BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2012 Season Race Result
Race 35 : Tue, May 1st
Yarmouth 2:10, 5.2f Maiden Auction (5)


[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.

Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.
GOING TIME RcPc Video VP
HV 70.63
[Compare]
0Link None


Horse SP [EST]Run Wnr Trainer Dw Hf Run Notes
1Just Past Andover1.63494 W. G. M. Turner 4
1
Supp 2/1, B1 1Clr Immed, Fre Erl & Hld, X to StdsRL+1f RcAlone, SFre & Hld for 2f, 2.5CLr Hf, Eff-1f+, Po, po-0.5f
2Otto The First2.25232 J. R. Best 2
2
Supp 5/2, AP Rlxd, B-1 PNgl Resp, Ld CentGrp+1f SFre & Hld, Ngl Hf, Dv-2f+, po ins-2f SHgR, Fd-1f
3Simply Dreaming7.5111 M. D. Squance 6
5
B-3, Last Erl Resp, H-2 +1f, Ngl+2f SInx Resp, SPrg-2f+, SOutpcd-2f, po, Fd ins-1f
4Reberty Lee4.573 N. Quinlan 5
3
Drift 11/4, PRh-1, H-1 Erl, 2R+1f Sttld, Ngl+2g, Dv-2f+ ModResp, Whip ins-2f NoResp, Fd-1f & Whip
5Grapes Hill8.5-251 M. E. Rimmer 1
4
Supp 14/1, B-1 PLh-2 Wdst, Resp Erl, SEff+1.5f Cent, DvHf SInx NoResp, HgL-2f Inx LsGrnd, Fd ins-1.5f
NROrla's Rainbow J. Berry 3
NR = Self Cert (Ringworm)



SUMMARY
Meeting had to pass an early morning Inspection. 8mm of rain by 08:00am on the day then light showers. Going HV from HVS and Going Stick reading is from 07:00am. Note that the course has been Vertidrained since the last meeting. Stalls in Centre Track. Stiff NE Wind = Half Tailwind from the Left.

Very, Very, Slow Time. The previous race at course this year was a slow pace in GSS going run in 66.92s and the field walking home. The slowest at the course since start 2004 was 67.82s by the tiny Aboyne on GS in 2005. This race seconds slower than either of those and there will be 6f races run at other tracks in faster times this year. The fastest 6f race here in 2010-11 was in 71.5s. Which is useful background to factor in before getting excited about a "9L Winner". Second race a 3yo maiden won by a filly on her STO in 68.55s carrying 5lbs less than JPA.

Worth also noting where the horses raced. JPA running freely and too strong for his inexperienced jockey (grandson Payne) who was on his second ride back from breaking his thumb two weeks ago. Jockey let JPA hang over to the Stands' Rail early and raced alone there with the others running more Centre track. Jockey said afterwards that trainer Turner had told him to go down the rail as that ought to be the "least worst" going. Second race a 3yo maiden and the 1st two home were STO runners who ran closest to the rail. The beaten 4/5f raced away from the rail and being niggled along to keep competitive before 2F out. That 3yo maiden favourite rated OR77 and on his 11th run but had run well enough on soft a few days ago. Possible he was just beaten by a bigger pair with more potential but the Rail seemed to be a real advantage.

Unappealing race in Profile with 'issues' with all three runners who had run before and taken on by two cheap ones from trainers with little by way of a record with juveniles. JPA the only one of the 3 with form who had shown solid fom but had looked a short-runner. An extended 5f on heavy did not seem likely to be best suited to letting him prove he stayed 5f. When he started pullling early that looked a problem in that context. But, he did not fight for his head so racing with some control. He raced alone so wasn't being pestered by another and probably racing on the best strip. Which, as his jockey said afterwards, meant that he was able to do a piece of work on the horse as if he was at home. And the time says that he was able to set a usable pace and get an easy lead despite the conditions and the visual appearance of his jockey braced to hold him. Somewhere around OR70 seems about right and this win at Auction level probably confirms the view that the Brocklesby Changeover Point was a little bit in front of him.

