BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2011 Season Race Result
Race 34 : Sat, April 23rd
Nottingham 6:00, 5.1f Maiden (5)
[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.
GOING
 TIME RcPc VP
GF 61.96
[Compare]		 0Link

Horse SP [EST]Run Wnr Trainer Dw Hf Run Notes
1Ortea5.5482 P. D. Evans 9
1
Supp 7/1, BLh-1 RL, Dv Erl Resp, Prg+0.5f & Ld, CmfLd Ln2, IncrPc-2f+, Po ins-2f, 2Clr-1f, po ins-0.5f SHgL
2Royal Purse25281 P. D. Evans 8
3
PCarrLh-1, SInx Erl Dv Resp, 2R+0.5f Sttld, SOutpcd-2f, po-1.5f, 2nd ins-1f, po, HgL-0.5f & Fd, Skinny
3Bluebells Are Blue8281 E. Johnson-Houghton 5
4
BOk, Resp Erl, 2R+0.5f Sttld, TvCmf, SOutpcd-2f, po, Stall ins-1f, Fd-0.5f
4Perfecto Tiempo25251 R. Harris 6
7
BOk, Inx Erl Dv TTR, LsGrnd+0.5f, HgL+1f Dv, SInxOv, po-2f, HgL-1f+ SUnbal, 6th ins-1f, SRespLt to Fdrs
5Aljosan20161 P. D. Evans 3
5
BLh-1, SFre Erl & Prg Cent, 2R+1f Wdst, DvHf, SOutpcd-2f, po-1.5f, Fd-0.5f+, Small
6Jimmy The Lollipop1222 C K. A. Ryan 4
2
LdgLn Erl Sttld, 2nd+1f, Ngl+1.5f, Dv-2f+, po-2f, 2nd-1f & Stall, 3rd-0.5f & Fd, Tired Lt
7Outlaw Torn8172 N A. J. McCabe 2
6
Hrs Lkg Down BLh-2 Wdst ShkgHd, Dv Erl, Resp+0.5f & Prg, Mdfld+2f vOk, DvHf, SOutpcd-2f HgL, Stall ins-1.5f, Fd ins-1f
8Red Socks6151 G. A. Kelleway 7
8
Drift 5/1, B-1 PBmp-2, Dv Erl XB, SHgL+1f SInx, DvHf, SOutpcd-2f SInx, po, Stmbl-1f+ Unbal, Fd-0.5f+
NRWolfgang A R. Hannon 1
NR = Vet's Cert (Sore Shins)
NREn Ete W. G. M. Turner 10
NR = Vet's Cert (Coughing)


SUMMARY
 Warm day but clouded over before this evening meeting and Thunderclaps from before the start of this race. No appreciable rain until after the 5th race. Very Light wind. This the second race and the first three were all 5.1f races run on the stands' rail side of the Outer Course. First race a 5.1f, Class 5, handicap for 3yo fillies won in 60.62s by an OR70 rater. Third race an older horse, Class 6, handicap won by the OR51 rated bottomweight (OH2 with a 7lbs apprentice) carrying 10lbs less than Ortea before the jockey's claim factored in. That winner able to run 59.79s. Racing away from the rail any disadvantage?

Photo - of the Field in the last Furlong.

Not a strong field on profile and made less interesting with Wolfgang's absence as a cheap one for a major owner. Trainer Hannon won this race in 2010 with a newcomer but sent his debut runner on the day for the same owner to Musselburgh (for a £10k bonus race & with Dobbs who was here last year). Jockey Gannon able to get away with a comfortable bit of front-running on Ortea and able to execute the same ride she gave to Choice Of Remark earlier in the week at Folkestone. But, without the early effort to get the lead from a wide draw and also without any opposition of the quality of Gatepost & Bayleyf. She adds a subtlety to the usual front-runner bit and interesting to see how it caught out all the male jockeys following her here. Rather than abiding strictly to the 'British Rules' of trundle along for 3f then make your effort at the 2 furlong pole (in a 5f race) she increased the pace just after halfway and more than 100yds early before the final 2f mark full kick. The jockeys behind went from sitting comfortably to scrubbing along in 2-3 strides.

At Folkestone she had perhaps misjudged this a bit and increased the pace just before halfway and this had left her 2.5L clear through halfway but that type of effort a bit too early (for the way the horses are trained..). Through halfway JTL within 0.5L of the leader and 3rd-5th forming a Second Rank only 1.5L to 2L back. The pair of slower starters plus PTiempo who had lost ground early in the race through greenness 3L to 5.5L back given the average pace. Which means read the race as a 2F+ sprint with being prominent an advantage. Looking at the Halfway positions to final there were really only two change. These both very late on as the final fades taking place. JTL had faded badly late on at Doncaster and similar here. Went like the 2nd or 3rd best horse for 4f+ then folded quickly late on. Only other change was PT able to stick at it a bit longer than some of the late faders to mug them for 4th on the line. [As a point of interest both juvenile races on the day had very similar shapes. The winner was a STO runner able to dictate the pace and take time to get away from the others but well clear at the line and the full fading had got going behind them in the last 0.5F. In both races there were little changes in position from halfway with the most notable being the full fade of the 2nd runner though halfway to finish well back. The 'Coincidence' question then comes up because both those 2nd place faders were Kevin Ryan early, LM sprinters, on STO and both producing late race fades again.]

Overall view of the race would be a moderate one with the OR70s type in Ortea eventually putting some distance back to a suspect group. The Garbage Gap for the race is directly behind him and the Evans' fillies in 2nd & 5th are well short of Open Maiden quality. Of those behind the Garbage Gap there are a number of candidates for something being OR64-72 level usable but with caveats on all of them.

