Southwell General - A small field here so the draw will probably be insignificant but how will it develop during the season? Will low draws racing centre to far side be an advantage or will the winter standard of stands' side strip being ok continue? How will the normal bias towards an advantage to prominent racing at the track work with these early 2yos? In this small field will there not be the pace pressure to produce a closing winner?
Crystal Cove - Will this debut match in with the summary given for the trainer for his first runners at Redcar? That he gets debut winners in April with close to his best 2yos and mostly at Ripon. His other few wins before mid-May will be odd S-3TO wins by horses that made solid debuts. Will this one be a solid type needing the debut to develop from? A home bred for the trainer out of a dam who was one of his April Ripon FTO winners. By a good sire but not that precocious although the dam adds some zip. Does the fact the trainer's main jockey is at Pontefract mean anything? Winston rides here and the stable use him on some of their best so perhaps a halfway call that this is an ok one but will need the debut. Trainer often front-loads some usable ones in the early runners and this ones has the profile to be a solid debut to build from. Trainer ran three in two divisions of the equivalent maiden in 2010 with a 2nd for the useful Mappin Time behind a tough Fahey FTO and two uncompetitive 4ths by OR50-60s types. If there isn't a Fahey equivalent here and this one isn't that far behind Mappin Time in quality how might it fair in this edition?
Hillbilly Boy - Sire only gets odd 5f winners and often with better types who actually need further. How will this one fare as a debut for Turner? Will it steam off in front like his debuts have tended to this year? If he does so he will put pressure on the others but will he see the 5f out given how the Turner debuts have gone this year? Are they improving to STO? Would he set the race up for a competent S&P runner who can stick with him? Is there one in this field?
Khyber Bridge - Did he run better than it appeared in a reasonable early season seller FTO? He showed pace and did he run on the softer strip on the stands' side to his disadvantage? Will he probably improve and be more prominent and competitive than his odds suggest but still come up a it short in quality in this group?
Lady Raffa - Did Michael Dods have a poor year with FTOs in 2011? Did something change after following all of his debuts often leads to good profits and two 100/1 winners in recent years? Does the Market still not take enough notice of his debut runners? Does he need the odd runner or two to get into 'form' with FTOs if they start this early? No debut win from 18 goes in 2011 but a classic example of how the digital Win/No Win mentality can be misleading. Look at his FTOs last year and 11 of 18 placed 2nd or 3rd FTO. The placed runners included 2yos at 100/1, 33/1, 25/1 & two at 16/1. None of the 11 were less than 6/1 FTO. 100% loss in 2011 but very close to strong profits with just a slightly different set of results and perhaps more ridiculous profits as in some previous seasons. Why not just back all his debuts this year since he cannot be that unlucky again in 2012? If you want to be greedy then might you just skip this one? Early debut, cheap filly likely to be neat and small? Bad sire who doesn't get 5f winners in the very few he does get. Could you live with it if she blags a win in a soft field or on plain fitness if the race falls apart?
Somethingaboutmary - As with Tim Easterby last Saturday's questions laid out the Ryan model. Is this another of his 'peak sto' early litle sprinters that need the debut to develop from? Would she need a soft edition to win here as an OR60s type and not quite ready to see the 5f out? Will she be value given the debuts wins tend to come from his better types and normally in batches and mostly in later season apart from the odd ones on turf in April by his best types? Is she likely to be one of his best fillies on profile and with his daughter riding? Why has Well Informed's win been swept under the carpet? Convenience to keep a 'clean' story?
Stripped Bear - Will she have developed into the strong, deep fronted, compact type that the sire gets and promised by her yearling picture? Even if she has will she be ready to win off a Dascombe preparation FTO? Four debuts for him so far this year have produced two uncompetitive places and two moderate runs including by the one horse to run prominently who blew up before the final 1f on softer turf. At what level would the Market price have to be to say this one was a real natural & better type who might manage an early debut win anyway? Rather than just the Market over-valuing the trainer being positive about his horses as a reflex.
Yarmouth General - Will the rain have made the ground so soft that the field will be even smaller? Both Mossgo & Sally Bruce are declared for Lingfield on Wednesday. John Best says on his video blog that the declaration for Mossgo in a similar Auction at Lingfield is just in case the going is too soft to run here. Whcih version of the race's quality will we get? The rubbishy one from 2011 or the strong one from 2010 with lots of later winners and two rated OR90+. Classic examples of how these Auction races with upper limits on what the entrants cost at the sales can be hugely variable. How has the decline in prices at the sales in recent years affected these races?
Mossgo - Will he be 'as advertised' by the trainer on his Video blog? Where he said he was much more metally swicthed on than Hats Off (and Otto The Great who runs on Weds) and very sharp from the gates. Will he be a more typical example of the recent front-loads from the trainer and make the 2nd to 4th range? Will the weight he has to give away prove too much FTO despite looking a competitive physical type at his level? How did he manage to improve from the dreadful, gawky, mess he looked as a yearling?
Eloquent Star - When wil David Evans show us one of his good ones that compete to win FTO? 4 debuts so far and nothing better than 5th andnone further forward than 4th at halfway. Given the size of this field that should change but is this one of his better ones? Does trainer owned with a 5lbs apprentice on sound like a good one?
Out Of The Blocks - Is he likely to be a lazy favourite of indifferent value given the '2' next to his name? Since he was an uncompetitive second FTO and perhaps helped by the strip he ran on what did he actually achieve? He has been seller entered and ran to a seller level FTO. Has he got the ability to go higher than that? Would a solid debut by a horse with more potential be too good for him and make his price look poor value? Usable type at his level and first STO for his trainer and should improve solidly. But how stiff a target does he set, much better than a decent seller level?
Reberty Lee - Interesting horse? Trainer does get strong debuts with solid types (including when working as assistant to his brother Mick in the same yard) but perhaps later in the year. This is a home bred by the family and they got a debut win with the first foal they had from the mare who was useful. Is Tom Queslly riding significant or just a mate of the family showing a bit of willing? Does the early start mean a small one or a natural? What sort of Market price level might be significant in saying what the Quinlan's are expecting? The further under 5/1 the stronger vibe assuming a 5 runner field, say?
Sally Bruce - Gets a lot of weight and also a 7lbs apprentice. Narrow bodied but showed a little bit on debut. Will the Market undervalue her competitiveness? Ought to come up a bit short but in a thin race a similar type won STO last year. If Mossgo does not run and Reberty Lee is a small one then how moderate to poor might this race be?
