British 2yo Racing - 2011 Race Result :- 44 : Sat, April 30th

BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2011 Season Race Result

Race 44 : Sat, April 30th
Goodwood 2:50, 5f Maiden (5)

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2011 Results

[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.

GOING	TIME	RcPc	VP
G	58.7 [Compare]	0	None

	Horse	SP	[EST]	Run	Wnr	Trainer	Dw	Hf	Run Notes
1	Foxtrot India	14	56	1		P. Winkworth	2	3	B-1 PRh, Last Erl Resp, Prg+0.5f, 3rd+1f 2Wd, Eff-2f Resp, PO, Ld ins-1f, PO to Ln
2	North Star Boy	1.1	55	1	M	R. Hannon	1	2	Drift 10/11, BkWL Wdst, XF+1f 2nd 1Wd Sttld, Eff-2f & Ld, PO, Hdd ins-1f Resp, PO to Ln HnH
3	Noor Zabeel	6.5	45	1	M	M. R. Channon	3	1	PNgl Resp, Ld Erl, XF+0.5f & Ld, Dv-2f+, Hdd-2f SOutpcd, Po in 3rd RL, po-0.5f
4	Backtrade	8	42	1		A. M. Balding	5	7	Supp 12/1, B-1 PNgl, Resp Erl, SFre+1f & FFH SUnbal, SwcR Hf, SPrg-2f+ to 4th 2R, Eff-2f, po SInx, Fd Lt
5	Evervescent	28	37	1	A	J. S. Moore	7	6	P-1 SInx, Ngl Erl TTR, Resp+1f SFre SHmp & Hld, Dv-2f+ SInx, Outpcd-2f, po ins-1f HnH
6	Roman Soldier	3	36	1	M	J. Noseda	8	4	Supp 9/2, BOk RL, Ngl Erl SInx, Allow XFr+0.5f SHgR, SFre for 1f, Outpcd-2f Inx, SResp-0.5f HnH
7	Main Focus	11	22	1	M	J. H. M. Gosden	4	5	BkWL, LdgLn Erl Ngl, Inx+0.5f Allow XFrs, SFre+1f SFFH SHgR, HgR+2f Cent HdL Inx, po ins-2, Fd -1f, Eased-0.5f
NR	Stepper Point				N	W. R. Muir	6		NR = Self Cert (Lame)

SUMMARY

Good going with Going Stick 8.1 on the straight course and 9.0 (GF) on the round course. 1mm of rain overnight. Stiff wind on day, mostly a Tailwind.

Notably fast conditions on the day despite the 'Good' going and presumably assisted by the strong tailwind. Not many 5f races run on the course and the list of horses that has run faster than this (in the range 57.88s to 58.54s) draws largely on the Gp3 Molecomb Stakes and a list of mainly well known Group types. Fleeting Spirit, Finjaan, Zebedee, Monsieur Chevalier, Strike Up The Band. But the list includes some lesser types like OR81 nursery winner Another True Story. Icesolator won a small field conditions race here in 58.74s and OR71 rated nursery winner Empress Jain ran 57.82s. Class 3 handicap later on card run in a quick 56.29s (faster than the RP standard time by 1.01s) by a 4yo carrying 1lbs less plus an A3. Which puts in perspective how fast the conditions were on the straight course.

Hannon has won this race for the last two years with STO Icesolator (Listed winner) & Casual Glimpse (Cnds winner sold on to R. Ogden who has Roman Soldier on FTO here for Noseda. Hannon's website Friday 29th = "We enjoyed a lot of luck at Goodwood last year, so, hopefully, we can carry on where we left off at their first meeting. We won the two-year-old race last year with Casual Glimpse, and North Star Boy went well enough in a gallop with recent Windsor winner Lord ofthe Shadows (earmarked for Chester next week [Lily Agnes] on Thursday to suggest he'll be hard to beat on his debut."

Race made less interesting with Stepper Point a NR. He had travelled well down the rail at Newbury before a bad fade. But, if he could see the race out and got loose down the rail with the others green to various degrees then an interesting setup. A precedent for that with trainer Muir winning this race in 2007 with STO Enodoc (OR72 rater overall) beating a solid field and the 2nd a later Listed winner.

Without him the result conformed to one of the two possible results you would have expected just from the trainer's methods and with a little profiling on top. Hannon targets Goodwood and tends to win a high percentage of the 2yo races here. The debut runners tend to be better types who can compete to win FTO. NSB a bigger type and well built and trading at odds-on on BF in the morning. Ran well and would have been a clear winner (one possible result) wihtout FI. Solid OR80+ although the time here to be taken in context of the fast conditions.

Peter Winkworth used to be the star of FTO P&L and got regular long SP debut wins. Then in 2009 he had one FTO success (9/2 in May) and none in 2010 when the debuts overall were poor. He seemed to have a mostly poor group in 2010 and one of the two usable ones all but refused to race FTO but won STO at 25/1 so the seed was there. Which meant the other possible result was Foxtrot India being that bit readier than the Hannon runner and able to beat him FTO even if not as good a long term prospect. After 1f that didn't look likely with NSB having a comfortable lead on the rail and FIn starting slowest and having to do some work to get to 3rd at halfway, just under 1L behind and suggesting the early pace not strong. Race then developed into a 2f sprint between these two with FI picking up a bit better and NSB coming back to him at the line. Probably a lesser type than NSB and less scope to improve. One oddity worth noting is that his half brother (Kirstys Boy) won the race in 2009 (and failed to place afterwards).

Rest of the result makes sense with a Channon runner placing but not able to go with the two better types. Noor Zabeel smaller but solid build and would have needed to be taken to a lesser track to be a debut winner for Jaber Ab. Always likely to find something too good at a better track but run competently. Had been a negative on the Gallops views and always niggled along to keep up uphill (in gallops where the Rock Of Gibraltar colt seemed to cruise through it). Perhaps OR70s and not a certain winner STO but a solid type.

Andrew Balding typical starts with the odd 5f runners in April and early May. They are rarely ready to win and the quality has been variable over the years. Probably because of the small numbers and he starts the odd ones that are ready and they might be any quality. Rather than picking out naturals and competitive ones and front-loading. Backtrade from an old dam who has produced only one winner since 2000 (an oddity as that was GDWD FTO winner Marriage Value) in 2005. Lots of expensive duds mixed in since. The early start some sort of positive but green here and unbalanced at times. Did enough to think her is usable but check STO for Open Maiden level.

Stan Moore seems to start better ones, or usable ones, at GDWD and has started some of the best here incl Total Gallery. At €3,500 as a yearling Evervescent doesn't promise a lot. But, a solid, smaller type of his sire who gets small ones that surprise as 2yos. Should be usable at some level.

The final two runners would both be positive in the Market on trainers and connections but dismissable here. Both Roman Soldier & Main Focus possess non-5f pedigrees and you wonder why they have not been held back to start at 6f (the first 6f maiden at this course next week). Unlike Hannon RS runs for Noseda who tends to start better ones elsewhere. Noseda debut winners start at 3/1 or less and often strongly supported and odds-on. Lukewarm trading at 4/1 to 5/1 and getting down to 3/1 late on is actually a negative. Ordinary sized one by an ordinary sire, starting at a non-target course over an unsuitable distance with a second level jockey on. Which puts the run into context.

Main Focus built like a sprinter despite his pedigree to the point of looking a bit stodgy athletically. The previous Gosden debuts at 5f this year have been too green to compete and another here. Hanging right a lot with the head up looking stupid. But the trainer fixes them STO if the ability is there and enough substance to this one. An interesting short-term project to support his 4 x 5f debuts so far STO if they are value.