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Three non-runners already in the Newmarket
Maiden with Black Moth, Ocean Bay & Old Master Expert succumbing
to leg, blood & growth issues. Like trying to get an Italian sports
car to work for two days in a row in the 1970s. The first two of those
would have been strong contenders to compete to place and the other might
be Group class so real losses for the overall strength of the test. But,
still an informative race with the first runners of the year, in Britain,
for Godolphin and Coolmore.
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Aiden O'Brien will run a lot of 2yos in Britain
but the large majority will be in Group and Listed races from Royal Ascot
onwards. He will run a small number in maidens before the Royal meeting
usually at Newmarket, York in mid-May or Newbury. They are usually above
average and can include some of his best as the list below, of pre-Royal
Ascot, maiden runners shows.
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2005 = George Washington 3rd in this
race on debut, Marcus Andronicus a FTO winner at York & Ivan
Denisovich 2nd FTO at Newbury. All started favourite.
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2006 = Abraham Lincoln 2nd at York
on his second outing as odds-on favourite.
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2007 = Achilles Of Troy won
this race on his second run, Greek Mythology 3rd on debut at Newbury.
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2008 = Four Star General unplaced at
York on second outing at 3/1,
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2009 = Beethoven 3rd at York on debut
at 9/4 favourite.
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As ever, let us pull some strands out of that.
The 2005 set were all Group 1 class but those since have been lesser types
in initial appearance. Beethoven is a curve ball because he was a Group
1 winner in the Dewhurst but as about fourth string for the stable and
at 33/1 with just a maiden win to his name in a lot of goes. The two runners
in this race have been a superstar and a Listed class sprinter with the
second the one that managed to win helped by being on STO and opposed by
a weak field. An SP of 3/1 is huge and the 'COOLMORE' Ogre effect means
that most have got to pretty short prices on the reputation of the connections.
The record detailed above is 2 from 8 which sounds ok as a '25%' Strike
Rate. But, nearly everything started at much shorter SPs than 3/1 so dreadful
value and pocket emptying.
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His runner this year is Oracle who
is on his second run after being given a very easy time FTO after meeting
a little local difficulty. He was first string with Murtagh aboard and
racing behind the leaders close to the rail. The stable second string was
behind him and not going as well. As the leading line started to stall
Murtagh switched him away from the rail to make a challenge. The leaders
rolled off the rail at that point making Oracle's life a little more difficult
so Murtagh called a halt and waited for next time. The second string was
far enough back to continue his run up the rail and plug on to win while
Murtagh sat in 5th filling in his Tax Return.
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So, we know he is capable of much better and
could have won that race. If he is here he ought to be Listed class as
a minimum and ready to compete properly. His pedigree reads more like a
useful sprinter than a Group 1, development, miler. More Achilles of Trot
than George. Unless the Hannon newcomers are good then the most likely
winner but, if you think in 'Value' terms, what Price would you want? Let
us say 3/1 and best of luck with finding that.
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Godolphin finally got back to running more
2yos in Britain last year with 88 individuals running after years with
18-27-32. As many as 57 of the 2009 crop won and at an overall 30% Strike
Rate (SR) and the debut SR at 27%. More of the same for 2010 would be nice.
There is a 'But' coming as always. The Stable takes a bit of time to get
going with it's juveniles and those that run 'early' over 5f tend to be
just useful types and well short of the best they have.
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To make the point their record with 5f runs
over the the last two years in 1-6 and 2-6 so a 25% SR. But, the debuts
SR going back to 2002 is 1 from 15. The three FTO runs at 5f in 2008-9
all placed at SPs of 4/1 or 9/2. Which means we are already building up
a picture of the 'Market'. The O'Brien horse will be favourite and the
Suroor horse around 3/1 to 4/1 but with the connections saying he is 'Alright'
but that he will probably need the run.
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Last year they ran Izaaj in this race as their
first runner of the year and he was 3rd at 4/1 behind Radiohead. He won
a maiden STO then got thrashed in the, Listed level, Windsor Castle at
Royal Ascot. The best of the recent 5f debut horses have been Khor Dubai
& Global City who ran in Listed & Group races but without threatening
to win. If you present Al Aasifah to that template he is a pretty
good fit. Not a hugely expensive one or well related. A €90,000 purchase
by a sprint sire with handicapper Cordell as the best of his siblings.
A pedigree which says useful 2yo sprinter in the Global City mould and
not a high class one. He would not be ready enough to compete to win this
early off a Suroor prep and we can presume £10,000 yearling bonuses
are not going to change the Godolphin tactics.
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Yarooh comes out best of those with
previous runs after a competent debut here in a fillies' maiden. Unlike
some of the Brittain debuts she was competent from the start and led the
field for much of the race. We saw yesterday with Zaidan at Doncaster than
good debuts from the trainer usually indicate a better class one doing
it on ability. The quality of that Newmarket race looks suspect with the
4th & 6th beaten in moderate races last week while the 5th managed
to win a Lingfield race with a moderate to average performance. Probably
more useful to assume that the best three fillies in that race got to the
front and will develop further than those in 4th+ anyway. Yarooh does not
have a speed pedigree but has a profile to develop well from debut. She
ought to place and a possible winner if Oracle underperforms.