Ortea supported on debut and seemed to be one of the solid ones in the raft of early debuts Evans had. Attended the pace there on an uphill 5f on softer going and faded. On a flat, fast going 5f here and with a comfortable lead able to stand up the OR70+ profile. Short type but solidly built and fully fit for the day (Photo). OR70s type and can probably stay 6f+.

Evans other two runners both cheap fillies including an owner bred for the Holdcrofts (Bearstone Stud owners who stand Indesatchel) where the job is to get any 2yo win he can to help the stud. But, both negatives in Paddock Review and OR50s at best and Aljosan perhaps no even that. Royal Purse an okish height but very lightly built to the point of being scrawny. Like two planks nailed together and narrow bodied. Very fit and a typical trier attitude (that Evans seems able to produce without 'wiring' horses) and able to finish 2nd by being prominent behind a usable pace but behind a gap to her stablemate and with a lack of any solid debut efforts. Aljosan a typical small trundler type for £3k and a bit better built than Royal Purse. If you could win a seller a good result. She was much too competitive in this finish to be taking a positive view of those around her without valid excuses.

In this context worth thinking back to the Windsor maiden that Lord Ofthe Shadows won on April 11th (race 17). In that race two similar Evans fillies ran prominently in 3rd & 5th with the 'promising' males from major stables mixed in with them. That pair have since run together at Redcar in a moderate Auction races without winning. One of them is in the seller at Warwick tomorrow, along with the winner of that Auction event. A similar set-up here with the Evans three doing a bit of work and finishing in the order the stable would probably expect and providing a good framework to judge the others against.

Kevin Ryan's typical pattern to early season debuts would be run a few competitive sprinters (the stable is very 5-6f oriented) in the OR64-74 range. Not better class ones but precocious, ready sprinters who will start in early April. These will not be up to winning FTO in a solid race and should peak STO and run well 3TO and then trundle through the season not improving much and ending up in nuseries and the OR decreasing as the over-rating for the early win settles down. He then mixes in his better early types in the period from mid-April to the end of the month & perhaps leak into early May. These can win FTO on ability and develop further. His better types to start in March or very early April in recent years would not get much past Dario Gee & Here Now And Why. So, the wuestion this year would be whether Hamza is the 'real thing' or found a soft race to win FTO. He got withdrawn STO last week so no further info on that. Since JTLollipop started in the Brocklesby so might have been a better one. But he ran moderately overall and the quality of the Brocklesby in general looks suspect. JTL a typical neat, smaller sprinter that Ryan has lots of in Review and, quite possibly, ran as well as he can currently here. Ran better than the 6th place here and was still 3rd until folding entirely later on. This similar to Doncaster and he appears not to stay 5f now (short runner). Which puts him in a tricky position because can he fulfil his OR65-73 potential before the precociousness wears off.

As ever, we have been here before and the beaten odds-on favourite in this race in 2009 was Gillburg. Trained by Ryan and on STO and in a much tougher edition of the race than this. He eventually won 7TO before proving uncompetitive off OR76 in nurseries and sold off at 2yo to go abroad (a common end for these early stable sprinters). Look at this - Comparison Photo - of JTL & Gillburg and how do they compare and is JTL going to have a similar season when he stays 5f, or more.

What to make of the others? Bluebells Are Blue an early runner for the stable who does front-load to some extent. An odd shape in Paddock Review although the positive of a solid build. Looks different in different pictures and ok power for OR70ish but not convincing overall. Seemed to be going ok, or beter, before Gannon kicked but unable to make any progress in the sprint against the likes of Royal Purse. Very green, mentally young in the prelims so has some potential to improve but one to check NTO rather than expecting a blossoming. [Trainer's comment on her website on the day before the run = "We have our second 2yo runner as well this evening, he is takes a bit [of time?] to catch on, and will come on for the experience, but I think he will go nicely."]

Ron Harris has had an increased number of 2yos recently after making his name with older sprinters and cast-offs. Still learning and the debuts can be poor and the horses too green and wild. Perfecto Tiempo sweated up late and green in the race but not bad overall as a debut by the trainer's standards. By a sire who has a remarkably good record in his first two seasons with getting winners from limited opportunities (sire died in 2008 so his 2011 reps will be his last). Harris had an OR90+ rated 2yo winner by the sire in 2010 who cost even less than this one. Another not to be a classic shape but solidly enough built. A positive view overall as a development winner and rate over OR70+

Alan McCabe's juvenile winners tend to win or show up prominently FTO. Which meant one as expensive as Outlaw Torn starting in the Brocklesby was of each-way interest. But a negative in Review there and you wish you could go back to the day he was sold as a yearling. Has he lost something in development or did he never have it? (i.e. what would make him cost that much). Ran too freely FTO and a slow start here from a wide draw. Used what pace he had to get back to the group behind the ordinary pace but then unable to finish the race off again. Doesn't look that athletic and doesn't carry himself well. Perhaps not really a 5f horse but looking a nursery project, at best and not a good use of the money.

Red Socks bought recently at the Kempton 2yo breeze up sale and you can look at the breeze he did that made him cost his amount. Difficult to judge because the video in jerky and the aspect ratio wrong but it doesn't look athletic or well balanced and the price on the high side. A slow start here as an excuse but not travelling ok even to this pace and getting unblanced and stumbling (clip heels?) and fading late. No promise on this and check next time. (Slab fronted?).

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