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A good looking maiden at Nottingham
with newcomers from two important and large stables and another from Marco
Botti. Last year's race had eight horses declared and all of them won during
the season including a couple who placed in Listed or Group races. The
strongest runners in Profile are those on first outings but it is worth
considering the two on their second runs to set the standard to be reached.
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Just For Leo seems the first string
for David Evans with apprentice Heffernan riding and Gannon on newcomer
Torteval. JFL was cheaply bought and ran a typical debut for the
stable. Another small and compact one and limited on that but competent
on the initial run at Ripon. He managed to get across from a wide draw
at Ripon and led the field through halfway two wide of the rail in a Line-of-3
that forced a stiff pace. Headed inside two furlongs out and then fading
notably in the last furlong. That race was run in a slow time and looked
poor form. A win by the third and a place by one of the well beaten runners
over the weekend made it look a better race. But, you could question the
quality of both of the later races. JFL is drawn widest here with the stalls
on the stands' side so has the same problem he had at Ripon to get involved.
A competent lower OR60s type perhaps and should struggle with the bigger
ones here.
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Kevin Ryan's Surely This Time ran a
similar race at Beverley to show enough pace from a good draw to be just
behind the pacemakers at halfway. He made a small forward effort inside
the last two furlongs but then faded badly in the last furlong. He finished
with some poor horses and the trainer used the Beverley races in 2009 to
start some OR60s types in. Well drawn again here and on an easier track.
He appeals as one that should improve more than JFL and might place but
still not setting an OR70+ standard.
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Onto the daily pondering over what is going
on with the Hannon debuts this year. It was so much easier when you could
just ignore them apart from some specific windows. Perhaps Hannon senior
'retiring', as the ATR titles keep telling us has happened, is responsible
for the change. After a patch of four FTOs beaten in a week his preferred,
of three, won at Windsor yesterday as a strongly supported 11/10 favourite.
But that is still a record of one from seven recently overall and you presume
The Sydney Arms is close to his best sprint filly. In that Windsor race
the Sylvester Kirk filly Dress Up showed the advantage of running the rail
throughout but seemed an almost ridiculously good FTO effort by the trainer's
standards.
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Although you might say that the 'Market' for
The Sydney Arms told you this was a good one it is a bit more complicated
than back. Barking looked pretty moderate at Bath on Sunday and was evens
favourite. Roche Des Vents is the stable rep here and Hughes is
here to ride him. Not that well drawn in 3 and with a couple of better
profile opponents of the type that have been missing in many of the stable's
debut wins to date in 2010. This one only cost £15,000 and by a solid
2yo sire out of an OR70s dam that the Hannon stable trained and ran at
Goodwood with Hughes aboard. Overall, just an average profile and not the
obviously better sort. What would the 'Market' get to if it is another
of his best 5f types? Probably under 2/1 in this stronger group.
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At which point in most Previews this season
there is not much else to say once you have thought about whether the Hannon
newcomer can deal with whatever Evans is running. Here we have a fuller
story, thankfully. Mark Johnston has his first runner of the year with
the filly Evening Dress. She cost a hefty 190,000 guineas which
you presume had more to do with her physical set-up than her pedigree.
She is a sibling of an Irish Listed winner and last year's runner was a
placed 2yo in Britain but nothing to warrant that quantity of bunce. The
sire Medicean gets winners from 5f upwards but those that can win at 5-6f
contain a high number of useful types. Tossing around names like Nannina,
Dutch Art, Laahig, Blue Maiden and Jira would make the point. Which is
nearly all the 'sprint' winning 2yos he has had.
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If you look at Mr Johnston's record then it
varies somewhat from year to year. The April debuts have been a mix of
types in recent years but have included a lot of arab owned ones who have
varied from OR70 eternal placers through to useful types. The FTO strike rate in April
is only 4 from 36 but that sounds better at 11% which is above the overall
average and in line the the trainer's season rate. Go back to 2003 and
he won the equivalent of this race with a debut filly called Attraction.
Whatever happened to her? Last year he ran a couple of duff ones in early
season then a batch of better ones starting around this period. This set
included a debut winner and the useful filly The Hermitage second FTO as
favourite.
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Going back to the Medicean and sprint wins
point it is worth noting that 5f debuts for this owner have normally been
useful types. A strong profile and the sort that could produce a debut
winner. The 'Market' is of moderate to average use with Johnston debuts.
The large majority start at 7/1 or less with little differentiation below
that level between the horse's quality and readiness. The debut winners
were spread across that entire range in 2009, for example. Let us hope
she lives up to the Profile in the flesh.
