British 2yo Racing - 2010 Race Result :- 793 : Sun, September 19th

BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2010 Season Race Result

Race 793 : Sun, September 19th
Hamilton Park 3:10, 8.3f Maiden (5)

2010 Season Home
2010 Results

[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.

GOING	TIME	RcPc	VP
GSG	108.38 [Compare]	0	None

	Horse	SP	[EST]	Run	Wnr	Trainer	Dw	Hf	Run Notes
1	State Opera	2	56	1		M. Johnston	8	1	SEff Erl & Ld, IncrPc-3f, TvOk-2f, Eff-1.5f, Po HnH, Resp to Ln, Cmf
2	Spey Song	11	44	2		J. D. Bethell	1	4	BOk Wdst, H-2 +0.5f, Eff ins-3f, Resp & po, 2nd-1f+, po, Fd ins-0.5f
3	Galloping Queen	1.63	34	5		M. R. Channon	2	3	BkWL, H-1 Erl, Eff ins-3f, po, Fd-0.5f+
4	Tarantella Lady	4.5	32	4		George M. Moore	3	2	2nd Erl 1Wd, Eff-3f, po, Fd-1f+
5	Miss Villefranche	10	30	3		M. L. W. Bell	7	5	H-2 Erl XM, SOutpcd-3f, po, Fd-1f+
6	Operateur	66	25	1		B. M. R. Haslam	6	6	B-1, H-2 Erl, SOutpcd-3f, po, Fd-1.5f+
7	Geminus	80	4	1		J. O'Keeffe	5	7	B-1, SAdf Hf Ngl, NoResp, Fd ins-1f
8	Nay Secret	50	-11	1		J. S. Goldie	4	8	B-1, Adf Hf Dv, NoResp, Fd ins-1f

SUMMARY

The stars all align. Trainer Johnston tends to buy types who develop and are better up in distance. His training regimes produce gallopers who are best setting an even pace, in the lead if necessary. He bangs on, quite rightly, about how it is changing pace is hugely inefficient in power usage. Decelerating and accelerating a 500kg mass takes a lot of energy. All that stuff about Johnston horses responding when challenged is presumably just the 'Easy Leader' effect where a horse running within itself in the lead will be able to finda response to horse having made an effort to get to you.
In almost any age category a Johnston horse up in trip or at a staying distance for the age, as here, brings better strike rates. He is also a Director at this course and tends to bring better types here. The person responsible for the Hamilton Race Programme must have to argue with Johnston to not get rid of all the 5-6f race nonsense. The trainer's record at the course over the 8.3f distance between 2002-9 is 14 from 25 with five places (all races single figure fields). How bad must the six who failed to place have been?
Put that all together and 2/1 for State Opera sounds like the wrong price for the OR80+ type he normally brings here. Faced by 3 fillies with lower OR70s form with GQ small and over-rated and a daft favourite. TG bigger and more scope but unfit and in middling condition on her last run on return from a break and not really 'there' here. Paid for trying to keeep witht he Johnston machine.