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York 4:10, 5f Novice (3) |
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| Horse | SP | [EST] | Run | Wnr | Trainer | Dw | Hf | Run Notes | ||||
| 1 | Lastchancelucas | 8 | 55 | 2 | m | D. Carroll | 1 | B2, 2R+0.5f Sttld, Ld-2f+, Po-2f, po-1f, Chalgd-0.5f Resp, po, FdLt | ||||
| 2 | Hoofalong | 25 | 49 | 1 | M. W. Easterby | 5 | B-2 SInx, Ngl Erl TTR, & 7th, Resp+0.5f SPrg, 2R Hf TvCmf, SwcL-1.5f, Eff ins-1.5f, Po, po ins-1f, FdLt | |||||
| 3 | Mrs Brown's Boy | 5 | 45 | 2 | m | R. Harris | 2 | B-1 PSawk, H-2 Erl, -2.5L Hf, Dv-2f, Po-2f, po-1f+ SHgL, Fd-0.5f | ||||
| 4 | Lucky Lodge | 40 | 41 | 3 | A | M. E. Brittain | 4 | B1, Ngl Erl Resp, Hdd-2f+, po-2f, 4th-1f Stall, Fd-0.5f | ||||
| 5 | Tatlisu | 2.25 | 39 | 2 | m | R. A. Fahey | 3 | Supp 11/4, BAwk-2 JkUnbal PLh-8 SBuck, TTR Erl, -12L +1.5f, Po-2f, 5th-1f+, po, Fd ins-0.5f | ||||
| 6 | Botanic Garden | 5.5 | 30 | 2 | M | D. H. Brown | 7 | B-1, Resp Erl, Fre+0.5f & Hld, QHld+1f Unbal & LsGrnd, Dv+2f TTR, po-2f+, SwcL-1.5f Cent, po, Fd-0.5f | ||||
| 7 | Citius | 7 | 25 | 3 | R. Hannon | 8 | BOk PAwk-1, Resp Erl, SFre+0.5f & Prg, Dv-2f+, po-2f, Fd-1f, Eased-0.5f | |||||
| 8 | Cumbrian Craic | 4 | 24 | 2 | m | T. D. Easterby | 6 | Drift 7/2, BOk, H-1 Erl, 2R+0.5f SFre & Hld, Ngl Hf, Dv-2f+ SOutpcd, po-2f, Fd-1f, Eased-0.5f | ||||
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Good going from SGS 2 days prior with just 0.2mm rain (Tues) since last Friday. Going Stick reading from 08:00am. Medium WNW Wind = Quarter Headwind from the Left. Stalls Centre Track Fahey wrt Tatlisu on his York summary on the SLife website the day before = "... is a nice two-year-old we run in Novice Stakes. He's just grown and I'm a bit worried he's just gone a little on the leg but he did well to win first-time-out and he's improved for that experience. He could be a nice horse, it will take a decent one to beat him, and he's entitled to be favourite. He'd have a big chance and I'll make him my £50 charity bet.". That's two uses of 'nice' and another yellow card for an unquantified 'decent'. Decent = a quality not a performance level. Baffling stuff and the sort of race that can entice you into thinking there was an advantage in racing Centre to far side (as the first 5 home did) compared to the three drawn high who filled the last 3 places. Having 4 of the shortest SPs in the last 4 places and never competitive fuels the desire for that sort of thinking. But, overall races on day did not fully support that view. Racing at the track often seems to bring similar results to Ascot where baffling results come along and then are not upheld in later events. Both tracks have been relaid in the last 10 years with major fdrainage work added. As ever, those associated with each course noisily deny any biases and indulge in various ruses to 'prove' their point. Using the one race to fit their model as the only example to work from and, conversely, adding races together from different meetings as a 'sample' when it suits although they are unconnected. Using 'Draw Numbers' when it suits and ignoring where the horses really ran. A solid approach is probably to treat the first 5 home as one 'Race' and that makes a reasonable result to analyse. Then treat the last 3 home - BG, Citius & CC - separately. Lastchancelucas ridden by an A7 again and attended the stiff pace ok and made a solid effort off it. Again showed his willing attitude to respond to a late challenge despite tiring. Still looks an OR77-83 type and this just ordinary 'Novice' form. Hoofalong running on the same day as Hoof It making his return on the Group 2 on the card so could have been a 'Day Out' runner. Worth noting that Hoof It ran down the stands side of his group and never got involved despite being the highest rated horse involved and the 25/1 winner plus 3 of the 1st 4 home raced much further over. The Cheka the one runner in that race to go well from the stands' side. Nut, Hoofalong a solid size and travelled well behind the leaders. Able to make the same effort as the winner but tired a bit earlier having looked the likely winner. Ought to be real OR75+ but perhaps not much higher. Trainer has mixed record with developing runners off placed debuts. Mrs Brown's Boy medium to smaller and compact. Raced farthest over and just a so-so run and suggests his debut win suspect in a peculiar GDWD race on bad ground. Rather than being a good effort to win FTO and indicating a better types. Looks more a nursery type. Lucky Lodge set the stiff pace and perhaps running on the borderline of the ok strip. But, still fading earlier than those wider. But, one of two good runs by Mel Brittain 2yos at the meeting following good runs in the Brocklesby then blowing out on bad ground at Beverley. OT70ish. Tatlisu the easiest of the fancied runners to fail to explain. Broke awkwardly and the jockey got unbalanced. This seemed to unsettle the horse and he did not pick up and a mild buck in response to the jockey being in the wrong place. Perhaps 12L down after 2F and closed up to be 5th (getting past the stands side runners too early to be real without some external help) and onto the back of the first 4 home. Faded before the finish for that effort but had probably made up 5-6L after halfway. But, the ground he lost holds down the rating and even the 22 perhaps high. Showed enough making up ground to suggest he is real OR80+ and perhaps has the scope to fulfil th trainer's pside view of him. Botanic Garden ran too freely on debut and did well despite that. Jockey tried to hold him up here and the horse got unbalanced before halfway and lost 2L. Rather than letting him get setled the jockey then went from holding him up to driving him along in a stride (how to confuse a horse, part one). Now chasing the stiff and perhaps on worse going. Unable to make ground until the jockey swerved him over to centre track as Tatlisu closed through. Some response but then an early fade. Inclined to put it down as a run to forget and has more ability than this result suggests. Citius not convincing as better type and some sort of OR77-82 type and the Market seemed to suggest that. Ran a bit freely on the Stands Side of the group and the early fade showed. Adds some evidence to the bias theory. Cumbrian Craic either disappointing and over-rated for debut or was running on a slower strip. Never really going the pace and niggled along early (as Hoof It was in his race before sticking at it to get to 5th). CC unable to raise and later race effort and is better than he showed here and should be OR80+. Bad Day to write off or over-rated? |