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Warwick 2:10, 5f Seller (6) |
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| Horse | SP | [EST] | Run | Wnr | Trainer | Dw | Hf | Run Notes | ||||
| 1 | Severn Bore | 2.5 | 33 | 2 | s | W. G. M. Turner | 1 | UsttlStalls, BOk RL, LdgPr Erl Sttld, Cent Str, Eff ins-2f, 2Clr-1f, po, HgL-0.5f, StallLt, = Bought in 5.8k | ||||
| 2 | Shop Til You Drop | 8 | 18 | 2 | P. D. Evans | 5 | 2ndCols, Trbl Ldg, BOk PRh-1, Resp Erl, 2R+1f, Ngl+1.5f, Swc Stds-Cent Str, Eff-1.5f, 3rd-1f, Clr 2nd-0.5f, FdLt | |||||
| 3 | Suivez L'Argent | 2.25 | 14 | 2 | S | J. M. Tuite | 2 | Drift 15/8, BOk, LdgPr Erl Sttld, -Nk Hf, SwcR to Str & StdsSd, Eff-2f+ ModResp, 4th-1f+, Fd ins-0.5f | ||||
| 4 | Black Eider | 9 | 14 | 1 | J. L. Spearing | 6 | BRh-1 P-1 Dv, Resp Erl, -3L Hf, Cent-Stds Str, Eff ins-2f Resp, po, 2nd-1f+, Stall-0.5f+, FdLt JkQt & Lose 3rd | |||||
| 5 | Silicon Valley | 33 | 6 | 1 | D. J. S. Ffrench-Davis | 7 | Drift 22/1, BRh-2 Wdst, Dv Erl Resp, Ngl+2f, -4L Hf, Outpcd-2f+, SAdf ins-2f, HgL-1f, Fd ins-1f | |||||
| 6 | Relay | 4 | 0 | 3 | R. Hannon | 4 | BOk PNgl, 2R Erl, X to RL+1f, Ngl+1.5f, DvHf HdUp ModResp, FrSd Str, SResp-1.5f Whip, HgL-1f+, Fd ins-1f | |||||
| 7 | Missing Agent | 16 | -22 | 2 | S | P. D. Evans | 3 | 1stCols, BAwk-1 P-2 Dv, TTR Erl, SAdf+2f Dv, NoResp Str, Fd ins-1.5f | ||||
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18mm of rain previous Tues-Thurs and 1mm on Sat. Another 1mm on night before race and rain forecast during the day & predicted a further 6-7mm on the day. Going Stick figure is Sat 8:00am reading (check update). Going changed to GS before racing and Going Stick to 6.0 by 9:00 on morning of the race. Stiff SSW wind as the 3/4 Tailwind from the right in the straight and a slight Tailwind in the Chute (more a Crosswind from the Right). John Spearing came into race 2 wins from 2 runs with seller debuts, both by early runners in April. Gannon rides his Black Eider rather than either of the David Evans' family owned rabbits. Missing Agent appears real first string of Evans pair wearing the first colours and with jockey Beggy on. Although jockey Thomas did ride STYD on Debut. Looking at other Evans runners on Card most ridden by Beggy and none by Gannon and Thomas appears to not have another ride. [STYD was fractious behind the stalls and unseated the jockey so perhaps Thomas riding here as a 'tricky' one he has some experience of?] Severn Bore penalised 5lbs so should not beat Suivez L'Argent on Redcar form. But that race showed SB notably bigger than the small SL and a question over how much SL got behind due to being green and how much to be small and underpowered. SL able to close up late on as leading three folded back. Will she stay on here or find the softer going too much and would SB improve to STO (how ready are Turner FTOs this year?) and see the race out better? Will the softer going make leading throughout harder and how will the tailwind help the prominent runners? Either way, not a simple case of lengths & pounds and see how that turns out. Trainer DJSF Davis had ok record with 2yos 2003-6 but just 1 win, in 2009, from 23 individual runners 2007-11 since. Placed debuts very rare. Silicon Valley a full brother to a very poor runner who made his debut in the equivalent race in 2011 for Stan Moore. Relay quickly dropped to a seller and presume the Hannon's know she is below OR68 even at best and do not want to spend time sorting out whatever is wrong beneath her ears given the size of string they have. She has the size to compete ok in this sort of field but will she put a vaguely competent race together or look unwilling to go foward to order again? Usable pace with SB & SL close together at halfway with Relay 1.5L back in ok S&P 3rd but already being driven along in her typical rather-not-be-involved manner. STYD just behind her going ok. BE at 3L and