British 2yo Racing - 2012 Race Result :- 56 : Fri, May 11th - Lingfield Park AW 2:15, 5f Maiden (5)

BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2012 Season Race Result

Race 56 : Fri, May 11th
Lingfield Park AW 2:15, 5f Maiden (5)

2012 Season Home
2012 Results

[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.

GOING	TIME	RcPc	Video	VP
STD	59.35 [Compare]	1	Link	None

	Horse	SP	[EST]	Run	Wnr	Trainer	Dw	Hf	Run Notes
1	Lady Phill	3	41	3	D	W. G. M. Turner	7	1	Drift 5/2, BOk Wd, Ngl Erl Resp, Ld+0.5f, XF+1f Cmf, TvCmf-2f, IncrPc ins-2f, 1Clr-1f Eff, Po, 2Clr-0.5f, poLt
2	Sutton Sid	6	40	1	S	G. Baker	6	5	B-2 Inx P-2, Dv Erl TTR, 7th+0.5f, Prg+1.5f Wd, Ngl+2f SInx, Dv-2f Cent, po-1f SInx, FdLt
3	Opt Out	2	39	1	N	M. Johnston	2	4	Supp 5/2, B-1 PNgl STTR, Resp+0.5f & 4th RL, Ngl+2f SInx SHgR, SHgR Bnd, po-1.5f, 2nd ins-1f, po, FdLt
4	Augustinian	4.5	34	1		R. Hannon	8	2	Drift 7/2, B-1 Wdst Sinx P-1, Dv Erl Resp, Eff to 2nd+0.5f, XF+1f 1Wd, Sfre for 1f, Dv-2f Bnd, po, 2nd ins-1f, Fd-0.5f
5	Pairumani Prince	12	33	1		E. A. L. Dunlop	3	6	B-1 PLh-2, TTR Erl JkQt, 3R+1.5f RL Sttld, Dv-2f+ SInx, po-1.5f, FdLt
6	Birdie Queen	14	25	1		J. R. Best	5	3	BkWL, Ld Erl, H-1 +0.5f & Hdd, Allow XFrs+1f & H-1 & 2R Sttld, RLWL, Eff ins-2f, po, Stall-1f+, Fd ins-0.5f
7	Epsom Flyer	14	17	1		P. M. Phelan	4	7	B-1 SInx, LsGrnd Erl JkQt, -8L+1f Ngl, SHgR+1.5f, Adf-2f, JkQtOv, NPIR
8	Tough Question	33	-34	1		M. Madgwick	1	8	BOk PVerrLh-2 Open Crs, Dv Erl TTR, Adf+1f, SMvAwk Dwnhill JkQt, NIR

SUMMARY

Normally a Turf Meeting but presumably on the AW track because the Turf course is too wet to use.

Stiff Westerly Wind = Tailwind for First 3F and Crosswind from the Left in the Home Straight.

George Baker in early April about Sutton Sid= "A pure speedster and has shown me enought to suggest that he'll be our first juvenile runner this season. He has a very good head on him and is a quick learner. He's done all I have asked of him and hopefully he will win his maiden quickly and go on to better things. He is certainly the most precocious of our team.". Then a quote on his website on Apr 23rd = "Not our first 2-year-old runner after all, but Sid will be out soon. Windsor and Goodwood are options in the next couple of weeks.". Trainer waiting for some drier ground that has not come so runs here - Quote from his website blog = "'Sid' has been ready to go for a while now, and we were hoping to start off on a straight track on turf. Instead, we end up going around a bend on the allweather. 'Sid' is a fine prospect, but he will benefit massively from the experience....".

Fast time but faster condtions and a Strong Tailwind for more than half the race. Folowing race a 5f handicap won in 58.39s by OR83 rated 5yo carrying 5lbs more before the A7 factored in.

Quality for the future seems to key on whether any of the males beaten can imporve past . Race set up with a good size filly in LP who has shown solid form and was the fittest and most competent ont he day by some way. Also receiving 5lbs and another 7lbs for the untidy apprentice (Turner's grandson and hard to imagine he could look that disorganised for other trainers). But, the jockey had the big advantage of keeping out of the way of the horse was getting the job done. LP got to the rail attended by the free-running Augustinian and the jockey said he knew he was travelling well. Which meant the jockey essentially did not move until the last 1F mark when asking LP for an effort which pulled her another 1L clear having gained 1L int he straight just by her natural rhythm and competence. Strong finish. Lookes in the OR75-82 range on this although lacking scope. But, the type Turner might win another one with and perhaps even without putting her in his favourite race - a claimer.

Sutton Sid's 1yo picture does him no favours and he looks like a 'Big Dog' and where are you going to have room to sit? Since he cost €60k you wonder whether it is the wrong picture or does he have a fantastic pedigree which made the price? The answer is 'No' to the pedigree question and then read Baker's blog and he clearly thinks he is an OR80+ ready 2yo sprinter. He still is not big but has grown a bit and filled out. He moves well and looks the 'complete' article already so matches the Baker quotes to some extent. Is he OR80+? Green here and lost 4L at the start and running wide most of the way. Still going forward until close to the finish but perhaps on the concrete strip in centre track. Not a long term prospect but ought to be capable of OR75+ through to mid-season and see how he develops.

Mark Johnston introduced a batch of his best 2yo sprinter in 2011 in early May but this year the ones so far seem to be 'ok' rather than the better types that win FTO. Opt Out a typical smaller 'Pivotal', compact and strongly enough made and looks a sprinter. A little smaller than SS but stronger. Not fit enough here and also running green at times. Similar view to Sutton Sid for the future.

Which suggests that the Changeover Point is behind Augustinian. Hannon has said on his website recently that 'if in doubt, wait it out' referring to the wet weather (April the wettest on record in many areas and the Drought restriction rescinded in places). Augustinian was entered in early season so has been ready to go for some time. Hannon debut runs for the Queen tend to be above average readiness so this one ought to be ready. The question is why is he starting early? It ought to mean he is a good one because a small one they would just wait with. His pedigree says 5F is a bit short but Hannon will run anything over 5f to get it started. Medium sized and stronger in front. More a sprinter shape and ready type lacking obvious strong scope which perhaps means the early start. Got to attending the pace from wide draw and then ran too freely. Still in 2nd into the last 1F but a fade as the clueless ones plugged on by. Probably another OR70s type that might rate OR80+ without having longer term prospects.

Pairumani Prince a cheap retainee at the sales for owner breeders Anamoine (aka Windflower) but is he a 'Snow Fairy' who went the same route? First runner for Ed Dunlop who tends to run a bit of 'Surplus Stock' early and strong debuts are rare unless fr Key arab owners. Recent picture suggests a ready OR60s type. Chunkier than that billing although smaller type in review. Plugged along on the back of the cast of ok 'OR70s' types in 2nd-4th in the straight and finished close enough to raise the question of whether he is a bit better than the OR60s (say OR65) billing. On balance, probably not.

MOTSpot e.g. for longer term reference - after a spell of just tipping the horse who was the 'Safest Option' the Sporting Life Website decided this was the race to widen the tipping out a bit. Gave Tough Question as the tip and the only reasoning seemed to be because he was a half brother to two 5f 2yos. No mention that they were some time back and the mare's output was getting less. No mention that this one had attracted no bid at the sales and was by a sire not that helpful for precocious 5f. And definitely no mention of the fact he was with a trainer who has never had a 2yo winner, leave alone produce a FTO winner on a fast, technical 5f, against a solid enough group on profile. More tipping with no basis and no underlying principles.