British 2yo Racing - 2011 Race Result :- 111 : Sat, May 21st - Newbury 6:35, 6f Maiden Auction (Fillies') (5)

BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2011 Season Race Result

Race 111 : Sat, May 21st
Newbury 6:35, 6f Maiden Auction (Fillies') (5)

2011 Season Home
2011 Results

[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.

GOING	TIME	RcPc	VP
GFG	74.14 [Compare]	0	None

	Horse	SP	[EST]	Run	Wnr	Trainer	Dw	Hf	Run Notes
1	Poetic Dancer	7	43	2	N	C. G. Cox	5	3	Drift 11/2, BkWL, Eff Erl, 2R+1f 2Wd Sttld, TvOk-2f, Eff-1.5f+, Po-1.5f, Ld ins-1f & Chalgd, Po & Duel
2	Esentepe	12	49	3	M	R. Hannon	3	5	Drift 10/1, B1 Wd, Hld Erl, Eff+0.5f, XM+1f 3Wd, 3R+2f Sttld, Prg-2g+, Eff-1.5f+, Po, Chal ins-1f, Po & Duel
3	Blackdown Fair	100	33	1	A	B. R Millman	8	7	B-1 PNgl Resp, H-1 +1f Drop Mdfld, Ngl-2f+ Inx, Dv-2f TTR, Po ins-1.5f, 5th-1f, Po, po Lt
4	Supreme Quest	3.5	32	3		R. Charlton	13	1	Supp 4/1, BkWL, Eff Erl & Ld, XF+1f 1Clr, IncrPc-2f+, Eff-2f, Po, po-1f, Hdd ins-1f, po, Fd Lt
5	Winter Hill	2	25	1	A	T. G. Dascombe	15	8	SuppOv, B-1 SInx P-2 Ngl, Dv Erl Resp, Prg+0.5f, SHmp+1f XM, TvCmf-2f, Blckd for 1f+, SwcR ins-1f, Po HnH
6	Concordia Notte	12	21	1		P. W. D'Arcy	16	4	Supp 25/1, BkWL, Hld Erl, Allow XFr+1f & 2R Sttld, Eff-2f SInx SUnbal, po-1.5f, Clear 4th-1f HgL, Fd ins-0.5f
7	Lady Gibraltar	20	22	1		A. P. Jarvis	11	11	B-1 PBmlpLh-3, Resp+0.5f, SPrg+1f, SHmp-2f+ RL, po ins-2f, SwcL-1f+, po, Fd ins-0.5f
8	Plym	50	21	1	N	R. Hannon	10	15	B-3 Inx PLh-3, Last Erl Dv, XB+1f, Dv-2.5f Inx, Outpcd-2f & SAdf, Resp-1f & po RL into Fdrs
9	Zain Princess	66	16	1		G. A. Butler	7	12	BkWL, LdgLn Erl & Hld SFFH, H-5 +0.5f out of Rc, TvOk-2f+, ModResp-2f HdUp Inx?, LsGrnd-1.5f, SHmp-1f+, Rsp-0.5f to Fdrs
10	Cresta Star	28	16	1	M	R. Hannon	12	10	BkWL, Hld Erl, H-2 +0.5f, H-1 +1.5f, Ngl-2f+ SInx, JkQt ins-2f, Hmp-1.5f, Eased, NPIR
11	Nude	33	10	1		S. Kirk	14	6	B-2, Dv Erl Resp, Prg+0.5f, Ngl Hf, Dv-2.5f, SOutpcd-2f, po, Fd ins-1f
12	Raspberry Fizz	25	7	2		E. Johnson-Houghton	2	9	BLh-1 Wdst, H-3 +0.5f, Prg+2f Cent, Dv-2f+ SInx, po-2f, Fd-1f
13	Love Grows Wild	6.5	9	1		M. L. W. Bell	9	2	BkWL, Eff Erl, XF+1f 2nd 1Wd, Dv-2.5f, SOutpcd-2f, po, 5th-1f+ & Fd
14	Dressed In Lace	25	4	1	N	A. M. Balding	4	14	B-2 QInx P-4 HdR, Last+0.5f, Unbal+1.5f, Inx-2.5f HgL, Eff-2f HgL, Fd-1f
15	Strictly Mine	50	-10	1		J. G. Portman	6	13	B-3 SInx P-2, 14th Erl, Resp+0.5f, Dv Hf Inx, Outpcd-2f, Fd-1f+
NR	Majestic Zafeen					M. R. Channon	1		NR = Vet's Cert (Lame)

SUMMARY

£10k Bonus race & one of 4 on the day after a break.

GFG with watering but no details given. Gong Stick 6.9 reading. Stalls Centre track. Medium to Stiff Breeze as a Crosswind from the Left, possibly a very slight Headwind.

Michael Bell on his website news May 19th = "In the evening we are introducing a nice two-year-old called LOVE GROWS WILD and I have been impressed with her work at home. We won the race last year with MARGOT DID and hopefully this will prove a good omen."

Hannon on his website the day before the race = "Esentepe bumped into a filly who Barry Hills thinks is Ascot material at Warwick, so she must have a chance of making it third time lucky, while the other two (Cresta Star and Plym) are ready for a run."

Roger Charlton on his website on the day of the race on Supreme Quest = "she seems to be fresh and well. She would appear to have the best form of the fillies that have run before but 12 of the 16 runners are running for the first time and may contain some flying machines. She loves the current fast ground and should be suited by 6 furlongs as she is from a staying family and her dam was by Rainbow Quest"

Field raced close to Stands' Rail with SQ leading early by more than 1L and crossing over to the rail and the others following. Pace only average but field reasonably well stretched out in banks of 2-3 horses rather than wide spread. 6th horse through halfway more than 4L back and 10th 6L+ back. Lot of inexperience overall and a number given non-involving rides. Which meant the front of the race involved three fillies who had interlocking form and are OR60s-70s level until Blackdown Fair stayed on late.

