Kempton General - Has the £10,000 bonus produced a better field than usual after a soft version in 2011 as the first bonus year? Will the Draw versus Halfway position balance follow the usual pattern? On the tight, right-handed, 5f course there is a less than 2 furlong run once into the straight. Which means that prominent running is an advantage and deep closing rare. In later season nurseries with more experienced 2yos a well drilled front-runner, who does not go berserk in the lead will be hugely difficult to run down in the short straight. Maiden race fields often split naturally into contenders-for-the-day at the front from early on to help out the prominent bias. It can also help wide drawn runners to get into the first half of the field to halfway if the stragglers inside are numerous enough.
- In the last 3 years the equivalent of this race has been won by the second through halfway drawn 4th of 7, the 3rd through halfway drawn 8 of 11 (bigger Hannon trained type) & the halfway leader drawn 2 of 10. All draws changed to mean a low number is closer to the rail and the bend. The two other April juvenile races at the meeting in 2010 had winners as second through halfway from 4 of 4 and the front runner who was drawn on the rail. The winner of the fillies' maiden at the track last Saturday was won by the 4th through halfway (leaders went to hard) drawn 5 of 11. Given all of that back story how important is knowing how your choice might try to run it's race in betting terms? What factors might you draw on to make your estimate? How would that knowledge help in assessing the relative performances of the horses after the race?
Chilworth Icon - Will Channon manage to get a 5f win with a Sixties Icon? Did this one show anything more, or less, than Perfect Words in the Gallop video on Channon's website from March 20th? Which is the juvenile from that gallop that is probably worth following? Will this be a typical standard quality type that the trainer starts in these early Kempton events? He has started 7 in them since 2006, when the course opened, and three have placed but in softer versions and some smaller fields. Those 7 split as 5 moderate ones and two low OR70s season winners of limited development potential. Does this one match that profile? The better end of that group would perhaps make 3rd-6th place here and behind that would be seller strugglers. How will that map out?
Fortinbrass - Have his early season runners become less competitive or did 2011 show that with the right quality they can place and occasionally win FTO? Has he settled in his normal routine after his move to a new stables and gallops a while back? Is this his nippy early runners with hints of OR80 at some point in the season but a smaller precocious one lacking real development potential? Will you know your fate after half a furlong if you back it? Beckett typically runs 1-3 juveniles in April and well before the second batch and main season starts. During 2005-8 they would be ready to compete FTO often and a couple of April debut wins including in the equivalent race (in a softer versions?). 2009-10 he started limited fillies in April and the debuts were poor and needed a lot of development to be minor winners. 2011 and back with the colts in April and a debut 2nd & 4th but then both disappeared for long breaks. The 'Run Style' of his better colts debuts in April is usually in the 2nd to 5th range and he forward end of that would be ok to compete to win here. Given he is drawn 8 will his chance depend on being able to get prominent from that wide starting point?
Hats Off - Might he be the most interesting horse in the field? Is the trainer front-loading his better 2yos this year as he has recently? Will this one be able to produce the typical track 3rd to 5th through halfway that the trainer's early 2yos usually do? Will that be close enough to be able to win or just to make up ground into the places? Has the trainer made the right choice since he said in his video blog he would rather come here to compete for the £10,000 bonus rather go up the road to Folkestone? Noting that Folkestone would be too firm and undulating and to rail draw biased. Does the picture of Hats Off give the right impression of a likeable, bulky, head down trier? Does the fact he was working with the 3yo Bayleyf (the equivalent early runner for the stable in 2011) and looking bigger than him enhance that impression correctly?
Lea Valley Black - Will this be another typical Dascombe debut or is this one zippier than the pedigree suggests? Since his first two debuts have been 7th through halfway after bungled starts will this on throw his draw positive away? Both debuts in 2012 have placed but in soft races without ever getting involved properly, is this race tougher? Will the Market be as uniformative again?
Lyric Ace - Back to the ongoing question of hos good the Hannon early Kempton runners are? Up to 2007 they were often Group class but a mix of of OR80 winners and duff ones since. Last Saturday the potential good one was an NR and we saw the duff one. This was an expensive one for first season sire Thousand Words and will Hannon continue his record of often buying the best from new sires? Will this one prove the solid strong sprinter he promised in his yearling picture. Is he more likely to be the OR80 type than the Listed+ quality one that would be needed to wind this for a typical Hannon debut?