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Bryan Meehan worked for Hannon many years
ago and started his career with a 2yo focussed yard. The days of him having
Brocklesby runners are gone and in recent years the March runners disappeared
and then the April runners diminished until there were none in 2009. An
indication of how the quality of his yard had increased to the point where
cheaper, precocious, 5f runners are gone. Look back to the last two years
and the first two juveniles to run each year have been OR84+ and some his
best sprint 2yos. In 2008 they were dual winner Klynch and Listed winner
Light The Fire. Last year his first runner was Radiohead, whom Spencer
managed to get beaten on debut, followed by Rakaan who placed in the Coventry
Stakes but struggled to win a maiden.
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Now, none of those won and the really high
class one started at Newmarket which is typical for the trainer. He has
one entry for the race at Newmarket on Sunday which Radiohead ran in (Black
Moth). Debut wins for the trainer are even rarer than Hannon & Channon
and unless he has changed his style completely Angle Knight would
be an unlikely winner. But, he ought to be a useful sprint 2yo in the longer
term. He is by the US sire Arch who has a very good record with 2yos in
Britain but not with 5f wins. The dam produced an 8f juvenile winner to
a slightly faster sire last year. Two of the previous foals have attracted
very high prices at the sales to produce just a maiden winner. This one
appears to still be breeder owned. On Profile an OR80+ 2yo that would need
the debut in readiness terms. Would not cope with an OR70 type kicking
off for Hannon in his form this year with FTO runners.
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Of the others you presume you can dismiss Till Dawn as a Tony Carroll
2yo with his first runner this being well beaten to add to his overall
moderate record. Key To The Motion is another cheap one for Paul
Midgley and none of the 10 debuts to date have been competitive. Another
comfortable pass. What about the Evans second string Torteval? By
a solid sire in Camacho but out of a slow dam who has produced older winners.
Too slow on the female side. If you look at Evans' debuts by date order
over the years then the best 2yos he has tend to be in the early runners
by mid-April. Season winners that start out after that tend to be rare
and even less common if you discount the ones that win at 7f or further.
If you look at his debuts this year then the winners and placers so far
fit that model. Try looking at the list and remember that Bathwick Bear
would have run in the Brocklesby but for the soft going.
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Some slightly more interesting debuts with the other two. In robotic Pundit
world the mention of Marco Botti has them swooning and telling us what
a great trainer he is and one of the next generation of stars. His initial
season had some good signs and B2yoR and that point had him down as someone
to watch and take seriously amongst the newer trainers. His development
in the last two years has stalled, at best, with no real progress with
his 2yo handling record.
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The overall Strike Rate with 2yos has bounced around and down to a moderate
7.5% last year when he had his largest number of runners. The FTO Strike
Rate in his four seasons has gone 25%-15%-0%-4% and indicates that his
debut runners are much less fit and competent than they were when he started
out. A few examples of struggling to win with promising types as well and
two fizzy speedballs in Tiradito & Lady Royal Oak that he did not sort
out. The record of a young trainer still learning his job as he gets different
types of horses and also has to deal with a growing family.
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Leiba Leiba is a cheaply retained filly for Dachel Stud by new sire
Little Libretto. The dam has produced an April 5f debut winner in Tia Mia
so just a hint this one might have something even if a little small. But
the trainer's debut record suggests more a little 'un getting going.
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Which leaves Orientalist for Eve Johnson-Houghton who has had one
debut win her three years with a licence having taken over her father's
stable. That success was by Group quality The Cheka. Odd places for FTO
runners with precocious types or in weak races. Her first runner this year
was second at 16/1 but in a suspect slow race to make the point. This one
is a 14,000 guineas purchase by sire Haafhd who has only had a couple of
5f wins in his career. The dam is reasonably speedy but limited quality.
Overall, a set-up run for the STO peak and see how he looks in the pre-race
for the future.
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In summary, at last, we are seeing some other bigger stables getting
going. Since they are starting at the normal times you presume they will
not have changed their approach in 2010 as Mr Hannon has. The two on STO
looked limited but a niggle that Surely This Time is actually a fair bit
better than he appears and an important bit of Paddock Review. Hannon's
Roche Des Vents is going to be at a valueless price unless he is another
high class one. On balance that is unlikely. Most interested in the filly
Evening Dress for the day and probably for the future as well. Does she
look ready enough, and that good, to win here. Angle Knight should be a
future OR80+ type but would typically place here at best off a normal Meehan
prep.
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