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The Windsor Fillies' race is another
Auction event limited to those that cost £25,000 or less apart from
an odd subtlety. Compared to the one at Ripon on Saturday it has a bit
more depth with less of the field running off bottomweight. The three topweights
here include two from Richard Hannon to continue the theme that he is the
most well monetarily endowed stable we have seen in action so far. With
the NH season finally having 'closed' having had three different sets of
Championship races run at different courses this is probably due to change.
The stables that see the 'Guineas Weekend' as a startpoint should be coming
on-line to increase the sources of better juveniles. There will be hints
of this on Tuesday with Bryan Meehan & Mark Johnston running their
first reps at Nottingham. Johnston runs one that cost 190,000 guineas as
his lightweight 'marker' horse to get going. Terrific.
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Now, this race has been won in each of the
last three years by a filly on her second run having finished unplaced
at Newmarket in mid-April. Other than 2008 those with presentable previous
runs have won from moderate fields with only hints of OR70s quality fillies
and often those managed OR70+ ratings for the BHA guy inflating early season
ratings. The exceptions in 2008 were two from Richard Hannon which included
a, late season, improver in Souters Sister who won at Group 3 level having
been second string at 25/1 in this event and well beaten. The other Hannon
filly was Daddy's Gift who has proved a solid OR80s handicapper in her
career. That race also included a late OR80s filly in Fazbee as Paul D'Arcy's
best 2yo of the year.
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In this race we only have Style And Panache
to stop this race being an unseemly bit of handbags between some variously
well prepared newcomers. Her two runs suggest she is better than at least
two of the previous winners of this and perhaps the best of them over 5f.
She ran a very good debut at Southwell behind Arctic Feeling who broke
the course record in very helpful conditions. That race was over-rated
by B2yoR by 10-15 points but even so was a strong debut. She was first
string of three Evans runners at Nottingham next time but could not handle
the heavy going and was visibly slipping & sliding from an early stage.
The trainer said the 'Wrong One' had won and jockey Spencer lodged a report
with the Stewards saying the horse had not handled the going.
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If you discount that run she has a solid profile
to set too strong a standard here for anything except the best level of
Hannon FTO we have seen this year. She is not a sturdy type and is unlikely
to develop through the season but be fast enough here and appeared to stay
5f ok on both runs. She is drawn wide but we have already seen this year
with an Evans filly (the pace forcing Scarlet Rocks) that this will not
stop one getting front rank and involved. The issue is more over-racing
that being drawn wide.
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Which brings us to the the three Hannon runners
with The Sydney Arms, Eucharist & Two Feet Of Snow
(good if she had two white socks with that name). They are ridden by Hughes,
Moore and McDonald with the last of those the regular 'lightweight' jockey
with this one off 8-4. Hughes tends to ride the first string but when Moore
is involved in these sort of races that could actually mean they are of
similar quality and the Moore one might do better at times. When Hannon
is in normal mode and not having many debut wins this is less of
a problem. This year it has been more important in the early stages of
the year.
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But, the last few debuts for the trainer have
indicated that he has run out of better class naturals that will win FTO.
The quality of opposition is going up a little as well. Remember that 7
of the first 9 debuts won plus one beaten a neck and another beaten as
second string that won STO. The last four to start out over the last week
have finished in the 4th to 8th range and been either too green to get
involved or have not seen the full 5f out (typical in previous years).
They have been at SPs between evens to 9/4 to show how the 'Market' lags
behind reality along with the other problems it has in knowing what is
going on.
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The preview for last year was a long consideration
of this race and the types of fillies trainers run in it and is a recommended
read. It included a Virtual
Paddock of the horses Hannon had run in it in 2006 -8 which is linked
to. He had run 5 fillies in the race in those years for two thirds. Last
year the two fillies finished 5th at 3/1 (later winner) and 9th at 12/1
(non-winner). Which gives a template for his runners in the race. A mix
of types that do not win FTO and often will not even be 5f fillies. Which
means a difficult choice for today. Leave out the rocket start to the season
and you would cheerfully avoid the Hannon fillies unless the vibes said
one was close to his best 5f filly. Despite the recent dip in FTO efforts
one of this trio might be.
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The Sydney Arms is by a sire that can get
5f winners around the end of April out of a dam who was produced winners
at various distances. Since she is the Hughes ride she should be the only
likely high class sprinter capable of winning. If she is good then 5/2
and less and perhaps challenging SAP for favouritism might be a benchmark.
She would get to 3/1 just by being a Hannon filly in the first at Windsor
and "All his juveniles are winning..." and so forth. Eucharist has
a mixed pedigree and looks more like a peak STO type and may not even be
OR70. TFOS should be a makeweight and may well not be up to winning during
the turf season on past types that started in this race.
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So, unless The Sydney Arms is very good the
only fillies that seem likely to have any chance to win on profile are Atia
& Electric Waves. The first of those runs for Johnny Portman
and this - Virtual
Paddock - links to his runners in the race in 2006-8. That was 8th-4th-4th
with three little 'uns in those years and he improved to 3rd in 2009 with
Existentialist at 28/1. That filly was a size or two bigger than the earlier
rabbits. Atia is joint topweight and the most expensive in the field so
should be more like the 2009 filly than the rabbits. That may not be the
case given that she is a full sister to a US Grade 3 winner so being retained
for 19,000 guineas might indicate she is smaller since the pedigree should
get her to close to that level.
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But, Mr Portman has changed in the last few
years from a slow developer with racing and 3-4TO peaks with 2yos. He now
gets debut winners in April although normally at Newbury with, very fit,
better ones. The 'Market' does not take him seriously so an SP between
12/1 to 28/1 actually indicates a competitive one. An interesting each-way
prospect unless the Paddock Review shows a rabbit and the topweight price
just pedigree related.
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Electric Waves continues the John Fretwell
thoughts. His first runner this year was Drawing Board who won on Saturday
FTO in a wild race at Leicester where the pacemakers killed their own chances.
This one is trained by Ed McMahon rather than Kevin Ryan but remember that
we should expect this one to make the first 4 in this race. This filly
has just a moderate to average pedigree and not obviously up to competing
with Style And Panache.
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After that set you are into some weaker Profiles
and difficult to choose anything to compete to win unless the Paddock Review
shows something startling. Ventose represents Mick Channon who has
not had a 2yo winner yet. A slow pedigree for this 5f start and nothing
to make you think she might surprise. Willie Muir has his first runner
with Melodize and he does tend to run competitive ones first. But,
that means they will win in time. He has only had one winner before late
May in recent years and the stable takes time to come to form. The early
runners will develop from the first run. The FTO winners the stable have
usually come after mid-summer.
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A vague Lurker with Shesanindan for
Tony Carroll but you have to go back a long way to find strong debuts for
the trainer. On the other side you would say that most of the recent runners
have been poor so duff FTO runs what you would expect. His last season
winner was placed on debut but that was in later season. This one is expensive
by the stable standards and has a solid enough pedigree at this level.
Not a full story but one to check even if early season seems to rule out
any record for a strong debut for the trainer.
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Sylvester Kirk runs three and you would guess
that Dress Up is the best of them. However, debut wins are rare
and 'Lost' efforts first time more common. Difficult to see any of them
being competitive.
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In summary, Style And Panache presents
a very strong Profile and STO winners in this race are typical. The opposition
for the day does not look strong unless The Sydney Arms is close to being
the best of the Hannon sprint fillies. Atia should compete well as long
as she is not a rabbit and Electric Waves the other to compete for the
first four places.
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