Trainer Bill Turner interviewed after the race and quite informative in a brief exchange although the person interviewing him missed the interesting points so did not question him further about them. Turner said that although he had heard people knocking the Brocklesby he had always though JPA was up to that standard. He said he had heard the first 3F in the Brocklesby had been timed as being run much too fast so a 4th place by JPA, having led, surrounded by 'Closers' at the finish was ok. Turner blamed the jockey for the early fade at Bath LTO saying the 'young boy' had 'bust him' (ie JPA) once to get from a wide draw to the rail then 'bust him' again by going too hard. Which means if you look back to the Brocklesby the filly in 3rd made ground before halfway into the stiff pace and still made a real forward effort. Which would mean you would have to excuse Mayfield Girl for her poor STO effort. At Bath a newcomer for Milton Bradley - Indian Affair - came across from an even wider draw with JPA and then hassled him, which was what the 'young boy' reacted too in error and Indian Affair finiished a bit in front of JPA despite being on debut compared to JPA's 3TO & running more freely. How seriously to take Indian Affair STO? Turner also interesting in saying that before the Brocklesby he had '3 he could not split' and he usually sent the best he had ready there. He said that 2 of the 3 got sore shins before the Brocklesby (in that brief bit of warm, dry weather before it started raining for a month - this April the 'wettest for 100 years' or whatever) which meant JPA went to Doncaster on the first day. One of the other two was Hillbilly Boy, who was the other? Lady Phill?

John Best seems to have settled into running a few competitive 2yos in an early batch. This year he has had a debut win by Mossgo here and an unplaced run by Hats Off, in a tough race in retrospect, and that one remains an ok prospect. Otto The First did not look like he fitted that template FTO where he was fizzy in the prelims and green in the race. Even allowing for the lack of nous his debut effort in a weak race was totally uninspiring and a small one who seems to lack umph and not move that well. Which makes 9/4 seem like a short price in a weak race. One of those prices based on not having proved how limited he is yet rather than on anything positive. There are another 1,000+ races to go yet and you will be able to get 9/4 on horses with real positive efforts and profiles. Why not wait for some value. Left in the lead in the centre when JPA went to the rail so perhaps running on slower ground. But looking the smaller limited type and still not one to follow.

Reberty Lee definitely 'packed it in' LTO and might have done on debut. On both occasions he found nothing in later race and started hanging left. Drifting in the Market here for a trainer who usually knows what quality he has. More of the same in later race here with no response and the jockey getting busy with the whip to see if that had any effect. Has now run three races on soft going and not been able to pick up after going the pace ok and what combination in that of poor attitiude, physical problem and not handling the going? Given he has probably qualified for a Nursery mark worth at least seeing whether he ever gets some support on better ground if the stable think they have 'fixed' whatever is broken with him. Or whether he ends up in sellers.

Hard to judge the other pair given they were beaten miles running slow times for tainers who do not get strong debuts even if they have a usable 2yo. On circumstantial evidence some interest in Simple Dreaming because trainer Squance, despite on-course appearances, seems another of those thorough trainers with small strings who gets the most out of his 2yos at some point. In the last 3 years since he started he has had just six individual runners and the 5 that made their debut for him have finished 7th or worse FTO. But, he has had a 20/1 STO win and two 3TO places at 100/1 & 11/1. Each of those were by his first runner in each of the 3 years. Which means SD peaking to show up well S/3TO is perfectly possible, and at any SP (Market-huggers take note).

Conditions = "£3,500 guaranteed For 2yo sold or bought in as yearlings by public auction at 'specified sales', or as 2yo up to and including May 31st, 2012, for £21000 or less before July 1st, 2011, or for £24000 or less after June 30th, 2011 (last sale to govern the price if sold more than once) Weights colts and geldings 9st, fillies 8st 9lb Allowances for each £4000 paid under £24000 1lb (for the calculation of allowances for horses sold before July 1st, 2011, an additional £3000 should be added to the horses' auction price) Entries 7 pay £ 17"

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