niggled along. SV on outside at halfway at 4L and starting to roll around. MA at 6-7L and driven along and struggling to go pace and second string on betting despite the first colours. Worth noting how the field split into Groups in the straight with Relay staying Far Side and on the rail well before 1F out. SB Centre to Far Side alone then rolled over to Far Rail late on when clear. SL came to stands' side along with STYD & BE and this strip is normally considered the better going on former ground. Other pair adrift to various degrees and mid-track. The way SB & SL ran the 5f at RDCR & here an interesting example of how conditions and how close you run to the pace can affect things. SL at 6L off the lead at halfway at RDCR and able to trundle into the faders late on who had gone to hard for their fitness (two of whom have won sellers since now). Run SL up with the pace on softer going and she doesn't finish the race off. The 'See-Saw' balance between your cruising speed (& comfort zone at a pace) and running a race out fully, and efficiently, being demonstrated. Some horses have exquisitely balanced See-Saws where the margin of error is almost nothing. Run them in 4-6th at halfway at 3-4L off an average pace and they will make 1-3 places to the finish looking promising. Ok, you might think, run them 2nd-4th at halfway and closer to the pace and if they can make places again they might well win. Except that they now fold before the finish and lose 2-5 places and do worse than they would from further back. Fiddle with it how you like there may be no place to balance the See-Saw so they can win. Bill Turner interviewed post race by a gushing Nick Luck and two entirely different outlooks on life collide. Dr Pangloss meets Albert Steptoe. Seems SB has come on much more than the runner-up at RDCR enthuses Lord Luck. Don't know about that miserables Turner back, the ground helped him here as he has a knee action and it was firm enough for him at RDCR (despite all that watering and the slow times?). Do you think he can win above seller level soon asks and undeterred Luck who knows about lots of winnable races by poor horses that nobody else can see. No, I think he is just a plater says Turner who really likes winning sellers and claimers, at heart. He then seems quite morose when he says SB cannot run in another seller (having won two) so will have to try a claimer or something else anyway. Turner then says something helpful in that if SB is up to winning outside seller & claimer level then he has a number of good juveniles this year (presumably because he has a number that can beat SB). He couched that in the terms of 'if this was a good seller' then I have a number of good 2yos still to come out. Turner then noted that SB had been getting colty so if he retained him at the auction (he did) then SB would be gelded and given a break. Luck interviewed Joe Tuite before the race and asked him if he thought SL would come on for the run. Tuite spent 8 years with Channon so has been involved with hundreds of 2yos and debuts. Tuite said that he thought most 2yos 'came on' STO for debuts because the FTO run was the 'biggest day' of the horse's life and impossible to replicate at home. He thought that SL would definitely improve from debut. Pressed by Luck for whether he had a 2yo he was looking forward to running he said that he had a Piccolo Filly (poss ex Rosein) and an Elnadim colt and thought both were 'smart' (whatever that means in number terms). D. Davis interviewed before the race and Luck asked whether SV had shown him some 'pace' given she was starting at 5f. Davis sidestepped this and said she had shown she was 'early' but thought she would perhaps be better at 7f in six weeks. She was a home-bred so he was trying to get a win anyhow. Asked the same question about a horse he was looking forward to running as Tuite was and said he hadn't found one yet. |