British 2yo Racing - 2010 Race Result :- 7 : Tue, April 6th

BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2010 Season Race Result

Race 7 : Tue, April 6th
Ffos Las 2:20, 5f Maiden (5)

2010 Season Home
2010 Results

[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.

GOING	TIME	RcPc	VP
GS	59.22 [Compare]	1	None

	Horse	SP	[EST]	Run	Wnr	Trainer	Dw	Hf	Run Notes
1	Bathwick Bear	9	49	1	V	P. D. Evans	7	4	LdgLn Erl ins, CarrLh+1f & Hmp-2 DropBack, SwcR+1.5f to RL & Ngl 2nd Rnk, Eff-2f Resp & 2nd, Ld-1.5f, po to Ln HnH
2	Scarlet Rocks	14	40	2	A	P. D. Evans	6	2	LdgLn Erl, 2nd+1f Sttld, Ld-2f, po, Hdd-1.5f SResp & po to Ln, Jk Drop Whip ins-1f but 2nd Best anyway
3	Ivan's A Star	22	31	2		J. S. Moore	8	8	P-1, Ngl Erl SInx SLsGrnd, Eff-2f RL SResp, po, 3rd-1f HgL, Stall-0.5f, Vol 3rd
4	Dingle View	33	25	1	M	P. D. Evans	1	9	L-1 Ngl Resp, LsGrnd+1f SOutpcd Cent, Outpcd-2f+, SRespLt to Fdrs, Vol 4th
5	Lady Brookie	0.8	20	2	C	W. G. M. Turner	3	3	B-1 PResp, LdgLn Erl Cent, Prg+1f to 3rd, TvOk Hf, NoResp-2f SHgL SMvAwk?, Stall ins-1.5f, Fd-0.5f+
6	Babich Bay	14	23	1		R. Curtis	2	5	LdgLn Erl Wd, SOutpcd+1f DropBack SInx?, Outpcd-2f Fd-1f+
7	Rosina Grey	33	15	1	M	B. R Millman	4	7	Fizzy Prelims, H-1 Immed HdUp & SFFH, H-1 Erl Drop Back, Outpcd-2f HdUp Inx, SwcR-1.5f, SResp ins-1f to Fdrs
8	Belle Bayardo	40	6	1	M	R. Harris	10	10	B-1 RL, P-4 Inx, Dv Erl, Adf+1f, NIR
9	Beach Patrol	3	3	2		M. R. Channon	9	1	LdgLn Erl RL, Fre+0.5f & Ld, HgL+1f off RL, Stall-2f & Hdd, Fd-1.5f HdUp
10	Snapshott	100	-32	1		R. Harris	5	6	H-2 Erl Drop Back, SHmp+1d SwcL, Outpcd-2f, Fd-1.5f+

