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Newbury 2:10, 5.1f Maiden (4) |
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| Horse | SP | [EST] | Run | Wnr | Trainer | Dw | Hf | Run Notes | ||||
| 1 | Englishman | 4.5 | 59 | 1 | C. B. Hills | 4 | SFre Erl Hld for+0.5f, H-2 +1f D-in 3R, TvCmf-2f, LsGrnd-1.5f+ SwcR, 8th-1f -4.5L, ko-0.5f+, LdLt, Cmf | |||||
| 2 | Smoothtalkinrascal | 8 | 56 | 1 | M | B. J. Meehan | 6 | Drift 6/1, BOk, LdgLn Erl Sttld, TvCmf-2f, Ld-1.5f+, Eff-1.5f SHgL, ko, 2Clr-1f HgL, PO, po-0.5f, FdLt on FrRL | ||||
| 3 | Dust Whirl | 8.5 | 54 | 1 | R. Hannon | 8 | Drift 7/1, BOk, LdgLn Erl Sttld, Ld+0.5f, TvCmf-2f, Hdd-1.5f+ & Eff, PO SInx HnH in Clear 2nd, Fd ins-0.5f | |||||
| 4 | Sign Of The Zodiac | 5 | 52 | 1 | M | R. Hannon | 11 | Drift 7/2, BRh-1 P-1 ins, Resp Erl, SPrg+1f & 2R, SInx & SHdROv, Eff-2f STTR, Po HnH, Resp-0.5f Whip, poLt | ||||
| 5 | Cay Verde | 28 | 51 | 1 | M | M. R. Channon | 10 | BSRear-1, Resp Erl, H-2 +1f, SwcR+2f, Dv-2f+ TTR, po, Resp to Ln for FullRd | ||||
| 6 | Edged Out | 50 | 45 | 1 | B. Palling | 7 | B-2 PSqz-1, -3L Erl, Dv+1f TTR SLsGrnd, SAdf+2f Dv, -8L Hf, Whip ins-2f TR, 10th-1f, po HnH to Fdrs? | |||||
| 7 | Premier Steps | 16 | 44 | 1 | M | T. G. Dascombe | 9 | BOk, H-2 Erl, SFre+0.5f Sttld, D-in+1f 2R, TvOk Hf, Eff-2f STTR HgL, Po-1.5f 3rd, HgL-1f+, 4th-0.5f+, Fd | ||||
| 8 | Inka Surprise | 4 | 47 | 1 | M | R. M. Beckett | 5 | BSAwk P-1, SInx+0.5f & H-1, SFre+1f & Hld, TvOk-2f, SPrg-1.5f+, Eff ins-1.5f TTR SInx, Po HnH, 3rd-0.5f+, Fd-0.5f | ||||
| 9 | Carlton Blue | 8.5 | 41 | 1 | N | P. F. I. Cole | 2 | FrSd, BOk Wd, H-1 +0.5f & 2R Sttld, Eff-2f SLsGrnd, po, Fd-1f, Eased ins-0.5f | ||||
| 10 | Bungle Inthejungle | 16 | 38 | 1 | M | M. R. Channon | 3 | Drift 10/1, FrSd, B-2 PNgl, Resp Erl & Prg, Fre+1.5f Hld, TvOk-2f, Dv-2f QHgL, po, Fd-0.5f+ | ||||
| 11 | Fils Anges | 7 | 13 | 1 | M | M. L. W. Bell | 1 | Supp 9/1, FrSd, BOk, SFre+0.5f & Hld Wd Alone, SInx+2f Drop Grp, Eff-2f Inx HgL, LsGrnd ins-1.5f, Adf-1f, Eased | ||||
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£10k Bonus Race. Rain spread through previous week and 4mm in previous 24 hours. Going Stick from noon on the day. Medium Westerly wind which is a Direct Headwind. Notably slow time. Previous race won in 65.59s by an OR91 rated 4yo carrying 8-7lbs. Hannon on his website the day before = "We got off to a flyer last year when Magic City won the two-year-old race by six lengths for David Barker, and Dust Whirl carries the same colours this year, so maybe we will get a similar result. Dust Whirl is a mature colt who is based up at Everleigh, but, while he goes well, so does Sign of the Zodiac, who is owned by Julie Wood. He has been doing everything right, but there are several other well-bred horses in the race, and, like all of mine, our two will improve for the experience." Charlie Hills on the 16th on his website = "On Friday Englishman is likely to run in the two year old race. He is owned by former trainer Peter Winkworth so we're under pressure!! He doesn't look like a typical Royal Applause but goes nicely and we're hopeful of a good show. Again he might not be as wound up as some of the other runners in the field. He is pictured below on the near side with the white face." Meehan on his website = "This likeable colt has proved very sharp in early work. Some other major stables who are traditionally competitive in early-season juvenile contests are represented, but Smoothtalkinrascal, who is well positioned in the centre of the field, carries plenty of stable confidence." Michael Bell on his 18th Apr blog = "On Friday we have declared our first two-year-old runner of the season when FILS ANGES takes his chance at Newbury. He is a nice horse who has shown encouraging signs at home and hopefully he will give a good account of himself here.", blah, blah blah. Field raced Centre Track. Average pace at most with first 10 through halfway within 4L of lead in tight formation and only EOut off the back. Looking at the draws compared to finishing positions you would wonder about whether running on the far side of Centre line a Negative? The three that finished 9th-11th lost a lot of ground in the last 2F in an untypical manner without some outside influence. Englishman next furthest over and SmoothTR then just beyond centre line in a stack and others Centre to stands' side including the filly Edged Out who plugged on into the group on the Stands' Side of pack from being well back. Why have solid profile types like Fils Anges, BITJ & CBlue faded quite so completely? Look at the run of Englishman and it could be more evidence for a negative bias. He is travelling well behind the leaders then fails to pick up into the last 2F and loses ground and ends up dropping back with Premier Steps hanging across him. That means hapless jock M Hills has to switch right off the far