 |
|
||||||||||||
Wolverhampton 6:45, 5.1f Maiden (Fillies') (5) |
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
| Horse | SP | [EST] | Run | Wnr | Trainer | Dw | Hf | Run Notes | ||||
| 1 | Coconut Kisses | 4 | 42 | 2 | W. G. M. Turner | 3 | Drift 7/2, Jk Fallon, B1 1Clr Immed, XF Erl Cmf, SFre to Bnd & Hld, 1.5Clr Hf, CmfLd, Eff to Str, 2Clr-1f, po, Trier | |||||
| 2 | Back In The Frame | 4 | 37 | 1 | T. G. Dascombe | 4 | BOk, H-2 Erl, XM+0.5f JkQt, LsGrnd to Bnd, Dv+2f, -7L Hf, 6th to Str Dv, Resp-1.5f RL, po, 3rd ins-1f, po to Ln | |||||
| 3 | Lexi The Princess | 3.33 | 30 | 1 | C | K. A. Ryan | 2 | Supp 9/2, B-2 Inx P-3 JkQt, Dv+0.5f Inx, HdUp to Bnd Kkbck?, -9L Hf, Rsp-2f, 7th to Str SwcCnt, po-1.5f, 6th-1f, po | ||||
| 4 | Windsor Rose | 22 | 30 | 2 | S | W. M. Brisbourne | 5 | BOk, Ngl+0.5f Bnd 1Wd, NglOv & Bnd SInx, Eff to Str, po Cent, Fd-0.5f | ||||
| 5 | Until It Sleeps | 33 | 27 | 1 | A. J. McCabe | 1 | BOk RL P-1 Ngl, Rsp Erl, 2R+0.5f RL, SFre to Bnd SUnbal Ngl Rsp, Eff to Str Rsp, po in 2nd, Stall ins-1f, Fd ins-0.5f | |||||
| 6 | Stripped Bear | 2 | 12 | 2 | N | T. G. Dascombe | 6 | TrblLdg Bucking & Gone Ins, UnsttlStalls, BPAwk-2 Dv, TTR Erl, Prg to Bnd Dv 2WdOv, Dv to Str SHgR, HgL-1f+, Fd ins-1f | ||||
| 7 | Sixties Queen | 14 | 5 | 1 | A. Bailey | 8 | BOk Wd, H-1 Erl, Drop-in+0.5f 2Wd, SCarrRH to Bnd & 3WdOv, -3L Hf, ModResp-2f, HdR to Str, HgL-1f+ & Fd | |||||
| 8 | Symphony Of Light | 50 | -45 | 1 | D. Burchell | 7 | B-3 Wd Inx P-3, Dv Erl LsGrnd, Adf to Bnd Dv, -15L Hf, NoResp, NIR | |||||
|
|
Stiff NNW wind. Half Tailwind from the right in the back straight and helpful for first half of the bend, opposite set up for the last 2f. Similar conditions to the Fillies' Auction race here 10 days ago won by Dreamy Ciara. Wind from a similar direction but less strong here. DCiara carried 10lbs less than Coconut Kisses in this race. Both races run in very similar times (CK 0.05s faster) but those times very slow overall and only one slower in 2010-11 than either of the 2012 times to date. DC ran wider in the straight with CK able to run the rail throughout here in a race that fell apart to some extent and proved less competitive than it might have seemed. Windsor Rose has run in both races and more competent here but still a little green. Beaten by close to 4L here carrying 126lbs having been 8.5L behind DCiara carrying carrying 118lbs and 2lbs more than that winner. So, if you assumed the going and the tmes are the same in both races she has run 4.5L & 8lbs better which you could call 8L. She lost 3-4L with a slow start and other lack of response FTO and faded more and a little earlier in the race. Add in the lighter Headwind in the home straight here and perhaps 2-3L of natural underlying improvement. Ballpark. Two 5.1f races for 3yos produced times which match together reasonably with following race a maiden won by an OR62 rated male on his 13th start in 62.37s carrying 122lbs. Last race of the meeting (2.5hrs later) won by an OR57 rated gelding with 125lbs in 62.4s. Halfway positions to final placings show a mix of Run Styles together at the finish with the placed horses 7L & 9L back of the lead into the bend out of the back straight. The pace did not look that strong and the front-runner won by 1L+ as well. So a key question to consider is how much of the ground made by BITF & LTP was their efforts and how much was the leaders folding back? UIS & WR faded notably which enabled the closing pair to get to them but the leader did not appear to fade and perhaps just a late stall. But that means BITF made around 5L on CK in the second half of the race running the rail route and LTP a similar wmount slingshotting wider to centre track off the bend. CK another Bill Turner prominent runner and fader on debut to come back STO and put a full race together and win. Turner has produced profits supporting his STOs in Mar-May and over 5f in both the last two season and has reasonable chances of doing that again this year. His STO record in 2012 to date is 3 wins and a 2nd from 4 tries with the 2nd a slow starting runner who ran into one of the best 2yos to run so far. A thorough trier and aided by a very competent race and a live rail. Looked lighter build than pair in S&P positions (UIS & WR) and a somewhat weak neck. But moves well and makes the best of herself. Presume low OR60s type and lacking scope of a Dreamy Ciara & OR50s longer term BITF the most expensive in the field and owned by Dascombe's landlord in Michael Owen. Perhaps making her debut at a time when the trainer will mix in a few of his best early type. Ridden by Kingscote which might have suggested she was the first string. But, jockey Craine rode SBear 5 days ago so perhaps just riding her again because he knew her and perhaps because the stable want to give him the odd winner for his work there. BITF at a longer price than SB in the Market and a neat type but not grown much from 1yo. Given a non-involving ride by Kingscote which is unusual for him because he ranks very highly amongst jockeys for getting newcomers out of the stalls well and into prominent positions. Instead he held this one up after an ok break next to the rail as if he was inteding to ride a Second Sting in an educational debut. This proved a poor move in more than one way because the filly took being held back as a cue to slow down even more. Which meant she was dropping adrift form the leading 5 to the bend and suddenly Kingscote in looking really active. She made a real effort in the straight along the Live rail to