British 2yo Racing - 2012 Race Result :- 209 : Sat, June 23rd

BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2012 Season Race Result

Race 209 : Sat, June 23rd
Redcar 2:15, 7f Maiden (5)

2012 Season Home
2012 Results

[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.

GOING	TIME	RcPc	Video	VP
S	89.09 [Compare]	0	Link	None

	Horse	SP	[EST]	Run	Wnr	Trainer	Dw	Hf	Run Notes
1	Shrewd	1.88	50	2	D	M. L. W. Bell	7	4	BkWL Hld Immed, H-2 +0.5f, Drop-n+1f, -2L Hf, Ngl-3f TTR, Po-2.5f, PO-1.5f+, Ld ins-1f, Po, poLt
2	Royal Skies	4.5	47	1	M	M. Johnston	2	2	BkWL, LdgLn Erl, Fre+0.5f Hld, SFFH for 1f, Ld-3f IncrPc, Eff-2.5f, Po, Chalgd-1f+ Resp, Hdd ins-1f Po, po-0.5f, FdLt
3	Beat The Tide	16	37	1	A	M Dods	6	5	BOk, Ngl Erl TTR, Resp+0.5f, -3L Hf Ngl Resp, Eff-2.5f SOutpcd, po SInx, Resp to Ln, Slow Galloping Stayer?
4	Miss Perfect	16	32	1		J. J. Quinn	4	10	B-1, H-3 Erl, TvOk Hf, TTR-3f, po-2.5f, 3rd-1f+, po, Fd ins-0.5f
5	Dark Ocean	50	33	1		J. O'Keeffe	1	9	BOk P-2, H-2 Erl, SFre+1f Hld & Drop-in, SFFH for 1.5f, Inx Hf Unbal, po-2.5f, Resp to Ln Slowly
6	Finaz	3	26	4		P. T. Midgley	9	1	Supp 5/1, B1, Ld Erl, Jnd+1f, Hdd-3f, Eff-2.5f, Po, po-1.5f+, Fd-1f
7	Shillito	16	20	1		A. C. Coyle	11	7	BOk, H-2 Erl, 2R+1f Sttld, TvOk-3f, Eff-2.5f, po, Fd ins-1f
8	Surround Sound	40	14	1		T. D. Easterby	8	8	2ndCols, B-2, Resp Erl, SFre+1.5f Hld, Outpcd-2.5f, po, Fd-1f HgL
9	Navajo Nights	10	-7	1		B. Smart	10	3	BOk Hld Immed, QFFH for 3f, LsGrnd-3f, po-2.5f, Whip-2f, Fd-1.5f, OkSz & Type
10	Lady Niramax	40	-16	1		D. Nicholls	12	12	BRh-2 P-1, Ngl Erl TTR, Last+0.5f, Bmp+2f, DvOv, Outpcd-2.5f, po, Fd-1.5f
11	Heliconia	14	-20	1		M. Prescott	3	11	Drift 11/1, B-1 Dv PBmp-2, Dv Erl TTR Inx, DvOv, Outpcd-3f, Fd-1.5f+
12	Bollin Billy	50	-27	3		T. D. Easterby	5	6	1stCols, BOk, H-2 Erl, Ngl Hf SUnbal, LsGrnd-3f+, Adf ins-3f, NoResp
NR	Tiger Prince					A. Duffield	13		NR = Going.

SUMMARY

S from GF two days prior. 22mm of rain Thu-Fri & 7mm overnight. Mainly dry day forecast. Going Stick = 09:15am. Strong SW Wind = Half Tailwind from the Left.

Odd mixed pace because of the Johnston runner Royal Skies and you would presume he and his jockey change the normal Jog-to-2f-out-then-kick Template because they presume they have strong stayers. Slow pace for first half of race with some FFH behind. The RSkies took the lead at 3F out and increased the pace and the final efforts were on by 2.5F out. First two pulled clear together with RS a medium slightly lightly built stayer and perhaps OR70s unless improves for 8f. Shrewd a shorter but chunkier model and took time to get going but staying on stronger at the finish.

Gap behind them probably has the Changeover Point in and a question over what quality the 3rd-5th home group are. All three plugged on at their pace and only Miss Perfect actually faded before the line. Some 'promise' in being able to plug on but doing it rather slowly and left behind by Open Maiden types for pace here. Beat The Tide seems to fit his pedigree in being a rangy stayer on shape and movement but lacking pace. A bit green here but hard to see him having the pace for an Open Maiden win and might well try 9f+ by season end. Perhaps see how he develops for a Nursery slog. Dark Ocean another slow pedigree and another to never fade but plugging on at 'his pace' at the finish. Probably an above average debut by trainer standards and ran a bit free early and still seeing the race out despite a bit green. Track STO for improvement and appeals as type to win something.

Navajo Nights most interesting of those in the ruck as a good size and ok type. Put up one of the most extended bouts of FFH in the first half of the race and nothing left for laer race. Trainer Smart gets a lot of this over-enthusiastic type and mixed record with fixing it.

Looking at Mark Prescott's FRAGs by SP for 2010-11 you wouldn't be expecting Heliconia to improve to be a winner on starting at 14/1 FTO in a RDCR maiden. On the flip side the trainer Front-loads competitive 2yos and she is only his 6th debut of the year. Getting a duff one going for three runs who will start as a 3yo in a 12f handicap off OR54? Or was she 14/1 because they knew she would be clueless. See how informative the Market is on the next three runs.

Pointless Pundit Nevison sat in the studio doing his 'Act' for this race and easy to boil his Approach down to 'Lite' (superficial and non-researched) use of three standard approaches which are so entrenched in Racing they are never questioned. 'Pedigree Lite' with no understanding of genetics, heritability, etc. 'Market Indicator' Lite - his favourite and you can hear him trying to 'mould' every race to fit the Market. One of the downsides to that being that he can never have his 'own view' and make it very difficult to come up with value suggestions or thoughts. 'Race Standardisation Lite' - Shrewd ran in a GDWD maiden and is trained in Newmarket therefore he is better class than a RDCR maiden so will win. Which he did here but that line of thinking always finds the same horse(s) whether value or not, winning or not. The statement about GDWD versus RDCR maidens is a classic example of where a bit of research would make the Pundit worthwhile. Go away and find out what it takes in Class terms to win RDCR & GDWD maidens. Dig out the ROI in supporting GDWD maiden trekkers in Northern maidens STO, 3TO etc. Question whether the Race Standardisation used in most Ratings makes that a pointless exercise in self-fulfilment. And so on. Instead of sitting there year after year going through the same LITEweight tosh and pocketing the cheque. Anyone who has watched a few 'performances' should be able to match it. We could teach a Dog to do a lot of it.