side and the horse then picks up notably to make his forward move and pick up the STR comfortably late on as that one fades and hangs. Note that STR hangs left to the far rail in the last 1F and attracts some of the field across to him which means the late race 'highlights' hide the subtlety of what strip the horses had run on. Note the last 1F is uphill to some extent and draining differently to the low lying straight so might not respect the earlier bias. Usually a strong maiden and in the last 3 runnings more than half the field have proved to be winners during the season and the majority at Open Maiden level as a minimum. The last two runnings have produced one season Group winner (Won this maiden) and two Listed winners (2nd & M Hills style 4th). The 2011 was particularly consistent with a big field and a lot of the 'right' trainers and even the lesser yards represented mostly had maiden winner quality as the support. 2009 had a similar large field but a bit less quality all round and the lesser yards had some duff ones. Look at this 2012 Edition and the overall assessment is a very positive one. 10 of the 11 are from the 'Right' yards to bring Open Maiden winner class, at least, to the race. The one exception is Bryn Palling but he has a good record with fillies from this 'Family'. The dam won a maiden FTO at Salisbury in the same season another relation was 2nd FTO in a maiden here. So a smaller yard probably bringing the best they have and that has proved competitive in the past. Which means the overall summary would be that it would be no surprise to see 8-9 of these as winners at Open Maiden level by season end and the First 3 home have strong credentials to compete well somewhere in the better Conditions to Group level range. The way the race played out with a possible draw bias, an average pace, a lot of hanging when put under pressure, and so on probably means placing a Changeover Point is difficult. The pair that are most suspect at Open Maiden level are Cay Verde & Edged Out and they probably plugged on past a set of better horses and their midfield 5-6th perhaps misleading. Those behind make a strong case to be open maiden winners with the possible exception of Carlton Blue. Englishman eventually put up a very taking performance and won comfortably. He presumably is not a real 5f horse and running here because he is so mature and a composed racehorse (as his work picture shows). Took time to get going but this looked a mix of the strip he was on and a bit of M. Hills flappery. Once switched onto better ground the horse got going strongly and got his jockey out of the hole. Has the size and range to go onto to compete well at higher level and definite OR90+. Interesting to note he is owned by Peter Winkworth who retired from training in 2011. Winkworth was very good at getting FTO wins so would have approved of this. Also interesting to look at Charlie Hills' quote where he says that Englishman doesn't look like a typical 'Royal Applause'. This is nonsense but a good example of how cliche and personal anecdotes often pass for 'knowledge' in racing. The sire gets a range of physical specimens and you could identify at least two which are totally different. On one end he gets smaller, bulky, fat bloke, precocious sprinters. If you have trained that type then you would come up with the Hills' quote. If you had trained the taller, slightly narrow but rangy type - think 'Third Set' - you would look at Englishman and think "aah, a typical Royal Applause.." [UPDATE] = Charlie hills on his w/c 23rd News = "Englishman has gone nicely from day one at home, although on looks you wouldn't necessarily put him down as an early sort because he's quite a leggy individual. However he showed on the track what he's been showing at home, and did it well considering the ground conditions which wouldn't have suited him. It was great to win with him for former trainer Peter Winkworth who has sent us two horses. He has come out of the race well and we'll begin to think about where we go next, however there'll be no rush." Dust Whirl representing the same connections to won the race in 2011 with, the baffling, Magic City. Who looked terrific in that debut win then never as good again and running in 8f nurseries off late OR80s by season close. You can trues Hannon to bring OR80+ as his competitive ones to this race and DW looks better than that. Bigger type and bulky. Cruised along in the lead past 2F out with only STRascal able to match him for that cruising level and the other 9 already working to various levels. A solid forward effort before getting tired late on. A good debut and perhaps he will develop more than Magic City from this. Likeable type and one to follow. SmoothtalkinRascal just a medium size and a cheaper buy for the Sangster family (who own Manton as Meehan's landlords). His pedigree says natural, precocious 