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The other most likely source of some value
to oppose Oracle with is, obviously, the best of the Hannon newcomers.
Their debut record this year stands at 10 from 20 and two seconds (both
caught in the last strides after leading late on). However, this has not
gone unnoticed and the SPs have been getting pretty short with 9 at 4/1
or less and 5 getting below 13/8. But, at a 50% SR what SP do you need
if you can convince yourself of the quality of the opposition?
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Hughes rides Numeral with Moore on
Sheer Courage which means the first of them ought to be the better
one. But, if you just looked at the pedigrees Sheer Courage is the much
more likeable 5f prospect. Expensive at 120,000gns and another son on Invincible
Spirit to add to Al Aasifah. An older dam but she has produced various
winning sprint with hints of better quality although this has tended to
be around the OR100, Listed level, type as a peak. Last year's sibling
was Lowdown, by a less zippy sire, who won over 6f and ended up rated OR87.
Probably need to be a bit better than that if he is to challenge a good
Oracle effort even with the Hannon prep boost this year.
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Numeral does not have a pedigree that shouts
5f this early. The dam is by stamina source Sadlers' Wells and won over
11f. She has not produced a winner in three foals although last years 2yo
placed over 7f on debut. He is by new sire Holy Roman Emporer who has not
had a winner in Britain yet although has in Ireland. He won over 6-7f from
June onwards. Now, the sire was small and you suspect he will get ready
types on account on size from the stouter mare. If they take after him
they are not going to be big, boaty, 8f+ physical types.
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If you go to the Highclere Thoroughbred's
website (Numeral's owner) they gush on about how ready & strong he
is. The picture above is of him last October as a yearling and probably
tells us a bit about the neat types that sire HRE is going to give us a
lot of. The picture shows him with a mature demeanour back then and a strong
neck and shoulder. If he has strengthened up behind and Hannon thinks he
is ready to go you have to accept that. He may well be better over further
but Hannon will win 5f races with horses other trainers would not even
try at the distance. If Hughes prefers him then he ought to be OR95+ in
the long term and might get to favourite if they think he is really good.
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A couple of lesser quality profiles from trainers
that do have some record of getting FTO winners after that. Ed McMahon
runs Temple Meads for John Fretwell and an unusual place to start
one of the owners juveniles. Remember that places are expected from better
Fretwell debuts along with wins for the better ones. But, the FTO runs
are normally at lesser tracks. Look through McMahon's record and, since
he started in 2005, he has had just three FTO runs at 'Major' courses and
all for Fretwell. They have produced a 25/1 win at Newbury (Group Class
and sold to Hong Kong), and two runs at the Newmarket courses for a 10/1
2nd and a 14/1 5th of 18 both for OR85+ fillies.
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Temple Meads only cost £16,000 and related
to a useful filly who ran for Fretwell and by sire Avonbridge who is proving
a solid source of precocious 5f wins. A difficult call to say whether this
one is capable of competing here. On balance you would say he might place
depending upon the overall strength but light on quality to win here.
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Marco Botti has either changed his approach
back to the ready on Debut style or Leiba Leiba is an absolute natural.
That one was backed at Notingham last week as his first runner of the year
and led late on until headed on the line. The support for ones that are
expected to go well seems an item to note. After being a trainer that got
strong debuts regularly in 2006-7 he seemed to change in 2008-9 to a 'Peak
STO' method. Perhaps the Bonus Scheme is getting him interested again.
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He runs Pretium Sceleris who is owned
by his family having not reached the reserve at the 2yo Breeze Up sale
at Kempton in March. You could translate the horse's name as 'Criminal
Price' so perhaps he is moaning, in Latin, about the state of the bloodstock
market. Or perhaps it is 'Reward for Evil'. Whatever, he is presumably
motivated to do well with it and the sire Johannesburg is fine for a nippy
5f one and the dam was Listed level in Canada although that might well
just mean a useful handicapper. A difficult one to place.
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On Wings Of Love was staying on behind
Yarooh on her first run and would probably have finished 5th but for getting
hampered. That does not look good enough to compete with the stronger profiles
here.
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In summary, Oracle just top on Profile
but no value in supporting Coolmore maiden runners in Britain over the
years so let that go. Similar feelings about the Godolphin 5f debuts so
Al Aasifah can go as well. Yarooh sets a solid standard but, on balance,
did not come over as a really high class one despite a competent debut.
Size her up but would not expect to be supporting her after the Paddock
Review unless something odd shows up. A niggle that Sheer Courage might
be the readier of the Hannon types but, in the end, you have to go with
Hannon & Hughes' view. If the Market says Numeral is better, and good,
then perhaps overlook his lack of size. A couple of Lurkers of which Temple
Meads seems light on quality and Pretium Sceleris more troublesome for
the day.
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