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Nottingham 2:10, 5.1f Novice (4) |
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| Horse | SP | [EST] | Run | Wnr | Trainer | Dw | Hf | Run Notes | ||||
| 1 | Dreamy Ciara | 2 | 49 | 3 | a | P. D. Evans | 4 | Drift 7/4, BOk RL PNgl, Ld Erl Ngl, 1.5Clr+0.5f HdR, CmfLd, Eff ins-2f Po, SHgL-1f+, Chalgd-1f Rsp, Po, Whp-0.5f, poLt | ||||
| 2 | Black Monk | 0.73 | 49 | 1 | M | R. Hannon | 2 | BOk, 2nd+0.5f -1.5L Sttld, Ngl+2f Resp, SPrg Hf, Eff-2f STTR HgL, Po-1f+, Chal-1f, Po & Duel, po ins-0.5f, FdLt | ||||
| 3 | Yes Two | 9 | 43 | 1 | M | B. R Millman | 3 | Supp 14/1, BOk, H-1 Erl X to RL, -2L+1f, HgL+1.5f, SLGrnd+2f Ngl TTR, -5L Hf, Rsp-2f, Po, SHgL-1f+, Po ins-1f, po-0.5f | ||||
| 4 | Frosted Off | 16 | 15 | 1 | J. L. Spearing | 1 | B-1 Wdst P-4 Ngl, Dv Erl TTR, Adf+1f HgL, -12L Hf, Sresp-2f+ Cent, po, HnH-1f, SEased Lt | |||||
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Dry period and GFF going until periods of rain over the previous 6 days. Going reading from 07:30 on day of race. Stalls Stands' Side and using the 'Inside Course' for the meeting. This is the old NH course which was not used at all in 2011. Probably because no softer going in 2011 and outer course never got chewed up. Since this is an 8 race card as the first meeting of the season the ground staff presumably do not want their main track chewed up on soft and ruined for the rest of the year. Medium Westerly breeze = Half Headwind from the right with some shelter for first half of race behind bank and trees. Sunshine in prelims and horses without rugs in the Pre-Parade. But, cloud came over and horses cantered down in a medium Hailstorm which was in the process of turning into cold rain during the race. Lovely. Pre-Race Questions Doc. 4 Pictures of the field going down to the start together in the hail :- Down 1, Down 2, Down 3, Down 4 3 Pictures of them in the race :- Race 1, Race 2, Race 3 Rod Millman 'Stable Tour' quote on Yes Two on his website before the season started = "He’s a leggy individual that is only going to improve with time as he strengthens up but is showing plenty of speed in his work and had a trouble-free winter. He’s currently our earliest two-year-old and he is in the next couple of weeks and he could be anything." Small field but an interesting group and very informative in Paddock Review and to compare to the questions posed pre-race. The three newcomer males came walked across to the pre-parade early together so could be assessed together and well before Dreamy Ciara (the filly who might have got them thinking about other things). The key question is how well has Black Monk developed from a yearling and how fit is he? He's smaller than Yes Two and a similar type in shape to Frosted Off although with a bit more substance. Developed ok without looking anything special. And, he isn't that fit and on that view he may well struggle to see out the 5F on GS and how big and fit Dreamy Ciara is should make the choice between them. Looking at BM there is a nagging feeling you have seen him before. The Hannon team buy similar physical types with yearlings and put them through the same training. Unsurprisingly, you start to see a set of 'Types' if you look at a lot of them. Then it comes to you why BM looks familiar. This is a Bunce type who made an early debut for Hannon in 2010. Try looking at this - Picture - of Bunce on his debut to compare to BM. Bunce was a bit fitter perhaps and maybe a little lengthier. He didn't win over 5f but was an OR80s type and did better over further. Could BM be the same? Bunce ran a solid debut in a stiff pace race and managed to make some ground on the Evans trained filly that set that pace before fading in the last half furlong because of lacking some fitness. On that model he is going to struggle if this race's Evans, race fit, filly is as good a type, or better, than Scarlet Rocks (Picture) from the 2010 race. Which proved an excellent model for how the race went. With BM able to keep tabs on the Evans' filly, make 1-2L on her from halfway to the 1F out mark and engage her but then fade in the last half furlong. Jockey Dobbs apparently dropped his whip but that made no difference to the result since BM did not see out the 5.1F anyway. So, OR80s and need to be zippier than Bunce to win STO over 5f and probably continue to develop over further? When Dreamy Ciara turned up later you knew BM had a tough job. Taller than BM and vied with Yes Two as the tallest. Somewhat narrow bodied but better than expected and perhaps putting some weight on and improving. Solidly fit as you would expect and a more mature and organised mental type than Scarlet Rocks was (SR tore off in the lead in 2010 while DC settled in the lead here so was able to respond when challenged). DC definitely OR70s and see whether she is developing NTO. Her WTON win probably under-rated so bear that in mind for the 2nd in that race. Evans has not shown a good FTO winner yet and DC the best of what we have seen and nothing much else listed on his website. Has he got anything else usable to show us? Yes Two a pleasant surprise and taller than BM, ok build, carries himself well. Not just the zippy, compact 5f racer his pedigree might suggest but bigger and more scope than that. He is notably fitter than BM and if this were 10 years ago you would expect him to be competing to win and seeing him at 12/1 in the Market just silly. But, his trainer does not get strong debuts anymore so if you look closely at YT what is going to stop him competing to win. The answer would be how green, immature and mentally clueless he looked. The fitness and the physical tools were present. Again, the race seemed to back this up. Comfortably tracking DC & BM after a solid start out of the first 1F. But then he starts hanging before halfway and looking clueless and losing ground. More than 5L back of DC after halfway as she started to up the pace a bit. But, responding well in the last 2F despite still rolling around a bit and running alone away from the rail. Only beaten 3L at the line and still going forward and passed the leading pair not that far after the line. So, a good physical type, making ground after halfway despite the immaturity and a strong finish. Runs for a trainer whose horses now peak STO. Not a horse to oppose lightly on his next run and worth following. Frosted Off an early starter for his trainer who presumably bred him and passed him on. By a better sire than the trainer would normally use. Ought to be an ok physical type. Which he was in review. A similar shape and set-up to Black Monk but a little less of most things. Not quite as big, a bit less power behind, less fit as well. Both FOff and BM are laid back in attitude but while this is typical for a Hannon horse they also usually know what is coming in a race. FOff looks young mentally and walks around showing he clearly has no idea what is coming. Again, this shows in the race. Slow break, doesn't know what to do in the pick-up phase and soon gets adrift. Then starts hanging to centre track. Showed enough in a small rally in the last 2F and also only beaten as far at the finish as he was behind at halfway despite some easing late on. Has enough about about him physically to think that OR70 is possible. Trainer used to do 3TO peaks and you could imagine this one needing another run where he finishes 3rd-5th range depending on the race quality before being competitive to win. Conditions - £7,000 guaranteed For 2yo which are E.B.F. eligible Weights colts and geldings 9st, fillies 8st 9lb Penalties for each Class 5 or 6 race won 2lb for each Class 3 or 4 race won 5lb (penalties cumulative and maximum penalty 10lb) (wins in selling races shall not count towards penalties) Entries 13 pay £ 35 Penalty value 1st £4,528.30 2nd £1,347.50 3rd £673.40 4th £336.70 |
