Nottingham General - Are things going to pick up next week with Windsor on Monday & Newmarket in midweek? Despite the milder winter we seem to have had a slow start to the season and even more of the 'Phoney' war between Evans, Channon & Turner before a wider group of trainers get properly involved. Has the £10,000 bonuses gathered a lot of the more interesting early runners into the 3 already run and left some of the other races thinner than usual? The Folkestone race tomorrow looks weak so will the bonus races at Leicester on Friday & Windsor be stronger than usual?
Is this essentially a Two Horse Race and the only question to be answered in how good the Hannon runner is and will he be ready to see out a full 5f on softer ground FTO? Might he be good enough to win even underdone? Or will the race fit Evans representative win without being the best horse in the race for the longer, even medium of short term?
Black Monk - Has Hannon gone back to buy the best from the mare since he trained Destinate to be a useful 2yo back in 2004? Has the owner of Destinate (Mr Pescod) bought into this expensive sibling wisely? What sort of start to the season is Hannon going to have? Typically he will start with a few mixed quality that mostly do not win on debut unless they are higher class. In 2009 & 2011 this was the case and the 2010 early debut win blitz looks like an aberration. His start in 2012 has looked more typical but we should be expecting a good one 'soon' and certainly at Newmarket if not before? This one looked the part as a yearling, strong and balanced and already strong looking in front and along the neck. If he has developed well could he be the really good one that is about due? We can trust jockey Dobbs to deliver him competently to give of his best FTO and the question is more of a balance between fitness and ability to be able to deal with the Evans' previous winner. See what the Paddock Review says.
Frosted Off - Why is John Spearing getting started so early this year? Will this be a solid debut given he bred the horse and sold it on so will want to prove something? Why did he send his mare to a more mainstream sire rather than fiddling around with the First Trump, Primo Valentino usable bargain basment types? The trainer has only got FTo wins with two seller runners in April as his first runners of the year. He has run one 2yo so far this year in a seller at Warwick. No win but a competent debut and Black Eider was stil second towards the last furlong before fading behind a Bill Turner race fit winner. He does front-load to some extent and often gets competent debuts from the usable types although a place a good result. Does starting in a Novice mean anything? Hs has only started one other in a Novice in recent years and that obe was another home bred that finished last and was getting beaten in sellers later. Will this be the solid debut for and OR65-73 type that the profile suggests?
Yes Two - Is Rod Millman going to give us more of the same in 2012? Can we now safely ignore all his debut runners but should be blindly following all of his STOs to fall into the long SP winners that make that profitable? Will he live up to his predigree which says nippy 5f type? How much develop has he got given the quote from the traoner in his stable tour? The quote said = "He’s a leggy individual that is only going to improve with time as he strengthens up but is showing plenty of speed in his work and had a trouble-free winter. He’s currently our earliest two-year-old and he is in the next couple of weeks and he could be anything." Since he might be anything will he be a horse? Will the natural 5f bit make any inroads into the uncompetitive debuts the trainer has these days?
The Millman handling of 2yos has changed totally over the last 10-15 years. An oft repeated tale on this website but the early race at Nottingham is a good place just to remind ourselves once more. Go back to the 1997-2003 period and debut wins early with his best 2yos were common. Nottingham was just the place to see them and wins with newcomers in the equivalent race in 1999 with Maktavish and 2003 with Cop Hill Lad plus other solid places. Move on to 2005 and Millman had 4 debut winner and three places by April 6th and won the equivalent of this race with a STO runner. He was THE FTO trainer. What changed? A single FTO win in a soft race in March 2006 and not a single debut win since. In the last three seasons, 2009-11, he has achieved one debut place from 37 attempts and that an accident at 100/1. SPs for FTOs under 20/1 are uncommon. But, he does still front load and most season winners start at 5f. He also still often runs close to his best 2yo early at Nottingham. So, Yes Two has agood chance of being a winner STO or during the season but FTO?
Dreamy Ciara - Will Evans be able to improve his good record in the race further? Wins in 2008-10 with STO runners, the first three in 2010 in a similarly small field and the runner-up last year. Successes for all types from OR45 to OR95 quality overall for him. This race a test of what Dreamy Ciara achieved in winning last time - was that under-rated by this site? Will she get blown away by a more powerful, and classy, type in Black Monk?
Lingfield Outline - An unappealing race overall. There will be a definite non-runner since Mossgo won yesterday and you would presume Sally Bruce will not run since she ran in the same race as Mossgo. Which leaves five. How much do you want to trust Perfect Words? Is he the sort of horse you would want to put money on? Rescued from the seller at Edinburgh by a bit of tactical lameness and hasn't that problem cleared up quickly? Perhaps Mick thinks he can still win a soft Auction event with him. But, limited and lacking much umph to make an effort in later race. Back him and will you be watching the last furlong through your fingers as 'something' finishes along the Concrete Strip in centre track at Lingfield to pick him off? Jamnean looked even smaller and less powerful FTO and would run competently but get run down by anything with with some zip. Fiducia doesn't really look 5f material and her trainer never gets FTO wins, or 5f wins, very rare successes before July and similarly before 4TO. But he does front-load so she might be a development winner. Trainer Dow seems to have gone through the same change as Millman in that if you go back to the 1990s he was training Brocklesby winners. No, really. Which leaves you with a choice between a Turner STO in Caught Napping and another solid debut by a John Best early runner. Both plausible and reasonably acceptable propostions in this set-up. Are the Turner 2yos snapping together STO this year and improving from debut? If this one has grown up mentally and goes a bit less hard in front is he going to set a good standard for the others? How ready will Otto The Great be? Two debuts by the front-loaded usable early 2yos by Best have produced one disappointing effort and a solid FTO win. Best has said that the winner - Mossgo - was a sharp natural and Otto The Great less so. Will that mean a last furlong where jockey Baker tries to organise a somewhat clueless OTG to try to close on the stalling Caught Napping? How annoying would it be if Perfect Words suddenly found he had a third gear?