2yo is he is any good. Meehan tends to run a few naturals early and debuts at 5f are rare these days. The ones he has started at 5f in 2010-11 have proved limited but before that you go back to a range of better types including Radiohead & Lady Of The Desert in 2009. Debuts for the Sangster family produce his strongest debuts and best returns as a group. In 2011 Meehan was pretty good a identifying his better debuts in his news page summaries. The quote above using a phrase like 'confidence' in unusual. So, a lot of circumstantials before the race to say STR was a natural early sprinter. Which he showed well in the race. Cruised along with DW and headed him without being asked. Skipped 2L clear with his effort and looking the winner until Englishman found his full stride. STR hanging over to the far rail as he got tired. But, a very good debut and one's of this type for Meehan used to mean 2yos that would be tried at Listed+ level and go ok. Sign Of The Zodiac the shorter SP of the Hannon pair and an ok build and size although a bit smaller than DW all round. Much greener than DW and hanging and needing to be niggled along at times. Took time to get going and plugging on HnH at the end. The type to improve notably STO for Hannon and presumably OR85+. Mick Channon often runs two in the race and they usually start at long SPs and the prices not always informative about relative merit. When he runs two there is typically one ok/good one and the other fails to win at Open Maiden level and probably OR60s leaking into low OR70s. Cay Verde at the longer odds and a less taking type than BITJ. Just plugged on here without really showing anything much. On other circumstantials he seems more likely to be the 'struggler'. One to check out whether to oppose NTO with his 'Newbury 6th' & 'Race Working out Well' notes compressing his price. Bungle Inthejungle a better type and seems to have shown up better in the gallops. On pedigree he ought to be a useful 2yo sprinter and ok early. Ran a bit freely here and then hung badly left when asked to make his 2F out effort and that was that. If you believe he was running on the worst ground that the opposite view of BITJ to CV on his STO run. One to check to see whether his debut 10th has made him a value price. Edged Out a smaller filly and got adrift for no obvious reason than greenness or lacking pace. Trainer gets his debut runners very fit so more than a niggle that her 'finish' to 6th just amounted to a fit horse plugging on at her pace into better horses who were folding. Suspect for real Open Maiden level. Premier Steps the other filly in the race and the exact opposite of EOut. Bigger type and matched up well to the males. Able to go the pace fine. Despite some hanging produced a real forward effort which got her to 3rd. Faded notably which hid that promise. A good prospect to follow. A surprise to see Inka Surprise at such a short price. On profile he looks like a cheap one who was there to give the owners a 'day out' before he dropped back to the Bath Auction race he looks more suited to. But, in Paddock Review the reason shows through. Just above medium size but very strongly built and muscular quarters. Complete and balanced physically and carried himself well. So, a real OR80+ type rather than a day out. Another to run better than the result reads. Travelled ok, made a forward effort to 4th despite being green and then faded which hid that promise. Ok to follow. Paul Cole has run three in the race in 2009-11 and all have rated OR85+ over the 2yo season although one failed to win while another was sold on to Godolphin. Carlton Blue on the SP borderline for an OR80+ one for the trainer in a race of this strength. Seemed to run settled and has the excuse of running on the worst ground for the late race fade. But, see how he goes STO. Rare Newbury debut for Michael Bell with Fils Anges. Trainer typically picks out solid 2yos to run early although they can need the debut to develop from and some can take time to develop to show their full potential. Some of the early runners can be better class. The SP here unusually short. Ran widest on the worst ground with jockey Spencer (the Human Sail) holding him out wide early and perhaps to try to get him to settle but ploughing up the softest ground. Green late on and a typical jockey easing when he wasn't responding. Another to expect to improve notably STO and in a false position here for various reasons. [Update = Bell on his website in 22nd news piece = "On Friday we had the three runners at Newbury. The first of these was Fils Anges who was making his race course debut. He raced up prominently early on, but dropped away in the second half of the race to give a disappointing effort. We know he is better than this and maybe just needs a bit more time but I am sure you will see a much better effort on his next start. " |