Race has a wide range of weights and often a long tail of cheap and small ones. Variety of physical types and any better quality requires the filly being a better than the sales price would indicate. 2010 field a good template with 16 runners producing 8 laters winners with the winner being a zippy one for 10k who competed at Group level. But, the placed horses produced an auction race winner who got a ludicrous OR79 rating (now rated OR53 and 1 seller win since) and a Seller winner who has not won since. In the 5th+ group where 5 more winners with two proper OR70+ types well back have attended a strong pace. In 2009 the 15 fillies produced only 6 later winners with the solid OR70+ bigger one in 2nd. As in 2010 a number of the later winners finished well back in the ruck.

Which means this is unlikely to be a race to be looking for lots of OR70+ types to come from and looking for usable ones more likely. PD ran well on debut and very fit here to the point of lokking overdone. Smaller but a trier still and probably showed most of what she can do. Esentepe giving 3Lbs+ all round and an OR70s filly. Looked better here up to 6f after taking time to get going at WWCK. Jockey dropped whip but made no difference to result. But, a solid type and develop a bit over 7f. SQ beaten by PD on debut but 5lbs better off here. Beat Esentepe LTO over 5.5f and 3lbs better off. Fizzy type and a trier and perhaps overdid here and not seeing the 6f out so being beaen. Narrowed bodied and probably OR70s but below Open Maiden class.

With the average pace the fillies can be split into three groups at the finish. The prominent racers who found some sort of effort and finished the race off to some extent and made the first 6 home. 7th-10th home made up of fillies who got behind then plugged on into the faders. 11th+ made up of those who tried to race more forward and faded a lot despite the pace and those who were too stupid and/or poor to get involved.

The three fillies in the first 4 with previous runs you would perhaps split as PDancer has probably won her race and will struggle to go on and win again. Esentepe a solid prospect and should win. SQuest lacks development and needs to settle down a bit but a good attitude so should win.

The best debuts in 3rd & 5th obvious promise but perhaps ones to let go STO given they were visible to everyone. Rod Millman has got his winners from his 5f debut recently so Blackdown Fair would be a departure. But the trainer has said this is an ok type and she was green at times here and staying on well enough. Given the way his horses improve STO she should go well STO but see what set-up she is in.

Fascinating to compare Tom Dascombe to Mark Prescott (interviewed at length recently in an RUK Feature). Prescott's approach is to know how good a horse is at 2yo before it runs and then have a plan which works backwards from where he thinks it should be competing at 3-4yo. If it is and OR85 12f handicapper then the 2yo runs are just build up to that long term plan. He said he wasn't that interested in 2yo racing because he felt there was less nuance and the plotting and working loopholes was what he really enjoyed. He felt 2yo racing was just about which was the fastest horse for the most part (a contributory reason to why Paddock Review gets less diluted by other factors in maidens for 2yo). Despite that he did name 2yo Spindrifter as his favourite achievement racing for being able to work the system to win lots of races with an OR90s juvenile. He did note that the best 2yo trainers had to be good at buying the right horses at the sales and that a real skill. Which is something Dascombe seemed to do ok until a less good 2010. Better signs overall in 2011 for him but interesting to compare his approach to Prescott. None of the 3yo set-ups here and many of the Dascombe 2yos are ready for early season and do not improve. Look back at his record with his 'Group' class 2yos and hardly any of them have won since their peaks at 2yo. Prescott, Stoute & Cumani would be quietly appalled. One of the worst examples of over-preparing for debut and not developing for Dascombe in Marine Boy (9L maiden winner here FTO and hasn't won in 2.5 years since

Winter Hill a good size for £5k and another over-prepared one. Market had the message she was good enough off bottomweight and ready. Got blocked in on the rail after halfway until into the last 1F whent he first 4 had gone. Enough happened when clear to think the ability is there. But, how will she develop having been wound up for this.

Some interesting types to follow in the ruck. Hannon has run 8 fillies in the race 2008-10 and the record is 5 have won (2 x better types incl a Group winner down to 2 x seller class), 2 have placed in similar auctions and one really was useless. Esentepe the solid one here with newcomers Cresta Star & Plym both having 7f+ pedigrees. Cresta Star the second string on jockeys and an ok size but not ready. Never put into the race and left the impression she can develop ok to win. Plym the most green in the field and got adrift inside the last 2f. But responded to plug on in the last 1f down the rail into the faders. Ok promise at a low level given the Hannon record.

Most development interest in Love Grows Wild as the best type and with the bulk to progress. Has a 7f+ development pedigree and seemed to be a bit unfit here because of her size (jockey reported to have said 'Fat'). Paid for racing prominently as an unready, 7f+, type and a bad fade but still 5th to the last 1f. Second runner of the season for trainer and his first was much worse and that one (Apostle) improved notably to STO and LGW ha sbeen working well enough with him.

Another to track in Zain Princess as a solid size and given a peculiar ride. Broke well and prominent early then hauled back to the rear as if she might be a free-runner. That move took her out of competing for the race in any meaningful way. By Hawk Wing and perhaps showed a bit of the expected type when the head went up when asked to go forward later on. But did respond after losing ground. Trainer front-loads and ZP showed enough to be a developer to win hidden in the ruck.

[Update = Roger Charlton on his website the day after the race = "Rather frustratingly Supreme Quest was beaten 3 lengths by two fillies that on the form book we should have beaten, but it does appear that her trip is 5 furlongs and that having traveled so well she just ran out of gas. " ]