BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2010 Season Race Result
Race 527 : Fri, August 13th
Newcastle 2:10, 7f Maiden (5)
[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.
GOING
 TIME RcPc VP
GS 92.94
[Compare]		 -1None

Horse SP [EST]Run Wnr Trainer Dw Hf Run Notes
1Newport Arch50383 J. J. Quinn 11
11
BOk, H-2 Erl Drop Back, Dv-3f, SOutpcd-2.5f QTTR, po ins-1.5f, 6th-1f, po on Bias Strip, Resp ins-0.5f, Ld Ln
2Ventura Sands1.5381 R. A. Fahey 10
7
Supp 15/8, BOk, Fre+0.5f & Hld, FFH for 1f, H-1+1f Drop-in, SwcL-2f TTR, po ins-2f, Ld ins-1.5f, po, Stall Lt, Hdd Ln
3Old Possum5341 M. A. Zarooni 7
6
Supp 13/2, 1stCols, B-1 Inx P-1, Rsp Erl & Mdfld Sttld, SInx-2.5f SOutpcd, HgL-2f, Resp-1.5f, po, SwcR-1f, po Bias Strip
4Defence Of Duress12341 M T. P. Tate 1
9
B-2 RL Inx P-1, Ngl Erl & Resp, Dv-3f, Whip-2.5f, po ins-2f, 3rd-1f, po, Stall Lt, Ran Wrong Side = BTR?
5Hawdyerwheesht12271 M M. Johnston 12
5
BRh-1 Wdst, Eff Erl & Prg, LdgLn+1f SFre & Hld, SOutpcd-2.5f, po, Chal ins-2f, HgL-1f+, Fd-0.5f+
6Microlight40263 T. D. Easterby 9
2
BOk, LdgLn Erl Sttld, Eff-2.5f+, po, Ld-2f, po, HgL ins-1.5f, Stall-1f+, SResp-0.5f, Fd Lt
7Chagal20202 K. A. Ryan 8
1
PNgl, Resp Erl & Prg, Ld+0.5f SHld HdR, IncrPc-3f, Eff-2.5f, po, Hdd-2f, HgL ins-2f, Fd ins-1.5f
8Bosambo4181 G. A. Swinbank 3
4
Drift 11/4, BRear-1f, Ngl Erl & Resp, LdgLn+0.5f Sttld, Eff-2.5f, po, HgL-1.5f, Fd-1f+
9Sandpipers Dream80142 T. D. Walford 4
10
B-1 Inx P-1, Resp Erl, Bhd+0.5f Sttld, Outpcd-2.5f, po Fd ins-1f
10Chibchan7123 M. A. Zarooni 6
3
2nd Cols, BOk, LdgLn Erl, Eff-2.5f, SOutpcd ins-2.5f, Fd ins-2f, Eased-1f
11Byron Bear66102 P. T. Midgley 2
8
B-1, H-1 Erl Drop back, TvOk Hf, Eff-2.5f, po, Resp ins-2f, po, 4th-1f, Fd-0.5f+
NRJanet's Pearl S A. Duffield 5
NR = Late Notification & No Reason Noted.


SUMMARY
 Rain during morning and through racing. Meeting Started on GS and changed to Soft after this race (first on card).
Where to file this race with it's 50/1 winner (NArch)? On a simple reading the placed horses make a presentable bunch and the winner runs for a good trainer who's form has been patchy in the season. Horse blew the break at Beverley FTO and appeared not to get 7.5f. Dropped back to 6f at Catterick that looked too fast for him. Put him on a straight track with an uphill 7f now he is fitter and he managed to grind out a win getting from last to first (on the line) in tough conditions. No doubt some part of the win you could assign to that sort of story.
But, early pace not that strong although the final efforts kicked off soon after 3f out to put more pressure into the race. Had the effect of producing a 'Closers' race looking at where the first 4 were at halfway? Field only spread over 4L at halfway. At 2f out with the winner disputing last having been outpaced (again) by the 2.5f out efforts and heavily driven you would not have seen him as a winner. Ok, he might be a slow staying type but the race did just not 'Play Out' in a recognisable manner.
Go back to 2009 and a lot of examples of races being split into two. Horses racing beyond midtrack away from the stands rail stopping quickly inside the last 1.5f and underperforming by miles. A Magic Strip just on the Stands' Side of Mid Track that could transport 'Anything' into looking much better than they are and producing 'Form' that they can not repeat reliably. Newcastle has already given us a ghastly version of this with a HUGE stands' rail bias at some meetings.
Plug this race into that Model for how the race would play out and the fit is Pretty Good. Ventura Sands take soff intot he lead on that strip but stalls a little late on and gets caught. NA produced his late race Grind straight up the same strip. Old Possum stupid throughout the race and rolling about going nowhere in later race. Then hangs over towards the stands side and make some ground once there to 3rd. Hawdy't makes an ok forward effort on the strip then starts haging left and disappears backwards (possibly just Johnston FTO typical, of course).
Anyway, you wouldn't want to bet on NA reproducing this form and being anything like as good as the others in the first 4. DoDuress has run a terrific race if there was a bias having run far side of centre. Might be better class on that and leave the relative gap to NA as a baffling line in the Form Book. Worth also noting Byron Bear who now owns a pair of grisly runs. But, ran the wrong side here and travelling ok inside 2.5f out (much better than the winner). Made a real forward move to 4th but stopped very quickly in the lat 1f. Possibly a physical problem but given the imbalance between his 'Form' and the promise then of some interest.

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