Marvelino - Is he really as small as the picture from Doncaster makes him look? Did he prove there that he is nowhere near the quality of the Brocklesby winner his trainer had with Hearts Of Fire? Will he show whatever spark he had shown for his trainer to at least think he was a solid early runner? Given he ran front-rank at Doncaster and folded tamely will they try to hold him up here? Or get on with it and lead and let him set the target for the others into the straight? If he does not lead who will and will it help the other solid profile types to get into the race? Will we actually see something that tells us that any of last week's hype was real? Like him leading and then pulling away in the straight?
Modern Society - Given he is the first 2yo runner for the novelty 'Paint' horse sire what will he actually look like? Since the sire had only 3 yearlings sold with 2 at very cheap prices does the 11,000 guineas for this one actually mean a solid physical type given the unappealing pedigree? Will Andrew Reid ever retire and stay retired? Will he continue his solid record of getting 2yos winners from limited goes? Will this manage the sort of middling 4-6th place debut that would indicate an ok one?
Mosstang - Will the trainer be able to continue his solid record with 2yos in his third year with the stable's licence or was the 2011 downturn a sign of something? A good debut wuld be 4th-6th range for a usable one from his stable. Does the poor draw and thin profile suggest that is unlikely? Will this one prove more precocious than is typical for the sire or will it need 6f and mid-season on to find a level?
Baileys Jubilee - Was Heavy Metal's run typical of the early season debuts for Johnston? Belt along in fron rak and the fold? Would even a better type from him need late April and a simpler race set-up to compete to win? Given the wide draw and forcing Run Styles is this one going to end up hung 2-3 wide on the bend trying to run prominently as a negative? If there is a lot of the field wanting to run Stalk&Pounce races is the leader's role going to be easier to grab? Does the picture of her correctly show a likeable, short but strong & bulky, willing terrier who will give it a real go?
Coconut Kisses - Why no apprentice for a Turner runner? Presumably Mulrennan is riding through the Mick Easterby link up? His 4 debuts to date have seen 3 who front-ran for one win by just holding on in a weak seller and two fades to 4-5th. The other debut win got behind in a race set-up that suited that Run Style which is very unlikely here without a pace war. Given this one is drawn widest in 10 is there any way for the jockey to get her to a usable Run Style of either a comfortable lead or a stalking position behind the leaders? Has the trainer really got a better group or his horses that much readier this year as a 2-4 record with debuts might suggest?
Musselburgh General - Has the £10,000 bonus produced a better field in this race as well? 2011 was a solid group and similar here and better than the typical standard and especially than the laughable, non bonus, 2010 edition. Will Just Past Andover set up a simpler race to work to than at Kempton? Drawn away from the rail but might have only 1-2 horses to clear to lead comfortably?
Jordanstown - Will this be back to the more typical early runner for Ryan after a FTO win in the race last year with an OR88 one? Normally he runs compact smaller sprinters (say or OR64-73) early who peak STO and then lack development. A place in this sort of race would be a good effort and 4-5th more likely and then not certain to be season winners if they only place STO. Which type does this one look on profile? Even last season when the trainer had a ridiculously high FTO strike rate he only had the one early debut win before the other came in May-July. Will the decision to target 5-6f racing fully and juveniles for the stable continue to produce the same good results as last year?
Just Past Andover - Will he confrim the view that he is borderline for open maiden class in the long term but set an interesting standard for the others here? How good would a better newcomer need to be to beat him?
Polski Max - Will Fahey improve his FTO win record with 5fs and early? Is this one better quality than those he has run in the race in recent year's as he would probably need to be to win? Does the fact Fahey was more upbeat about this one than Kempton winner Woodland Mill mean anything given this may be a tougher race?
Rated - Will this be the better end of a Channon debut range given his ok record with FTOs here from a very small sample? Is this the better end of the Sixties Icon's he has and will the speedier dam help. Will he be hanging left as he does in the Gallops videos. Does the fact he is working with a different group of 2yos than the Perfect Words set at home mean anything? Are Pay Freeze & Bungleinthejungle the pair from his set to be more interested in? Especially if this one goes ok.
Someone's Darling - Is this another filly running early for Goldie who will prove he doesn't run them early unless they are ok? He has run a total of 3 juveniles in April in the last 10 years, all fillies. Two have won FTO (Primo Heights here and Eternal Instinct at Haydock) with one returned at 33/1 and the other shortening from that level. The only other to run in April was Rothesay Dancer who was 10th at Musselburgh FTO but then 3rd of 9 at Thirsk in mid-April at 66/1. She went on to win 11 races in an 106 race career and rated O80+ at best. Which means regardless of the cheap price and the non-5f sire Someone's Darling is an interesting filly because she shouldn't be here unless, what seems to be, a good judge thinks she has something.
