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Southwell 3:40, 5f Maiden (5) |
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| Horse | SP | [EST] | Run | Wnr | Trainer | Dw | Hf | Run Notes | ||||
| 1 | Mitchum | 3.5 | 49 | 1 | T. D. Barron | 2 | BkWL, LdgPr Erl, Ld+1f, Dv ins-2f, po, 4Clr-1f, po to Ln for Full Rd, QKA | |||||
| 2 | Dougie Boy | 1.88 | 25 | 2 | W. G. M. Turner | 7 | Supp 11/4, PNgl Resp, LdgLn Erl StdsSd, Dv+2f, Whip Hf, po-2f, Stall ins-0.5f, SRespLt, QKA | |||||
| 3 | Mousie | 14 | 18 | 2 | A | A. J. McCabe | 1 | BOk Wdst, Bmp Erl SFre, H-1 +0.5f & 2R Sttld Cent, SOutpcd-2f, po-1.5f, Stall ins-0.5f, Fd Lt | ||||
| 4 | Bojangle | 12 | 11 | 1 | D. J. S. Ffrench-Davis | 5 | PLh-1, Inx+1f Dv, Outpcd+1.5f, SOutpcd-2f, -10L -1f SwcL, SResp ins-0.5f Cent to Fdrs | |||||
| 5 | Darnathean (v) | 7 | 15 | 1 | N | P. W. D'Arcy | 3 | Drift 7/1, AP Blanket, BkWL, LdgPr Erl SFre, Stall ins-2f, HgL-1.5f, Fd-1f+, 2nd-1f, Tired Lt | ||||
| 6 | Manderston | 7 | 1 | 1 | M. Johnston | 4 | B-2 Inx P-1, Dv Erl TTR, HgL+0.5f, DvOv, SOutpcd+1f, SOutpcd-2f, po, Fd-1f+ HgL | |||||
| 7 | Abercandy | 7 | -9 | 1 | N | P. D. Evans | 6 | BAwk-1, Dv+0.5f, LsGrnd+1f, HdUp+1.5f, Adf+2f, -10L Hf, Fd-1f+ HgL | ||||
| 8 | Cotes Du Rhone | 28 | -32 | 1 | P. D. Evans | 8 | B-3 RL QInx, Dv Erl LsGrnd, HgL+1f Dv Adf, -20L Hf, NoResp-2f, NIR, Small? | |||||
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Stiff breeze on the day as a FULL Tailwind. Class 6 Handicap run 90 minutes earlier won by OR60 rated 6yo Spic 'N Span in a relatively quick 58.33s by front-running and carrying 4lbs more than this winner. So, track conditions favouring the more normal Type A Southwell races. Track must be dry and being watered during the breaks between races. A lot of dusty kickback. Race played out mostly in Type A format with the runners fading in order and only change in positions from Halfway to final placings was Darnathean fading notably late on. He had pressed the winner and within a short-head of him at halfway with the 3rd-4th at halfway 1-2L back and under pressure. 5-6th around 6L back and the other pair 10L & 20L adrift of the leader. Effect of the draw in the straight used to be consistent and low numbers that race in Centre track (or even drift to Far Rail) usually favoured. Over the last two winters this has become much more difficult to understand. In both seasons the Stands' Side and the rail has been an advantage a lot of the time. In the worst weather (i.e. Dec 2010) when they work the track 24 hours a day the surface changes to the point where draw, and pace biases, disappear and it can become a lottery. Spic 'N Span drawn 4 of 10 and raced in Centre track and a bit over to stands' side. He beat draws 2-3-1 as his placed horses and the high draws nearer the Stands' rail uncompetitive. Which would suggest the track is going back into it's Spring/Summer norm. One subtlety to consider to add to all the re-numbering on the RH tracks. The Stalls on the SWEL 5f track are pushed in from the Outside of the Course from the Stands' Side rail. The effect of this is that the Draws are in different places dependent upon field size. Something the BHA needs to sort out given the biases you get at tracks like this. Consider that in an 8 runner field Stall 7 is one off the rail and stall 1 on the centre-stands' strip. Make it a 14 runner race and stall 7 is now where stall 1 was for the 8 runner race (or very close) and Stall 1 is beyond centre track. Plenty of examples of this at other tracks and the BHA needs to ensure that draws are more consistent (Wolverhampton's 7f Chute a fascinating example. Because this start dumps the field onto the far bend after 50 yards it really matters where Stall 1 is. In an 8 runner race it is in a usable place, make the fields bigger and it gets increasingly difficult to overcome efficiently.) NOTE - Darnathean a classic e.g. of a hyped up 'Market Mover' in the morning that evaporated in the afternoon and then