British 2yo Racing - 2010 Race Result :- 291 : Tue, July 6th

BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2010 Season Race Result

Race 291 : Tue, July 6th
Pontefract 2:30, 6f Nursery (4)

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2010 Results

[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.

GOING	TIME	RcPc	VP
GFF	77.93 [Compare]	1	None

	Horse	SP	[EST]	OR	Run	Wnr	Trainer	Dw	Hf	Run Notes
1	Majestic Myles	0.44	70	83	4	m	R. A. Fahey	2	4	BOk PNgl, LdgPrErl RL, H-1+1f Allow XFr, SFre & FFH for 2F, Eff-2f+ Resp, PO, Ld-1f+, 2Clr-0.5f HnH, Idle or Stall? Lt
2	Witzend	20	52	66	4		J. O'Keeffe	4	5	H-2 Immed Drop Last & XB, -4L Hf, Ngl-2f+, TTR-2f, po-1f, Po-0.5f, po Lt
3	Orientalist	14	54	73	4	m/N	E. Johnson-Houghton	6	3	B-1 Wdst, Rcv Cmf, Sttld+1f 2Wd, Eff-2f & Resp, Po, Chal-1f+ & Outpcd by Winner, po
4	Alfraamsey	4.5	29	78	7	m	M. R. Channon	3	1	B1, Ngl Erl & Ld, XF+1f SFre & Hld, IncrPc-2.5f, Eff-2f+, po, Hdd-1f+, Stall-1f, Fd-0.5f
5	Loves Theme	10	-20	73	4		A. Bailey	5	2	Drift 17/2, BKWL Wd, H-1 Erl Drop 2nd Rank Sttld, SOutpcd-2f, SHmp ins-2f, po, Fd-1f, Eased-0.5f
NR	Azzurra Du Caprio			73		m/N	B. M. R. Haslam	1		NR = Self Cert (Not Eaten Up)

SUMMARY

Rail out by 12 feet for entire 6f.
The sort of race where sectional time would be useful to assess what was going on. Pace not look frantic and after 1.5F seemed to settle as Alfraamsey crossed to the rail and jockey trying hard to hold him. Similar holds from other jockeys and Hanagan on MMyles never really get him settled and pulling over the pace set in second rank on the rail.
But, look at the halfway positions versus final placings and how strongly horses finished and it suggests a different set-up. The first four through halfway were within 1.5L of lead at halfway with Witzend at more than 4L back alone. The two leaders finished in the last two places and fading badly. Orientalist racing 2 wide overall and able to mount a solid challenge and plugging on to the finish. MMyles again take a bit of time to get going at 2F out but a strong run once gathered and 2L clear at 0.5F out. Head slightly up towards the finish and not going forward as well. Connections suggest this was idling. But it allowed the one horse, Witzend, set up as a 'Closer' to get to him and without a bit of response from MM late on he might have been beaten. So, Closers' Race, or not.
MM had been targeted at these two Nursery wins as soon as the Fahey stable knew the OR he would get. They knew he was better than the rating and a little hard to understand why the handicapper let him in lightly. Getting stuck on the rail at York STO proved to be a good thing. Will presumably now be reassed into the high OR80s and perhaps into the OR90s so should try Conditions+ races now. But, has already won three races this year so a huge success whatever else the season brings. in 2009 there were a grand total of 19 runs in Nurseries by horses rated 90 or above producing one win (by progressive Kaptain Kiekup at 6/4f). MM has now effectively worked handicapping system to win two Nurseries so will need to go up in grade.
Witzend a 4TO improver in his first Nursery but a minor question over whether the race shape made him look better than he is. Unplaced in three previous runs so the old requirement of three runs and a place (before later season) has gone. Looking back through his previous runs he had hinted at better ability than OR66. Midfield in his first two runs but in two stronger Northern maidens. The 11 horses that beat him in those two races have produced 5 later winners (to add to the 2 x actual winners), a place in a Listed race and several runs in Conditions+ races. Looking at those races Witzend was some form of Changeover Point with him hanging onto the tails of the solid horses in front of him and a real gap behind him back to the rest. The horses who have finished in front of him that have not yet won are Lady Royale (the Listed placer), Swendab (no later run), Ice Trooper (pressing short-runner that may well win as he settles and stays better) & No Poppy (placed since and will win when she finds the right race set-up).
An inexperienced 7lbs apprentrice rode him 3TO which suggested the connections wanted to wait for nurseries. Look at the shape of the result and he is in his normal place. 6th of 12 on the back of the first group and with a gap back from him to the stragglers. The jockey that day made an odd early move on him that day (doesn't she know the '2f out' rule?). You could read that as the horse going well enough to make the jockey want to try to get back some of the ground lost with a slow start and then holding him back early depsite the slowness of break (robotic jockeys' orders compliance). But, an overall profile of a horse that could improve to show the solid second here. Has the build to believe he is OR70+ so competitive off his OR off 66 here. Will he be able to fit a run in before he goes up?
Orientalist fell into a win on debut in a fast race that fell apart rather than winning it on ability and he is not a better horse than Leiba Leiba. Did not seem to stay 6F STO and dropped back to 5f 3TO. Saw out the 6F here and seemed averagely competitive off his mark.
Alfraamsey another of those Channon horses that runs a lot and throws in duff runs along the way. Went out very tamely here after a strong performance LTO. But, that win was probably hugely assisted by the Stands' Rail bias at Newcastle. Perhaps went too hard here.
LT has not looked convincing as OR70+ type and longer SP here, smallest in the field and relatively easily brushed aside. Not eeven showing the willing attitude. In general the two OR70+ nurseries to date have shown the usual range of, easily identifiable, over-rated horses who have started at long SPs. The handicapper gets praised when a race happens to produce a close finish (whether by accident or not, a strong pace race can fall apart to produce an 8-in-a-line Closers-n-Pressers mixture or have them spread all over the County) but we tend to be too kind and not point out the problems. The three Nurseries so far have produced 23 runners of which 10 have started at less than 10/1. So, more than half have been assessed by the general Market as too high before they have ever run in a handicap. The four shortest prices have included the three winners. The clever bit is probably spotting Witzend and Azzurra Di Caprio as the competitive long-shots. But, as a wider point the handicap system is showing the usual problems with getting to grips with 2yos and not producing '8/1 the field' handicaps. A good thing if you like biases.