombe has another runner with My Mate Al and probably
a second string. A weak profile and a non-stable attached jockey suggest
a makeweight.
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You are then into shuffling the others around
to see if any of them might be OR70+ and competitive against the normal
substance of this race. A couple of them are expensive for their stables
in Alensgrove & Bon Appetit. The first is a 26,000 retained
filly running for her owner breeder and Paul Midgley. By new sire Byron
out of an OR80s 6f dam who has produced 7f+ winners. That price was higher
than Byron's 10,000gns average so could be an ok type. The trainer's record
with horses that cost more than 5,000 guineas is one winner from 15 horses.
He has produced 12 winners from 42 very cheap horses below 5,000 in the
same period. Not sure what you do with that.
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Anyway, trainer had not had a strong debut
in 2010 and had just one placed FTO (in a 7 runner seller) in 2009 from
20 horses. In 2008 he did get a couple of FTO wins with OR75+ fillies but
that seems to have changed since then. In summary, a Profile that could
produce the OR75 type that could compete but the trainer does not seem
to do strong debuts now. But, a trainer who seems to get the winners he
should. Well, at least with the Bargain Basement types.
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Nigel Tinkler has Bon Appetit and her €50,000
tag would be very high for the trainer. He has a moderate record with 2yos
and does not convince, unlike Midgely, that he going anywhere in terms
of learning and improving it. His record with horses costing more than
10,000 guineas since 2005 is 1 winner from 17 individual 2yos. Why do these
trainers struggle with the dearer kit? He has his best record with the
ones between 5,000 to 10,000 guineas. This one is by a good speed sire
out of an unraced dam so limited information. The trainer gets odd placed
FTOs at long prices but his only debut win in the last 10 years has been
by overpowering Rabbits in a claimer with an OR70+ filly.
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Which means that either of those two with
Hannon or Dascombe and you would be interested but the trainers remove
that. David Nicholls runs Dolly Parton and his first runner of the
year won a seller on debut and he does have a record of getting FTO successes.
A moderate pedigree although by a good 2yo sire in Tagula. In a race this
thin she might compete.
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A win by the others would be a surprise although
they might only need to be OR72+ to do it if well prepared. Sarojini
was bred y the Dixon's and is trained for a partnership by their salaried
trainer James Glover. He took a break from training so his last debut win
goes back to 2001. More likely to be a development run but a perfectly
believable 5f winner of some sort on pedigree. Alan Bailey has not show
us a good filly this year that could win FTO to the point you suspect he
may not have one. Turn The Tide has a moderate pedigree and
not really a 5f one. The trainer has got FTO wins recently but this one
looks too lightweight. Dark Times & Magic Stella both
have limited quality pedigrees and run for trainer who get odd FTO wins
but in unpredictable manners (to them as well). On balance more likely
to be the non-winning girls that normally fill out the race.
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In summary, a weak looking race on Profile
and in line with the, mostly, empty record of the race in recent years
aside form the odd OR80+ filly. Inagh River will probably end up favourite
but unappealing as a stronger debut. The rest are unappealing and a surprise
newcomer from proven sources (to some extent) would be quite long but with
Dolly Parton & Alensgrove out in front. The kind of set-up to draw
you into not giving up on Roodee Queen.
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The Ripon Fillies' race is an Auction
event rather than an open maiden off level weights. The nine runner field
are split as seven off a the bottom weight of 8-4 indicating they
have been allowed 8lbs off for costing £6,000 or less. Topweight
Coconut Ice cost £20,000 (£5,000 less than the upper limit)
and has only 2lbs allowed so gives 6lbs to the 7 bottom weights. Molly
Mylenis cost a princessly £6,500, just above the lower cut-off,
so has to give 2lbs to the bottom set. Which tells you we have a low quality
race populated by fillies from the cheap end of the qualifiers for the
most part. Hmmm. Five of the runners have apprentices on as if the weight
allowances were not enough.