swept under the carpet by the Pundits. Trainer D'Arcy is a classic front-loader and the earliest runners he has are typically the usable early ones. He used to try to win FTO with them in April but in 2009-10 this seems to have gone away. So a 'punt' for the trainer a few years back probably more interesting than it is now FTO. But, Pundits do not want to engage with any difficult thinking (like Peter Thomas' use of the phrase "Statz Smatz..." when faced with having to consider such information. Hmm, how can we put that... "Half-wit, colour piece writer, as tired of racing as he appears to be of life...etc"). But, given the trainer record of starting usable ones early presume he is better than his final placing here. Attended the pace ok in a race which put pressure on those behind and an ok size. Perhaps look for a worthwhile punt STO. One thing to Check given the possible Draw Effect is what strips DBoy & Mousie raced on and whether DBoy was at a disadvantage. At Leicester on debut he appeared outpaced and plain too slow in the last 2f to go with the leading pair. Here, he was being driven along early. Too slow again with the course in faster condition or partly slowed down by the strip he was racing on? But, poor form today and with an 8L gap back from the winner not a race to be looking at much for the future. David Barron on of a number of stables who has been through a slump and now showing green shoots. Excellent record with 2yos 1999-2003 then 2004-7 decline in most stats. Less runners in 2008-10 but WBR and Strike Rate better and less runs and WpW. Used to get regular FTO winners bust this has become another patchy stat since 2005 with three blank years. But, other than the poor 2008 the earliest debuts have normally been season winners and tend to show up well on debut and often place. Mitchum found a soft race here so able to turn that profile into a clear win byt running OR50s form. Showed a full knee action and clearly suited by the surface. Given a full ride and a shorter type, but ok power behind, of his sire who has a good record with 2yos. Trainer tends to be realistic about the quality of his horses and you would wonder how much improvement this one has. Where the trainer places him should be a soild indicator of what he thinks rather than a hopeful 'tilt'. Mousie small and limited and holds the form down and ran on the preferred strip of track. Bojangle another uncompetitive early debut for the trainer and never involved. Nicked a volunteer 4th late on by switching left to the centre track to find a small response towards the fading placed horses. Manderston the fourth Johnston debut as he trys to not get behind schedule like 2010. But the 4th poor effort and his horses do not look ready enough yet. This one had also been entered for the seller at Catterick on the following day so presumably a limited partnership horse for the stable rather than the Arab owned blossomer. Instructive to look at the list of David Evans' debuts to date after another two awful ones here. By this time last year he had run 12 horses for 1 x FTO win and 1 x STO win (by a useless small one). 8 of those 12 won during the year and they included his best two runners (Irish Gp3 & Listed winnrs) and his best two sprint handicappers. There was a tailing off in quality in the later FTOs in his large early batch. The remaining 21 debuts produced just 5 x season winners and the last 9 just one (a 4TO surprise nursery win). In 2011 he has already run 18 with 3 x FTO wins (2 by solid or better types in Redair & Jack Who's He and one accident for Jawking in a farce). You presume the FTO winners are most of the best he has and a horse like Choice Of Remark his solid handicapper but what else in that group? Probably down to hoping that Ortea, Si Sealy and perhaps Adranian have some development potential. Unless the 20+ he will start later April onwards have some surprises in rather than just the OR60s handicappers and odd 7f+ type (like Kumbeshwar). |