SUMMARY

Difficult race to understand with two of the runners with solid placed failing badly. Going GS but a solid time for early season 2yos and the going perhaps a bit faster than that. Note a strong wind on the day and need to check whether this was a tailwind. Rain during the afternoon so the later times may not be directly comparable.
The 5f event two & a quarter hours later won in 58.54s by the filly Silver Linnet carrying 8lbs less than Bathwick Bear. 3yo filly rated OR68 & and would have given Bathwick Bear less than a 5lbs beating if compare times directly. WFA for 2yos vs 3yos over 5f in early April around 20lbs which, taken literally, would make BBear OR80ish on debut which seems unlikely. But bear in mind the [Estimate] might be an underestimate witht he first two clear.
The Preview noted that the 2009 juvenile races hinted at a stands' rail bias, i.e. easiest for high drawn horses to get to. Silver Linnet blasted off into a clear lead up the stands' rail in her race and stalled late but hung on. Fallon got Leleyf over from a wider draw to track Silver Linnet one lane off the rail. The 6f maiden race on the staight course saw two horses belt up the stands' rail together and have nearly everything beaten off before the final furlong. The one exception was a filly at 100/1 who has missed the break and trundled along in rear on the rail so missing the pace. She plugged on to pass the fading leading pair late.
All three races saw runners racing, say 3 lanes or more, off the rail and attending the pace expiring too early. The races 'fell apart' in ways that just did not look natural without some external bias like strips of better going. Two Dettori ridden horses for Mark Johnston faded in exactly the same manner as Lady Brookie in this race just inside 2F out and all three seemed to be moving awkwardly and hanging left afterwards.
So, a theory might be that running near to the rail for the first half of the race was an advantage. Running off the rail a disadvantage and if a horse doing so tried to attend a pace that put them under pressure they would fade very early.
If you tried applying that idea to this 2yo race you could make it fit quite well with one, big, problem. Scarlet Rocks. She raced off the rail and wider than Beach Patrol. She was second from an early stage and only 0.5L off the lead at halfway. Since she finished the race off well the theory is either wrong or Scarlet Rocks has been underestimated and she is an OR70+ filly and capable of winning an open maiden early. She was second string for her stable here on SPs but was beaten by the first string so perhaps just reflecting the stable knows which is best but not how good they are yet.
A sideshow was the fact that jockey Probert dropped his whip inside the final furlong. Since he had been slapping away at his filly for most of the penultimate furlong while Fortune on the winner had just been pushing away and was not gaining on him suggests strongly it made no difference and Bathwick Bear finished off more strongly anyway.
Bathwick Bear got to the rail in an odd way. He broke ok and was in the leading line early. As Beach Patrol hung left off the rail towards the end of the first fulonh BB got carried left and had to be held back to allow BP to clear him. This lost him two lengths and Fortune took the opportunity to switch to the rail. Given the 'Rail and miss unusable' theory that was probably a good thing. He was second rank at halfway and well place to challenge and two of the leaders expired insdie 2f out. Leaving him to battle with SR. Jockey only used whip once towards final 1F. Possible this was a good debut by an OR80+ type but that needs SR to be better than profile. Ought to be able to rate higher and perhaps underestimated.
Ivan's A Star lost ground early through a mix of slowness and incompetence so missed the pace and ran up the rail. He managed to wander through to a volunteer 3rd as the wider runners faded. Very suspect 'place' form and not one to follow.
Dingle View ran widest through the race so has some excuse. Outpaced at an early stage but probably running on worst going. Just plugging on late to get to 4th looking like a staying effort at a low level of form.
Lady Brookie ran 4-5 lanes off the rail and had to make a short effort to get to the leading line after a tardy start. Travelling well enough at halfway but nothing happened at 2F out when asked for an effort and she looked unable to pick-up and perhaps moving a little awkwardly (= Check the WTRB BHA site). She faded early and recorded a poor rating.
What to make of the Brocklesby form? That race was run in over 64s and this one just over 59s and LB had hinted at lacking some pace in the slower race. Perhaps she was just dragged along too fast in this race and slightly into the worse going.
Beach Patrol had seemed to run ok on debut in a slow Kempton 5f race and kept on well enough. He did not seem to have grown up mentally at all here and was free in the lead on the rail early on. He then hung left away from the best strip after 1F. But, he faded tamely even with those excuses an had his head in the air as he faded as if there might be a problem. Needs to grow up and difficult to place.
Nothing of interest among the rest and poor form behind the leading two. Main taks are to get a proper handle on the value of the first pair's performance and to assess how excusable, and recoverable, the efforts of LB & BP are.
Trainer David Evans said after the race that Bathwick bear was his fastest 2yo and he would have been in trouble [because the others were slower] if it had got beaten here. He said the horse had been ready for a month but would want faster. Probably the reason he missed the Brocklesby on Soft turf. Worth noting that the Market would not have told you how good Bathwick bear is and the stable rarely seems to punt on it's 2yos early. Bathwick Bear named by the trainer as his most likely type for the Lily Agnes.