British 2yo Racing - 2010 Race Result :- 811 : Thu, September 23rd

BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2010 Season Race Result

Race 811 : Thu, September 23rd
Pontefract 2:30, 6f Maiden (4)

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2010 Results

[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.

GOING	TIME	RcPc	VP
GFG	77.81 [Compare]	1	None

	Horse	SP	[EST]	Run	Wnr	Trainer	Dw	Hf	Run Notes
1	Jade	7	47	3		O. Pears	12	7	Drift 6/1, Eff-2f+ 4Wd & Prg, Ld-1.5f
2	Lowawatha	7	51	3		R. M. Beckett	1	3	Supp 9/1,
3	Sovereign Street	7.5	37	2		A. Duffield	2	1	Eff Erl, XF+1f & Ld, Hdd-1.5f
4	Bertiewhittle	100	35	2		T. D. Barron	10	8
5	Fityaan	3.33	34	3		B. W. Hills	9	6	Drift 5/2,
6	Rapturous Applause	40	32	2		M. D. Hammond	3	4
7	Double Dealer	1.25	25	3	M	M. A. Zarooni	5	2	Supp 15/8, QEff Erl, XF+1.5f 1Wd, Fd-1f HgL
8	West Leake Melody	66	24	3		B. W. Hills	13	11
9	Scottish Lake	100	9	1		J. O'Keeffe	4	9
10	Dreamweaving	50	-5	4		N. Tinkler	7	5
11	Susiesstaying	50	-6	2		P. T. Midgley	8	10
12	Rattleyurjewellery	33	-52	1		D. H. Brown	11	12	STrbl Ldg, Dv Erl, Whip+2.5f
NR	Red Snapper					J. R. Weymes	6		NR = Self Cert (Not Eaten Up)

SUMMARY

Another clunker from a Zarooni 3TO and this one as supported favourite. Given his record this year no-one should be putting a bent washer on his horses after STO. Ones that have shown placed form and going to 3TO very likely to regress notably.
His record with 2yos this year to the end on Sept 23, split by Run Number is =
FTO (57 runs, 8 wins (14% SR), 24 placed, P&L +7.00)
STO (41-9 (22%)-22, -6.42)
3TO (27-3 (11%), 10, -18.00)
4TO (16-2 (12.5%)-5, -6.00)
5TO 6-0-2, -6.00).
The profit on debut depends upon a number of Long SPs caused by the 'Second String' effect and the use of an Apprentice to make the 'Second' look weaker. The good Strike Rate STO but loss points up that many have shown ability FTO so are short SPs STO. They also often have been dropped to weaker races. The three x 3TO winners include two that ran clunkers 4TO and both of those had been beaten as favourites STO, one at 4/9f. The two x 4TO winners are both lesser types who won weak races at Lingfield AW & Brighton (Nursery off OR64) and both have been well beaten in Nurseries since off OR75 & 68.
TV Pundit says something vaguely presentable.. Shock. Professional Northerner Norton (or the other one on the bench) said before the race that Jade had looked 'laboured' last time and a bit disappointing. B2yoR would tend to agree. After a taking forward effort here to jump to a clear lead into the straight and hang on for a win that seems reasonable. Worth looking back at that Redcar race she was 4th in LTO and the front three are perhaps all OR80+. Jade would have looked laboured trying to close up on better ones on a fast track having given them a start. The 5th went on to finish 6th in the £200k Tattersall Fillies' Auction race at Newmarket. The 6th ran in the Group 3 for fillies' later in the week after the Debut and ran a solid looking 8th improving her rating. Both of those ratings need a checking how they work out but the evidence here makes the Redcar event of interest as to how the placed horses go NTO.