Nottingham 2:05, 6.1f Maiden (Fillies') (5)
|1||Nordic Spruce||4||43||1||H. R. A. Cecil||3||Drift 5/2, B-2, Eff Erl, 2nd Rank+1f, X to RL+1.5f, TvOk-2.5f, SwcL-2f+, Eff-2f Po, 3rd-1f, Po, po ins-0.5f, Ld Lt Stall|
|2||Royalorien||14||42||1||W. J. Knight||10||B-2 Inx P-1, Ngl Erl TTR, Ngl+2.5f SLsGrnd, Dv-2.5f+ TTR, po ins-2f, 5th-1f -4L, po to Ln past Fdrs|
|3||Magic Stella||8||40||4||M||A. P. Jarvis||6||BOk PBmp NoLoss, Eff Erl & Prg, XF+1f 2nd 1Wd, Eff-2.5f, Po ins-2f, SHgL ins-1f & po, Stall-0.5f|
|4||Catalinas Diamond||0.91||40||4||B. W. Duke||9||Supp 7/4, BLh NL, SEff Erl & Ld, XF+0.5f, Jnd+1f, IncfPc Hf, Eff ins-2.5f, PO, 1Clr-1f, po ins-1f, Stall-0.5f, Fd Lt Hdd|
|5||Empress Charlotte||22||24||2||M. L. W. Bell||1||B-2 Wdst Inx, Dv Erl TTR, 8th+0.5f, Resp+1.5f & SPrg, Eff-2f SOutpcd, po, Unbal-1.5f, Fd ins-1f|
|6||Scantily Clad||4.5||23||1||M||E. S. McMahon||5||Eff Erl Resp, LdgLn Erl, XF+1f 3rd 2Wd, Eff-2f, po, SHgL-1f+, Fd-0.5f+|
|7||Time For Applause||80||-4||3||E. A. L. Dunlop||7||BOk PBmp-2, Fre+1f & Hld in Last, LsGrnd+2.5f Ngl, SAdf Hf Dv, Fd-1f+|
|8||Silent Serenade||16||-5||1||W. Swinburn||4||BOk Wd, SFre Erl & Hld, Drop 2nd Rank+2f, Dv-2.5f+ SOutpcd, po HnH, Fd-1f+|
|9||Laugia||100||-20||3||J. R. Jenkins||8||B-1 PBmp NoLoss Resp, H-1 +1f Drop 2nd Rank SFre, Ngl+2f, SOutpcd Hf, Hmp-2f -2L, Eased ins-1.5f|
|NR||Carrignavar||M||R. M. Beckett||2||NR = Self Cert (Sore Shins)|
||Stalls stands' side and field race the rail. Stiffish headwind but a faster time of level that often indicates an OR80+ performance unless going very quick. Solid pace and final race efforts kicking off by just inside 2.5F out.
Picture - of the finish.
Ok, so just read the result as a bit of 'Form' and perhaps it was 4 fillies running to OR80+ together. The fourth home (CD) was the Queen Mary 5th stepping up to 6.1f. She would have hung on to win after forcing the pace if the race had been up to about 5.7f and a 1L+ winner at 5f. She is a solid physical types and the best in this field in Review and believable to get OR80+.
MS is the second best in the field and OR74-79 range on Review. Typically fizzy and difficult to control for the handler as an Alan Jarvis 2yo often is. Also owns a less than smooth career development and has been tried in two tough Ascot races after a promising debut. Pressed CD for most of the race and unable to match her forward effort but running second for most of the way and plugging on better to get past that one as she faded late. Not obviously OR80 but BHA over-rateable as that.
The winner is NS is an owner bred with a strong pedigree trained by Henry Cecil so will get rated over OR80 if she can move her legs in the correct pattern. A mixed pedigree with the dam a precocious 2yo sprinter who won at Listed level for John Gosden. The sire rarely gets 2yos winners below 8f unless they are pretty useful. Below medium size but strongly built and neatly put together. Not a rangy stayer on looks but better built than her dam. Able to sit second rank comfortably enough but unable to match the efforts of the leading pair. Wore them down late on as they faded and then stalling by the line herself. Overall, s good effort from a well prepared Cecil runner. Should stay further and compete at higher level but not a better class one.
So far a story that you can make hang together comfortably enough. Fast conditions but a headwind to slow up the front rank if they go a bit hard. OR75-85 range fillies in 3 of the first four places with the second rank racer eventually outlasting the leading pair of fillies as they flagged.
Ok, but what on earth is Royalorien doing in the photograph for the win? The reviewer did not like her at all and could just about see her getting OR71 but struggling to win an Open Maiden and more OR60s. Small, weaker in front and so on. Well prepared by a trainer who gets regular strong debuts at longer odds. But, green and a slow start and losing ground as the pace upped mid-race. 6L+ back at halfway. Still 4L adrift at 1F out and the strong feeling that she got close to winning by plugging on into three tiring fillies who are better than her. Read it as form and she is a very strong candidate for a maiden STO. Trust the reviewer and one to oppose with a '2' next to her name and the fillies she finished with over-stating her ability. Perhaps she is one of those (uncommon) smaller ones with very good athleticism that makes the best of what they have. Will presumably be up to 7f next time and plenty of weak races so might win if she finds a softer race but the OR the final test. [Similar stuff from the same reviewer in early season when Never Can Stop got a low rating but finished a strong second to Inagh River. That was one of the fastest 2yo 5f races run at the course in recent years. Three later runs by NCS and no win and the race has not produced a later winner. Different here since the front of the race is more solid and CD & MS should be able to win with the right set-up if their trainers can arrange it (neither have good records). But, go with what you know until you have to let it go.]
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