make ground on the second rank before they were fading and to chase the leader. Beaten 1.5L at the line and you wonder what would have happened if Kingscote had ridden BITF in his normal manner rather than as a Second String to a filly in SB who had already boilled over before the start. Not one of the stable better ones on this but ough to be OR70+ and better than the winner in the medium to longer term. LTP another 2yo for trainer Ryan from important owner Koukash (100+ horse in training at start 2012) after a break in 2011. Ryan trained the dam's previous 2yo who won FTO over 5f on May 6th in 2011 but by a zipper sire. Ryan had an unusually good FTO Strike Rate in 2011 but usually with better types and only one in April. The FTO win by his second runner of the year earlier in the week perhaps misleading since she got from a very green 6th to lead late in a race that set up for her. LTP was 7th through halfway here to add to 8th & 6th of Ryan's first two runners and an indicator of how the ordinary ones are not primed FTO and can get behind. LTP lost 5L from the stalls with the jockey quiet in letting it happen. A bit more activity in the last 2F and tried to close up a bit towards the bend to the straight and then see what the filly could do in the straight. She ran widest in centre track and it took her until the line to just get by the fading WR and still nearly 4L back from the winner. Just an ok offort and not showing anything different. Looked more the typical 'Peak STO' early Ryan runner. Worth noting the 2011 record with debuts for owner Koukash, with ALL 2yos debuts, in relation to the SPs. LP was supported from 9/2 to 10/3 here but was any of that from the connections or people getting 'hopeful' because Ryan had a FTO winner in the week? Koukash had 21 juvenile debuts in 2011 which produce 4 x FTO wins and three places. Sort the debuts by ascending SP and you could believe that Koukash does affect the Market to some extent. Three of the debut wins are among the 5 shortest SPs between 15/8 & 5/2. There seems to be a break around 7/1 and anything at level or shorter is more likely to win or place. 10/1 plus contains most of the duff debuts. However, as ever, there is a reminder that people judging horse make mistakes because the other debut winner was at 20/1 (Bryan Smart trained in a season where his horses seemed to have a problem and performed variably). But, that means that the 10/3 her for LTP doesn't match with jockey Fortune's activity in early race (where is/was Makin?) WRose the first debut runner of the season for Brisbourne last time which means she has a 90% chance of winning something at 2yo. Trainer tends to bring them along slowly and 3TO peaks used to be recognisable. This effort an improvement on FTO in nous and showed more pace. But still fading although showing more bulk than the winner so can still improve. WR developing fine to be the lower level winner 3-4TO with some development potential. Trainer McCabe typically runs a few in April and unless he has anything unusually good and early lurking (like Fratellino) they will be a mix of duff ones and usuable OR50-60s types trying to get an early win in a weak race. The better 2yos start in batches later. UIS the first foal of a poor mare that owner Wentorth (important to McCabe, Caspar Netscher, etc) had with John Wainwright. Not a strong profile but a good debut in the context of being the usable earyl type for the stable. At least as big as WRose and a bit more natural pace. Ran green and too free at time and an early fade. But a solid effort as a low level debut for the trainer. Probably drop to a Northern Auction race next and should go ok. Stripped Bear a good debut and the stable first string on betting. But, running only 5 days after a tough, duelling, race at Southwell. Trainer has a good record off short breaks to STO but the behaviour of SB here suggested it had got to her in some way. When they tried to load her into the stalls she was pulling away and bucking. Then started circling and lacking any focus as if she had 'Gone Inside' which is usually terminal for a horse's chances. She had to be hooded to calm down enough to be heaved in by 4 handlers. But, she then started panicking in the stalls and a slow break was assured. This all happened too late to affect the Market. A very awkward break and jockey Craine immediately active unlike Kingscote on BITF. But, she then ran too freely, hung right into the bend as the jockey tried to hold her up and ran wide on the bend and never settled. Faded early in the straight as would be expected. Now she has an attitude, ot stalls aversion, issue to fix before you could see her fulfilling the debut promise. [Worth noting the ATR coverage came back from the US racing and an advert break to acknowledge this race's existence as the horse's were already loading.] Trainer Alan Bailey does front-load his usable fillies to some extent and they can win and place FTO. SQ another by Sixties Icon and showed minor ability before an early fade but without looking a better early debut for the trainer. Perhaps Seraphima who he has entered at NMKT next week is that one. SQ got away ok from a wide draw here and 2 wide into the bend but then carried even wider by SBear butting into things due to Craine's urgings. Which mean SQ always running 3 wide on the bend and not comfortably. Worth checking her again STO. SOLight a lost debut for a trainer who has not had a 2yo winner for ages and has run a number of duff ones for the same owner in those empty years. |