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The race has seven fillies with experience
and the two newcomers look to be very unlikely winners which removes Nellie
Ellis & Vienna Woods from the list. Losing Draw was
one of a number tenderly handled in the earlier Maiden at the course but
showed very little so also goes. Meandmyshadow was very competent
in that race and one of a set of solid debuts by poor profile runners this
year. That second place owed a lot to running straight along the rail and
plugging on past stallers. Even then it is poor form in a slow time and
you suspect she has little improvement. poor value and goes.
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Similar feelings about Glenns Princess
in that she made a moderate debut for Richard Fahey at a time when his
2yos were ready to go. Well drawn but unable to keep up in the slower Division
of a moderate Beverley race before a bit of late response. This is Likely
to be a faster race and no real interest. Reel Amber gave a nutcase
performance before the other Division losing her jockey to the start and
then proving difficult to steer when he got back on. Beaten miles and no
interest.
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Which means the winner ought to come from
Coconut Ice, Molly Mylenis or Lady Morganna. Here are the first two of
those pictured below:-
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The two pictures are taken from notably different
distances from the horse so slightly disguise the relative heights. Coconut
Ice, the chestnut on the left, is the taller, rangier filly. Molly Mylenis
is the short, small and compact type that David Evans' buys. Little Libretto
is the same thing and you could line up a raft of Evans' 2yos that looked
the same. Some of these smaller ones will prove able to compete early but
their lack of range will limit what they can achieve in the long run and
over what distance. If you went looking for positives in Molly she is quite
strong behind for her size while the front shoulder and neck look weaker
and a scratchy mover you would think.
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B2yoR has though a bit about what types Dascombe
buys since he does his own choosing and has a very good record of picking
usable ones and winners. Coconut Ice would be a reasonable example of how
he likes rangy movers in fillies and will put up with some lack of build.
She is actually a bit narrow through the body and very different from all
those deep chested and broader types Hannon buys, for example.
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Coconut Ice was an early entry for the trainer
but did not run until last week in the Thirsk Novice behind Bathwick Bear.
She showed good natural pace to be up with Bathwick Bear and Arctic Feeling
from early on and second through halfway. She got outpaced by that pair
as they pulled clear and she rolled left. But, she did not crack and plugged
on well enough for third. So long as she handles the Ripon undulations
she should be fast enough and good enough to win this race you would think.
Given she could be running at Haydock or Leicester you presume that she
is in this lesser race with the stable's apprentice riding (not a negative)
because they want to ensure a win and the others they have running today
look limited.
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Molly Mylenis has run two similar races on
heavy and you would need a lot of convincing she will have the pace
for 5f on GF going. In both races the best furlong she has run has been
the last one as she plugged on through the others like a stayer. She would
probably have won at Leicester but for being carried across the track but
a slow race and poor form. She wears visor today and her demeanour in previous
races would not make this a surprise. The picture shows a bit of the lethargic,
self contained, attitude she has and on debut she added a reluctance to
push on into the race and being a little worried by the stalls and the
other horses. The visor is presumably to galvanise her and she is going
to need it to not get behind here.
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Cocounut Ice should be able to beat Molly
Mylenis at the weights in the conditions although if you back the Evans
filly you may well have a bit of last furlong 'Tortoise closing onto Hare'
to keep your interest.
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The other possible to get involved for the
win is Lady Morganna for Gaye Kelleway. The filly represents the
first test of the strength of the Newmarket fillies' race run at the Craven
Meeting. She ran an anonymous race in midfield from a wide draw and racing
centre track away from the action. If that race was as strong as it often
is then moderate improvement would see her able to place here and the trainer
does tend to get Peak STO runs. But, a moderate pedigree and probably less
ability than Coconut Ice.
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In summary, Coconut Ice is going to wins this,
surely. Lots of little ones you do not really believe in make up the opposition.
The best of those in Molly Mylenis seems unlikely to be suited by a faster
5f although has shown some real staying ability in her races.
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