British 2yo Racing - 2011 Race Result :- 1 : Sat, March 26th

BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2011 Season Race Result

Race 1 : Sat, March 26th
Kempton Park 2:30, 5f Maiden (4)

2011 Season Home
2011 Results

[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.

GOING	TIME	RcPc	VP
STD	60.46 [Compare]	2	None

	Horse	SP	[EST]	Run	Wnr	Trainer	Dw	Hf	Run Notes
1	Redair	2.75	50	1		P. D. Evans	4	2	Supp 10/3, BOk PDv Resp, Prg Erl, 2nd+0.5f, -2L+ Hf Ngl, Eff-2f Resp, Po, Ld-1.5f HgL & FlashTL to Whp, Po to Ln SHgL
2	Bubbly Ballerina	7	44	1	A	A. Bailey	7	1	B1 Wd, Eff Erl & Prg, XF+0.5f, Eff+2f IncrPc, 2+Clr Hf, SHgL-2f, Hdd-1.5f SHmp, Resp-1f+ & Po, StallLt
3	He's So Cool	1.25	30	1	D	W. G. M. Turner	1	4	Supp 6/4, P-1 RL Ngl Resp, -15Hf SOutpcd, po-1.5f, Resp to Ln
4	Ciara Boo	16	17	1		P. D. Evans	5	3	BkWL PNgl, Dv+1f SInx, H-2 +2f, Ngl Hf, po-2f, Stall ins-1f, Fd ins-0.5f
5	Snowed In	8	8	1	A	J. S. Moore	8	7	BLh-3 Wdst P-3 Inx, XB+0.5f SAdf, QInx+1.5f HdUp Unbal Dv, -23Hf, Resp-1f+ & po to Fdrs
6	Umph	10	7	1		P. D. Evans	2	6	BOk SFre, H-2 Erl, Sqz-2 +0.5f, XB+1f JkQt, -22Hf, po-1.5f+ HnH, NPIR?
7	Lilygloves	10	-5	1		M. R. Channon	6	5	B-1 PLh-2 HdUp, LsGrnd+0.5f, -18Hf Dv Inx, po Str, Fd-1f
NR	Seven Year Itch				S	P. D. Evans	3		NR = Declared NR at 13:43 bec 'Horse not identified on course'

SUMMARY

NOTE = From March 30th, 2011 the BHA are changing the Stalls Numbering for RH courses. This race the ONLY one run on RH course before that date in the 2yo Season. Therefore, the Draws in the Performance Database for this race have been flipped around so that they match the new ones = Draw Natural = count of how many lanes off the rail.

NOTE = This race NOT a £10k Bonus race. Three horses entered but not declared seemed a mostly interesting set.
- Guava = Richard Hannon has regularly used one of the earliest Kempton races (right back to the turf days) to start a Listed or Group quality one (Gilded, Cool Creek, Fat Boy, etc). Guava entered owned by Middleham Park Racing. She has been talked up as a natural and speedy and presume she is a 'Gilded' model. The Partnership website said she was expected to start in May and be aimed for a £10k race. Quite possible she missed this to wait for a £10k race and the early start seems to fit the idea she is a Conditions+ quality filly. You also wonder about whether the £10k bonuses are making a Two-Tier system of quality in Maidens. [Given the fast race and the quality of the first two fillies home you suspect Guava would have been a poor value fav. if she had run and not have beaten the winner off a Hannon prep (even a £10k prep).]
Godber = entered by Channon. Cost 5k as a yearling but by his Trainer's in-house stallion Imperial Dancer. Seemed to be the first string over Lilygloves with jockey Hitchcott switching to her. Trainer has typically started OR50-68 types in this race and Godber perhaps a competitive one in the OR60s?
No Legs = David Evans entered five, declared 4 and ran 3 (one mislaid). The one he did not declare was No Legs, a full sister to Star Rover (won this race in 2009 by 4L at 12/1) and Jamesway (won the 4th race of 2010 in late March) while the dam won the Brocklesby. No Legs was bred ideally to win the race. She did not appear to go through the sales ring so the price does not give an indication of whether she has her brother's talent. Perhaps an ok one and not declared to keep her and Redair apart?

Wild race with a very strong Pace set by Bubbly Ballerina pressing on early and crossing to rail from wide draw. Pressed the pace on again around halfway on the bend and stretched the field out further. With Lilygloves & Snowed In very green and Umph given a quiet ride the field was spread over the best part of 25 lengths at halfway. BB more than 2L clear of Redair at that point with Ciara Boo third but 10L off the leader despite being competent and the front two just too fast (good) for her & He's So Cool.
RACE QUALITY = Fast time for early season 2yos assisted by the strong pace. Listed quality Star Rover won the same race for Evans in 61.21s carrying 5lbs more so Redair put up a similar effort. Would presume she is Early-mid Season Listed quality and the type the trainer would get a couple more wins from. She should stay 6f but looks a very precocious, and ready, smaller physical type.
Bubbly Ballerina a taller, rangier model and set the strong pace without appearing to be working that hard. Lost some focus into the straight, hanging a little left, and then when crossed by Redair as that filly led. Responded well after that. Trainer Bailey has changed his approach since 2007-8 and now targets debut wins and his earliest runners often his best early filly. Bubbly Ballerina fits well with this model and probably Listed class and might have some scope to develop in later season after the trainer's regular mid-season lull.

Worth recording the Evans jockey bookings. Trainer uses a variety of jockeys but has a core of regulars and it can be difficult with these multiple runner races to know which is the best. Gannon the more regular rider for the stable but not always First String. Redair originally down to be ridden by Lee Vickers who has not ridden a winner for the stable. Gannon down to ride the poor profile Seven Year Itch. The other pair ridden by regular occasionals in Doe & McLaughlin. Despite the set-up Redair shortened early on Betfair to become the shortest price of the four with SYItch drifting from shortest. At 13:43 SYItch declared an NR because she had not been 'Identified on-course' (hadn't she got there with the other three?). Which meant that Gannon took over on Redair. With a betting stable this would clearly look like a put-up job. Evans not really been a FTO betting stable but SPs shortening over the years and Redair looks some sort of targetted effort. Is Seven Year Itch better than Redair (in which case she will win FTO) or is the Gannon angle not real? Overall view not helped by Umph being given a ride that looked like a 'Tomorrow' effort. Check how he goes STO and seemed to have been sold to owner Folkes soon after the declaration for this race. Ciara Boo always a long price and given an involving ride and presumably ran close to what she is capable of.
[Update = Seven Year Itch was a NR because her Passport was not available at the course. The BHA rules state these must be available and be inspected. Trainer Evans fined a fixed amount for the offence of £290. ]
OTHERS = He's So Cool an unusual favourite for Turner and blown away by two faster fillies. Trainer normally gets his strongest debuts from his Brocklesby runner or Teversham owner-breds (Lord & Lady prefixes/suffixes). Runners in this race, not for Teversham, have not been that good. His FTOs can be variably ready in early season despite his reputation. On the evidence here a mix of HSC not being good enough and a little underdone for the day. Trainer must have better ones.
Lilygloves too green but probably limited OR50s type anyway.
Snowed In clueless from a wide draw and 20L+ behind the leaders at halfway. Some response in the last 1F. Trainer Moore has started season placers or worse for the most part in this early Kempton race. Snowed In worth another chance to improve and trainer runners can blossom STO. Not one to discount entirely.